The Prometheus Process: Creating And Executing Winning Strategies

1. The Prometheus Process: Creating And Executing Winning Strategies Overview

2. The Tactically Focused Organization

3. Good Tactics Are Important—But Not Sufficient • Tactics Are The Basic Actions of Any Organization—Flying, Shooting, Selling, Making, Serving • But Superior Tactics Don’t Guarantee Success, and Success Doesn’t Require Superior Tactics • Military • The United States and Vietnam • Business • Apple And The IBM Personal Computer • Superior Tactics Rapidly Lose Effectiveness Over Decreasingly Short Periods of Time • The Drive-through Window • Price Discounts

4. 2nd Strategic Phase Tactical Phase 1st Strategic Phase Terminal Phase Value Cycles Strategy • An Organization Without Strategy Is Dependent On Luck or Genius For Success • Strategy Is The Number One ResponsibilityOf All Leaders And Managers • And Should Be Of Great Interest And Concern To Everyone In An Organization • Strategy Is The Game Plan To Create The Future—To Win—Even In The Face Of Resource Constraints Or Hostile Environments • Maximizes Reward, Minimizes Risk • Leverages Resources • Leads To Long-term Success • Provides Context, Meaning, Value, Direction, And Alignment For Every Tactical Action

5. The Strategically Focused Organization

6. Government Retailer TV, Radio, &Print Media Venture Capitalists & Banks ? Innovators Interest Groups Transport Consumer Competitor 2 Supplier’s Supplier CompanySupplier YourCompany Competitor 1 ? Direct Customer ? The Business World

7. Complex Unpredictable Government Transport YourCompany Venture Capitalists & Banks CompanySupplier Interest Groups Direct Customer Competitor 2 Supplier’s Supplier TV, Radio, &Print Media ? Competitor 1 ? ? Consumer Retailer Innovators Fickle Random Tough Uncooperative High Risk How We Perceive Business World Characteristics

8. Government Transport YourCompany Venture Capitalists & Banks ? Competitor 1 Consumer Retailer TV, Radio, &Print Media Innovators ? Supplier’s Supplier Direct Customer Competitor 2 ? CompanySupplier Interest Groups Action • Tactical/Single Point How We Typically Deal WithOur Business World Stimulus • Problem • Opportunity • Hunch

9. Government YourCompany Transport Venture Capitalists & Banks ? ? Retailer TV, Radio, &Print Media ? Innovators Interest Groups Direct Customer Competitor 2 Consumer CompanySupplier Competitor 1 Supplier’s Supplier Outcome ProbabilitiesAs A Result Of Typical Tactical Actions Bad Outcome Sector = ~90% Tactical/SinglePoint Action Good Outcome Sector = ~10%

10. Good Outcome Sector = ~75% Government Transport YourCompany Venture Capitalists & Banks Direct Customer Innovators Consumer ? ? TV, Radio, &Print Media Retailer Interest Groups Competitor 1 Competitor 2 Supplier’s Supplier CompanySupplier ? Strategic, Parallel Operations Against The Whole System Bad Outcome, Low Risk Sector = ~ 25% Methodology To IncreaseProbability of Success High Definition Picture Of Desired Outcome System Understanding And Thinking System Steering Through Parallel Operations Strategic Plans To Deal With Variation

11. Cost of Operations The Ideal Plan: Highly Compressed, Highly Parallel Serial Domain Parallel Domain Time Value of Action High Ps Low Likelihood of Achieving Objectives Very Short Very Long Time Required To Affect Centers Of Gravity Associated With Any Strategic Enterprise

12. Strategic Measures To Define Success And Failure Strategic Change Points • Imminent Strategic Success Advance Agreement To Change Strategic Path When Strategic Measures Dictate • Looming Strategic Failure • Seismic Events Strategic Plans To Deal With Variation • Descent Into Serial World Commitment To Fast-Fail Methodology To Decrease Risk

13. Design the Future Target for Success Campaign to Win Finish with Finesse The Prometheus Strategy Process Knowing That Value Lies In The Future Where Develop Future Picture, Measures Of Merit, Guiding Precepts Knowing That Everything Happens In Systems What Identify Systems And Centers Of Gravity Understanding Difference Between Serial And Parallel Operations How Develop Parallel Campaigns Against Centers Of Gravity Recognition That Everything Ends And That Error Is Common Exit Exit Points And Exit Plans Defined In Advance; Executed Quickly When Indicated

14. Design the Future Where? Measures of Merit Guiding Precepts What? Target for Success External System Internal System Campaign to Win How? Succeed Exit? Finish with Finesse Life Cycle Curve Fail Start Prometheus Process CARDINAL RULES OPEN PLANNING Strategically Aligned Organization

15. Cardinal Rules Where What How Exit Design The Future Target For Success Campaign To Win Finish With Finesse Environment Relevant Systems Parallel Attack Exit Points Future Picture Centers of Gravity Organization Termination Plan Guiding Precepts Desired Effects Orchestration Reconstitution Measures of Merit The Prometheus Process Steps For Strategic Success

