Climate Change and Fossil Fuels

1. Climate Change and Fossil Fuels Will running out of oil help mitigate global warming?

2. Outline • Climate change signals • Climate models and projections • Peak oil (and natural gas and coal) • Will fossil fuel limits have an effect? • Conclusion

3. The Past

4. Mean global temperature – single number version

5. Mean global temperature - distribution

6. Energy Balance “Earth’s Energy Imbalance: Confirmation and Implications” James Hansen, et al. Science 3 June 2005 308: 1431-1435 – Current imbalance of 0.85±0.15 W/m2

7. Total anthropogenic carbon emissions

8. CO2 concentration

9. Methane concentrations

10. Temperature change - natural or anthropogenic?

11. The Future

12. Model scenario indicators

13. Climate “Forcings”

14. Model projections

17. Energy and fossil fuels

18. Total ~400 Quadrillion Btu Coal Geothermal, wind, solar, etc. Gas Biomass RE (13.4%) Nuclear Hydro Oil (34.9%) World energy use World: ~84 million barrels/day; US: ~21 million barrels/day

19. US oil production

20. US production peak Approximately 30 out of 40 largest producers have crossed a peak

21. BP reserves Peak models – world production USGS (BP + 50%)

22. Discovery vs. consumption

23. Discovery and production

24. dQ = kQ(1 – Q/Q∞) dt US Production and Logistic Model

25. dQ = kQ(1 – Q/Q∞) dt Modified Logistic Time-dependent Qtotal (Gb)

26. World Reserves and R/P

27. Production and R/P Ratio

28. Production and R/P Ratio

29. EIA Predictions The U.S. DOE/EIA's International Energy Outlook 2001 (IEO2001), stated the following concerning future U.K. oil production: "The United Kingdom is expected to produce about 3.1 million barrels/day by the middle of this decade (~2005), followed by a decline to 2.7 MMb/d by 2020.“ 1999: 2.909 MMbd; 2000: 2.667; 2001: 2.476; 2002: 2.463; 2003: 2.257 MMbd 2004: 2.028; 2005: 1.808 MMbd In the IEO2003, the U.S. DOE/EIA stated the following concerning Norwegian and North Sea oil production: "The decline in North Sea production is slowed as a result of substantial improvement in field recovery rates. Production from Norway, Western Europe's largest producer, is expected to peak at about 3.4 million barrels per day in 2004 and then gradually decline to about 2.5 million barrels per day by the end of the forecast period (2025) with the maturing of some of its larger and older fields.“ 2001: 3.4 MMbd; 2002: 3333; 2003: 3264; 2004: 3188; 2005: 2969

30. Most Recent Predictions (June 2006) In the IEO2006 reference case, … (p)roduction from Norway … is expected to peak at about 3.6 MMbd in 2006 and then decline gradually to about 2.5 MMbd in 2030 ... The UK sector is expected to produce about 2.2 MMbd in 2010, followed by a decline to 1.4 MMbd in 2030.

31. Natural Gas National Petroleum Council (1998) US Prod. Import from Canada 1998 550 Bcm 90 Bcm 2010 725 Bcm 120 Bcm 2015 780 Bcm • Now the numbers are more like … • 1998 550 Bcm • 550 Bcm • 540 Bcm • 526 Bcm And Canada peaked in 2002 at 188 Bcm and expects a decline of 2.5% per year

32. Natural Gas in the US (per day) EIA Statistical Review of World Energy data

33. U.S. Coal Production

34. U.S. Coal Production Lower quality coal Energy Information Administration – Annual Energy Review 2005 http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/aer/coal.html

35. Tar Sands • Alberta, Canada • Effectively a mining operation • Current production of 106 bbl/day of synthetic crude oil • Estimate ~3 MMb/d in 10 years, 5 MMb/d in 25 years • Needs large amounts of NG and water, plus hazardous waste disposal • EROEI is perhaps 2:1 – 8:1 The plan now is to expand capacity from the present 155,000 barrels a day to more than 500,000 by 2015. This will require many billions of dollars of further investment in mining and upgrading facilities. Malcolm Brinded Executive Director Exploration & Production, Royal Dutch Shell plc http://www.shell.com/static/media-en/downloads/speeches/mb_oxford_energy_seminar.pdf

36. Oil Shale • Western U.S. • Possibly 800 billion barrels !! • A mined product • Techniques proven in principle, but not at large scale • Only profitable with oil >$75/bbl • High growth, optimum scenario – 106 bbl/d in 2025 or later. • EROEI is estimated at ~2:1 – 4:1 Rand Corp. report for US DOE, Nat’l. Energy Tech. Lab.

37. Ethanol from Corn Yield for ethanol from corn is ~70 GJ/ha (@9000 kgcorn/ha) Automobile + light truck transportation uses ~1.7×1010 GJ/a Quick calculation: we would need 2.4×108 ha of land Currently we have in the US 1.2×108 ha of cropland total But … the key point missing is the energy input. Ethanol from industrial-scale corn farming is barely an energy break-even. Energy return on Energy invested (EROEI) ratio is ~1. GHG emissions are only slightly less than for conventional gasoline. D.Pimentel and T. Patzek, Natural Resources Research 14, 65-76 (2005) Shapouri - USDA “The Energy Balance of Corn Ethanol: An Update” Ag. Econ. Report 813 Farrell et al., Science 311, 506-508 (2006)

38. Fossil fuels and CO2

39. SRES - Oil

40. SRES - Oil

41. SRES - NG

42. Oil and CO2

43. Natural Gas and CO2

44. Coal and CO2

45. Total CO2 – Middle Scenarios

46. 2100 Model output – CO2 concentration

47. Model output - Temperature

48. Peak fossil fuel scenario

49. Stop burning fossil fuels? “The Climate Change Commitment” T. M. L. Wigley 18 MARCH 2005 VOL 307 SCIENCE

50. Keep burning at same rate? “The Climate Change Commitment” T. M. L. Wigley 18 MARCH 2005 VOL 307 SCIENCE