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On the North Pacific reduced skill in near-term climate predictions of sea surface temperatures

On the North Pacific reduced skill in near-term climate predictions of sea surface temperatures. Virginie Guemas With the collaboration of : Francisco Doblas-Reyes, Fabian Lienert, Hui Du, Yves Soufflet. Our focus : Seasonal to decadal prediction. Francisco J Doblas-Reyes : The Head

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On the North Pacific reduced skill in near-term climate predictions of sea surface temperatures

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  1. On the North Pacific reduced skill in near-term climate predictions of sea surface temperatures Virginie Guemas With the collaboration of : Francisco Doblas-Reyes, Fabian Lienert, Hui Du, Yves Soufflet

  2. Our focus : Seasonal to decadal prediction Francisco J Doblas-Reyes : The Head Hui Du : Initial perturbations, sea ice Javier García-Serrano : AMO, African monsoon Virginie Guemas : Sea ice, North Pacific skill Fabian Lienert : regionalisation, PDO Melanie Davis : climate services Danila Volpi : initialisation techniques Luis Ricardo Rodrigues : ENSO, statistical models Aida Pintó : extremes Muhammad Asif : EC-Earth Oriol Mula-Valls : system administrator Domingo Manubens : autosubmit developer We share, on request : Autosubmit Our decadal hindcasts Monthly sea ice restarts R diagnostic functions We run on : Marenostrum ( Spain ) ECMWF HECTOR ( Scotland ) Lindgren ( Sweden ) Our local cluster

  3. On the North Pacific reduced skill in near-term climate predictions of sea surface temperatures Virginie Guemas With the collaboration of : Francisco Doblas-Reyes, Fabian Lienert, Hui Du, Yves Soufflet

  4. The climate prediction exercise Fig. 2 of Meehl et al. (2009, BAMS)

  5. The climate prediction exercise Multi-model ensemble system with coupled initialized GCMs Model 1 Model 2 Model 3Model 4Model 5Model 6 Obs Nov 60 Nov 65 Nov 70 Nov 75 Nov 80 ... Leadtime = 10 years

  6. The climate prediction exercise Multi-model ensemble system with coupled initialized GCMs Model 1 Model 2 Model 3Model 4Model 5Model 6 Obs Nov 60 Nov 65 Nov 70 Nov 75 Nov 80 ... Leadtime = 5 years

  7. The climate prediction exercise Multi-model ensemble system with coupled initialized GCMs Model 1 Model 2 Model 3Model 4Model 5Model 6 Obs Nov 60 Nov 65 Nov 70 Nov 75 Nov 80 ... Leadtime = 2-5 years

  8. The climate prediction exercise Multi-model ensemble system with coupled initialized GCMs Model 1 Model 2 Model 3Model 4Model 5Model 6 Obs Nov 60 Nov 65 Nov 70 Nov 75 Nov 80 ... Leadtime = 2-5 years

  9. The climate prediction exercise Multi-model ensemble system with coupled initialized GCMs Model 1 Model 2 Model 3Model 4Model 5Model 6 Obs Nov 60 Nov 65 Nov 70 Nov 75 Nov 80 ... Leadtime = 2-5 years

  10. 2m atmospheric temperature skill Correlation modelled and ERA40 T2M. Leadtimes : 2-5 years CERFACS UKMO IFM-GEOMAR ECMWF DePreSys EC-Earth

  11. Sea Surface Temperature skill Correlation modelled and ERSST SST. Leadtimes : 2-5 years CERFACS UKMO IFM-GEOMAR ECMWF DePreSys EC-Earth

  12. Sea Surface Temperature skill Correlation between multi-model ensemble-mean and ERSST SST

  13. Which major events are missed ? Sea Surface Temperature anomalies (155°E-235°E, 10°N-45°N) CERFACS UKMO IFM-GEOMAR ECMWF DePreSys EC-Earth

  14. Outline Links with well-known variability modes ? Mechanism explaining the 1963 event Mechanism explaining the 1968 event Possible cause for the failure of forecasting systems

  15. Outline Links with well-known variability modes ? Mechanism explaining the 1963 event Mechanism explaining the 1968 event Possible cause for the failure of forecasting systems

  16. Two major warmings in the North Pacific Ocean in 1963 and 1968 155-235°E 10-45°N Sea Surface Temperature anomalies (155-235°E 10-45°N ) Upward surface heat fluxes anomalies (155-235°E 10-45°N ) Da Silva et al. (1994) total OAFluxes turbulent Da Silva et al. (1994) turbulent ERSST

  17. No links with the main modes of variability Monthly values http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/climateindices/ 12-month running mean

  18. Outline Links with well-known variability modes ? Mechanism explaining the 1963 event Mechanism explaining the 1968 event Possible cause for the failure of forecasting systems

  19. 1963: 3-dimensional structure of the anomaly NEMOVAR temperature anomaly profile (180-205°E – 35-45°N) Pattern of ERSST anomalies (155-235°E 10-45°N ) °C

  20. 1963: advection of the anomaly Hoevmuller ERSST anomalies ( 35°N-45°N latitude band) NEMOVAR backward trajectories computed with ARIANE °C April 1963 November 1960 ARIANE ( http://stockage.univ-brest.fr/~grima/Ariane/)

  21. 1963: modulation of the amplitude by mixing Hoevmuller ERSST anomalies ( 35°N-45°N latitude band) NEMOVAR climatological mixed layer depth ( 35°N-45°N ) °C m

  22. Outline Links with well-known variability modes ? Mechanism explaining the 1963 event Mechanism explaining the 1968 event Possible cause for the failure of forecasting systems

  23. 1968: 3-dimensional structure of the anomaly NEMOVAR temperature anomaly profile (170-235°E – 10-35°N) Pattern of ERSST anomalies (155-235°E 10-45°N ) °C

  24. 1968: upward transfer of the anomaly NEMOVAR temperature anomaly profile (170-235°E – 10-45°N)

  25. 1968: amplification by the atmosphere forcing NEMOVAR temperature anomaly profile (170-235°E – 10-45°N) Wind speed anomalies (170-235°E, 10-35°N) NCEP DFS4.3

  26. Outline Links with well-known variability modes ? Mechanism explaining the 1963 event Mechanism explaining the 1968 event Possible cause for the failure of forecasting systems

  27. Stratification in the Pacific Ocean FMA mixed layer depth (density criteria) in m NEMOVAR-COMBINE EC-Earth v2 CERFACS IFM-GEOMAR

  28. Conclusion North Pacific region = region of lowest skill in near-term climate predictions ( 2- 5 years ) Major warm events around 1963 and 1968 missed by every forecasting systems = main cause for the low skill 1963 : heat anomaly advected along the Kuroshio-Oyashio and confined to an increasingly thinnner mixed layer 1968 : deep heat anomaly transferred toward the surface and then amplified by the atmospheric noise Biases in the Pacific ocean stratification could be responsible for the failure of the forecasting systems

  29. Thanks for your attention vguemas@ic3.cat

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