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1. National Risk and Interdependency Analysis for Switzerland Klicken Sie, um das Thema zu bearbeiten ULRIKE KASTRUP World Congress on Risk, June 22-25, 2003, Brussels/Belgium

2. History of Risk Analysis • Threat Analysis for Switzerland 1987 • Comprehensive Risk Analysis for Switzerland (1991-1999) • Parliamentary motion and postulates –for a current, proactive, and inclusive assessment of all national threats and risks that takes into account their complexity and interdependencies . • “Risk Profile Switzerland 1999” , 34 Scenarios (unpublished) • 1999 – Transfer to Swiss Institute of Technology (ETH Zurich) / Center for Security Studies • - stronger academic / international focus

3. Classical Definition Risk? RISK = damage x probability

4. Comparison of Scenarios – not ‘worst-case’! probability Breakdown of Information Infrastructure I very likely II Greenhouse Effect Extremism Terrorism likely Use of WMD Energy Shortage little likely Chemical accident Dam break III unlikely IV Failure in Nuclear power plant very unlikely damage very little little moderate big disastrous crushing After: Risk Profile Switzerland (1999, unpublished)

5. Risk Profile ‘99 • Disadvantages • Same structure – corset, falsifies; “comparing apples and pears” • Technical/natural science approach, social sciences approach unconsidered • Reality is more complex – interdependencies remained unconsidered • Unsuitable as strategic base for allocating means/funds (political process) • Advantages • same structure of study allows comparison • Pilot project – compilation of vastly different scenario types from natural sciences, technology, military, social sciences fields

6. Comprehensive Risk Analysis Risk Analysis XXI In the future: Risk and vulnerability analysis

7. RiA XXI Project Environment CE N T E R F O R SE C U R I T Y S T U D I E S Prof. Dr. Andreas Wenger, Director Research Team „Swiss Security Policy“ Research Team „Integrated Risk Analysis“ Creation Knowledge Application Exchange DSP GR GST DAP BWL others NAZ BK Spiez BZS International Focus Swiss Focus

8. Scenarios 2003 37 scenarios, 16 already updated http://www.ssn.ethz.ch/ssnpublihouse/index.cfm?S=3

9. Content: Scenarios A Basics (definitions); situation in Switzerland and abroad BScenario (Switzerland and foreign countries) CStatistics and probability DPotential damage E Hazard/threat, risk and early warning time FInterdependencies GConsequences for Switzerland HLegal basis and responsibilities IReferences

10. Risk? • QUANTIFICATION of risks in the area of social sciences is difficult to impossible  quantitative COMPARISON OF RISKS in security politics that comprises political as well as non-political hazards and threats cannot be performed to everybody‘s satisfaction  restricted to INTERDEPENDENCIES– no comparison!

11. RiA XXI NEW • PROCESSvs. Profile – cooperative and interactive with experts • Understanding of hazards: HOLISTIC AWARENESS (Gesamtbewusstsein) vs. “One Final Product” • SECURITY POLITIC CONTEXT vs quantification • POOL vs direct comparison • INTERDEPENDENCIES vs. isolated scenarios • role of Switzerland in the broader INTERNATIONAL environment (Europe, World)

12. Switzerland's International Role NPPs in Europe in a radius of up to 1000km from Switzerland Scenario NPP failure (M. Baggenstos (HSK) und M. Blätter (NAZ), 2003)

13. Interdependency active • Individual scenarios that influence other elements without being influenced themselves • Influenceand are influenced • Are strongly influenced by other elementswithout influencing themselves. critical passive

14. Possible Chain Reaction Interdependency Diseases / epidemics Chemical accident Failure NPP Earthquake water shortage/ pollution Dam break Flood Multi criteria analysis (MCA), Morphological analysis, Systems thinking, Scenario-based methods, Causal mapping techniques, Fault / event tree analysis, Hierarchical holographic modeling, Software evaluation (ICI Think Tools, Computer Aided Scenario and Problem Evaluation Routine – CASPER…

15. Workshop • Extensive discussion of interdependencies between individual risks with local experts • Identification of critical risk-clusters, which are used to demonstrate and evaluate the full complexities of the consequences of particular events – consequences that would likely be overlooked if a catastrophic event were investigated independently • The risk and interdependency analyses will eventually allow local authorities to determine and formulate appropriate responses to all risks investigated

16. What are potential consequences of a war on Iraq for Switzerland? brainstorming

17. What are potential consequences of a war on Iraq for Switzerland? interdependencies

18. What are potential consequences of a war on Iraq for Switzerland? Creating better overview

19. What are potential consequences of a war on Iraq for Switzerland? Further refinement -how strong? -short, middle, long term? -who can intervene?

20. Contact Dr. Ulrike Kastrup Center for Security Studies ETH Zentrum / WEC CH-8092 Zürich Switzerland Tel. +41 (0) 1 632 04 07 Fax +41 (0) 1 632 13 72 E-mail kastrup@sipo.gess.ethz.ch Websites: International Relations and Security Network (ISN): www.isn.ethz.ch Comprehensive Risk Analysis and Management Network (CRN): www.isn.ethz.ch/crn Swiss Foreign and Security Policy Network (SSN): www.ssn.ethz.ch