16. Exit? Where? What? How? The Promethic Laws • Every Action Affects The Future • Specific Actions Create A Specific Future • Every Thing And Every Action Happens In A System • All Systems Have Inertia And Resist Change • All Systems Have Centers Of Gravity • Systems Change When Their Centersof Gravity Change • The Extent And Probability Of System Change Is Proportional To The Number Of Centers Of Gravity Affected And The Speed At Which They Are Affected • All Known Systems And Things Have A Beginning And An End • Specific Actions Produce Specific Ends

17. The Prometheus Process Planning And Execution Abstract Strategy Is Answering The Four Questions Where? What? How? Exit? The Strategic Plan FutureDesign SystemsDesign CampaignDesign End-GameDesign The Strategic Actions Win!And Proceed To Next Strategic Level Organize, Schedule, Orchestrate Campaign in Parallel Make Systems Change Execute End-Games

18. Steps To Build And Execute A Prometheus Grand Strategy Assumptions 1. Scope The Environment Develop A Common Understanding of The Environment You Operate In Disruptors/Trends 2. Establish Strategic Context Define Scope and Timeframe For Grand Strategy Write Key Descriptors Layout A Future Picture Aligned With Key Descriptors Based On Scope Defined Above 3. Develop Future Picture Measures of Merit Layout Values That Define Organizational Behavior Prime Directives & Rules of Engagement 4. Develop Guiding Precepts Recognize Your External System And How It Needs To Change System Energy &Desired System Effects 5. Sketch External System External Centers of Gravity Identify Critical Elements of the External System and How They Need To Change. 6. Map External System External StrategicImpact Plans Internal Centers of Gravity Identify Critical Elements of the Internal System and How They Need To Change. 7. Map Internal System Internal StrategicImpact Plans Future Picture Assessment Assess Each Center of Gravity As To Its Relative Importance To Achievement of The Future Picture 8. Prioritize Key Descriptor Alignment Phase Effort Against Centers of Gravity Across Campaigns and Resources 9. Build Master Effects Plan Organize Centers of Gravity Into Campaigns To Optimize Resources and Assign Campaign Responsibility 10. Establish Campaigns Campaign Teams Campaign Teams Develop Action Plans For Each Center of Gravity and Strategic Impact Plan 11. Write Action Plans Complex Centers of GravityTreated As Systems Campaign Teams Develop Fractal Systems For Complex Centers of Gravity 12. Develop Fractal Systems Fractal StrategicImpact Plans 13. End Game Planning 14. Red Team Assessments

19. External System Construction Government Logistics cast members Innovation Security Accounting Rides ? Stores Marketing Sales Force Company Execs ? ? CEO, Board Buildings Banker Competitor 2 CompanySupplier Competitor 1 ? ? Consumer Direct Customer Interest Groups Innovators Venture Capitalists & Banks TV, Radio, &Print Media Retailer YourCompany Transport ? Supplier’s Supplier Internal System Succeed Life Cycle Curve Start The Business Strategy Process Design the Future Target for Success Campaign to Win Finish with Finesse Realize Picture And Start Move To Next Level Identify Centers Of Gravity Start With The Future Affect In Parallel Epcot Center Future Picture For Disneyland ~1953

20. Plan and Operate In The Open Use Three Echelon Approach--And Red Team!

21. The Cardinal Rules • Time-tested, Easy-to-remember, Strategic Rules To Improve Probability Of Success At All Levels Of Operations • Use In Planning And In Execution

22. Company Division Region Office Shift Project The Prometheus ProcessAt Every Level

23. The Prometheus Organization • Has A Well Articulated, Fully Understood And Accepted Strategy Guiding Whole Organization • Understands Process And Uses The Vocabulary • Is Committed To Open Planning • And Red Teaming • Has Campaigns To ChangeCenters Of Gravity Underway At All Levels • Is Using Cardinal Rules Throughout Organization • Is Moving Towards Higher Value (Profits, Service, Victory)

24. 2 AugInvasionCrisis! 8 Aug – Gen Schwarzkopf call for help 10 Aug – Gen Schwarzkopf accepts “Checkmate” concept 15 Aug – Abbreviated draft to President 10 Sep – Gen Schwarzkopf says ready to execute Bureaucracy response—make old ideas/plans fit “Checkmate” creates “top down” plan geared to new situation 11 Aug – Gen Powell, CJCS, accepts concept 17 Aug – Full Ops Plan to Gen Schwarzkopf Proto-Prometheus PlanningIn Fast-Time Aug 1990 Sep 1990

25. The Value Of Strategy In WarTwo Cases

26. Business SuccessThrough Strategy Company Valuation Millions

27. Business SuccessThrough Strategy

28. Strategy • Strategy Has Two Crucial Purposes • Raise Probability Of Success • Reduce Cost Of Failure • Don’t Leave Home Without It!

29. Overview Conclusion Think Strategically Focus Sharply Move Quickly

30. PrometheusProcess Prometheus Process Overview Insights and Discussion Photo Credits: (Methodology to Decrease Risk, Mountain Climber, BigSkyPhotos License) (Future Picture Graphic, J Warden photo of Renoir’s Luncheon of the Boating Party) (The Promethic Laws, J Warden Photo of Prometheus Statue in front of Rockefeller Center, NYC) (The Business Strategy Process, M Cline Photos of Walt Disney Statue and street in Disneyland, Disneyland, CA)