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Support capacity of the Meteorological Service of Canada to SWFDP in the Carribean region

This presentation highlights the capacities and services of the Meteorological Service of Canada in supporting the SWFDP in the Caribbean region. It discusses the main offices, operational capabilities, and past and future contributions of the Canadian Centre for Meteorological and Environmental Prediction. The presentation also showcases various forecast models and products available for regional forecasting and outlines the assistance that can be provided in the event of natural disasters.

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Support capacity of the Meteorological Service of Canada to SWFDP in the Carribean region

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  1. Support capacity of the Meteorological Service of Canada to SWFDP in the Carribean region RA IV Experts Group Meeting for SWFDP Fort-de-France, Martinique, 13-15 December 2016 André Giguère M.Sc. andre.giguere@canada.ca Canadian Centre for Meteorological and Environmental Prediction Meteorological Service of Canada

  2. Canadian Centre for Meteorological and Environmental Prediction • Where are we, what are we, what do we do. • Our capacities, from global to regional to local • What we have done in the past, • What we can do in the future.

  3. CCMEP: Where are we Main offices of the Meteorological Service of Canada 4700 km GANDER CMAC-W 5400 km CMAC-E JMC WINNIPEG EDMONTON DARTMOUTH (incl. CHC) MONTRÉAL VANCOUVER CCMEP (CMC) DORVAL TORONTO

  4. Canadian Centre for Meteorological and Environmental Prediction: What are we? Also known as “Canadian Meteorological Centre” : a critical center of the Meteorological Service of Canada • National Meteorological Center and NWP Center (24/7, year round) • Emergency response capacity • WMO RSMC for nuclear emergency response. • ICAOVAAC: Volcanic Ash Advisory Center. • Unique operational capacity, services to various departments: Defence, Fisheries, Coast Guard, Health, Natural Res. , Air navigation • Superinformatics support, telecom network operation and IT mngmt serving ECCC 24/7 also located mostly at CMC (GTS hub)

  5. CCMEP: What do we do: NWP, mostly The NWP Process involvingResearch, Development, Operations • Data acquisition (Sat., aerology, aircrafts, surface, radar, buoys etc.) • Data assimilation and analysis • Numerical Weather Prediction (Running the models) • Post-processing (Product generation) • Dissemination (Regional, national, international) • Verification (Post-event evaluation of forecast performance) • Training (Meteorologists initial training and career development)

  6. Our capacities:from global to regional to local Months to Year CanSIPS: 2 coupled climate models, 20 members, 30 yrs hindcast, 1 / 3 months forecast up to 9 months leadtime; probabilistic and anomaly forecasts 1 to 4 weeks Global Ensemble Prediction System (GEPS); NAEFS: Hor. Res. 50 km, 4 analysis cycle per day, 256 members in EnKF assimilation, 20 fcst members, 2 x16 days fcst / day Resolution Few days to 2 weeks Global Deterministic Prediction System (GDPS): Horizontal resolution 25 km, 4 analysis cycle / day, 2 x 10 day fcts / day Minutes to Hrs Nowcast 1 to 3 Days Regional Ensemble Prediction System (REPS): Horizontal resolution 15km, 20 members, 2 x 72h fcsts / day Regional Deterministic Prediction System (RDPS): Hor. Res. 10 km, 4 anal. cycle (tied to GDPS) / d, 4 x 48-54h fcsts / day High resolution DPS: Hor. Res. 2.5 km, no assimil. 4 x 48h fcsts / day Minutes to Hours Urban-scale modeling system Forecast period covered

  7. What we can do in Region IV • Assist , especially in case of natural disaster threat or their aftermath: possibility of interaction with senior forecasters team • Shareexisting NWP products: • Deterministic: global, regional • Ensemble: Global, Regional (15km) • NAEFS (global, soon regional) • Createspecific products (deterministic / ensemble): on tailored domains, or by using our model data publicly available in grib format • Improveour Regional ensemble : soon 10km with larger domain and NAEFS) • Training(En/Fr): online or welcoming trainees in our training center; can be done in collaboration with M-F and/or NOAA. Hurricane Matthew over Haïti MODIS image captured by NASA’s Terra satellite

  8. Example of what we have done in the past • As major global centre, we supported the meteorological service of Haïti in the aftermath of the 2010 earthquake • Several senior meteorologists sent to La Martinique to assist in forecasting, and training of Haitian colleagues • To assist during tropical storm season, set of special products for Haïti (ensemble and deterministic based ), some still in operational production, and 24/7 availability of senior meteorologists for assistance and consultation https://media1.britannica.com/eb-media/29/145429-004-5962943D.jpg

  9. Ensemble Forecast (NAEFS: CCMEP + NCEP)Hurricane Matthew

  10. Ensemble Forecast (NAEFS: CCMEP + NCEP)Hurricane Matthew

  11. Ensemble Forecast (NAEFS: CCMEP + NCEP)Hurricane Matthew

  12. Deterministic Forecast (CCMEP GEM-Global)Hurricane Matthew

  13. Thank you • Merci Photo: Global News

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