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Disruptive Demographics: Implications for K-12 Education in South Carolina

February 2014 . Disruptive Demographics: Implications for K-12 Education in South Carolina . James H. Johnson, Jr. Frank Hawkins Kenan Institute of Private Enterprise Kenan-Flagler Business School University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. OVERVIEW. Demographic Trends

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Disruptive Demographics: Implications for K-12 Education in South Carolina

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  1. February 2014 Disruptive Demographics: Implications for K-12 Education in South Carolina James H. Johnson, Jr. Frank Hawkins Kenan Institute of Private Enterprise Kenan-Flagler Business School University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill

  2. OVERVIEW • Demographic Trends • Challenges & Opportunities • Discussion

  3. CENSUS 2010 what will REVEAL February 2014

  4. 6 DISRUPTIVE TRENDS • The South Rises – Again • The Browning of America • Marrying Out is “In” • The Silver Tsunami is About to Hit • The End of Men? • Cooling Water from Grandma’s Well… and Grandpa’s Too!

  5. The South Continues To Rise ...Again!

  6. SOUTH’S SHARE OF U.S. NET POPULATION GROWTH, SELECTED YEARS, 1910-2010

  7. U.S. POPULATION CHANGE BY REGION, 2000-2010

  8. SHARES OF NET POPULATION GROWTH BY REGION, 2000-2010

  9. NET MIGRATION TRENDS, 2000-2008 = Net Import = Net Export

  10. STATE SHARE OF SOUTH’S NET GROWTH, 2000-2010

  11. GROSS AND NET MIGRATION FOR THE SOUTH, 2004-2010

  12. U.S. POPULATION CHANGE BY REGION, 2010-2013

  13. SHARES OF NET POPULATION GROWTH BY REGION, 2010-2013

  14. STATE SHARES OF SOUTH’S NET GROWTH, 2010-2013

  15. Continued Uneven Population Growth in South Carolina, 2010-2012 Dying Counties Growth Magnets Spartanburg Dorchester Beaufort Richland Lexington York Berkeley Greenville Charleston Horry • McCormick • Union • Edgefield • Colleton • Fairfield • Williamsburg • Bamberg • Calhoun • Clarendon • Marlboro • Abbeville • Marion

  16. THE “BROWNING” OF AMERICA

  17. U.S. Immigrant Population, 1900-2011

  18. U.S. Foreign Born Population by Race/Ethnicity, 2011

  19. U.S. POPULATION CHANGE BY RACE & ETHNICITY, 2000-2010

  20. NON-WHITE AND HISPANIC SHARES OF POPULATION GROWTH, 2000-2010

  21. Marrying Out is “In”

  22. INTERMARRIAGE TREND, 1980-2008 % Married Someone of a Different Race/Ethnicity

  23. INTERMARRIAGE TYPES Newly Married Couples in 2008

  24. MEDIAN AGE OF U.S. POPULATION BY RACE, HISPANIC ORIGIN & GENDER, 2009

  25. Median Age and Fertility Rates for Females in South Carolina, 2007-2011 Fertility/1000 Demographic Group Median Age women* All Females 38.8 56 White, Not Hispanic 42.2 51 Black 34.9 61 American Indian & Alaskan Native 37.4 93 Asian 34.6 49 Native Hawaiian & Pacific Islander 26.5 161 Some other race 24.6 98 Two or more races 16.3 59 Hispanic 24.6 94 Native Born 39.0 55 Foreign Born 37.2 80 Source: www.census.gov *Women 15 to 50 with births in past 12 months.

  26. RELATIVE DISTRIBUTION OF U.S. BIRTHS BY RACE / ETHNICITY Source: Johnson and Lichter (2010); Tavernise (2011).

  27. THE SILVER TSUNAMI

  28. U.S. POPULATION CHANGE BY AGE, 2000-2009

  29. U.S. POPULATION TURNING 50, 55, 62, AND 65 YEARS OF AGE, (2007-2015)

  30. TOTAL AND ELDERLY POPULATION CHANGE, 2000-2010

  31. ELDERLY SHARE OF NET POPULATION CHANGE, 2000-2010

  32. Absolute and Percent Population Change by Age, 2000-2010 Age United States South Carolina All Ages 27,323,632 613,352 (9.7%) (15.3% ) <25 5,416,292 139,427 (5.4%) (9.8%) 25-44 -2,905,697 7,393 (-3.4%) (0.6%) 45-64 19,536,809 319,991 (31.5%) (34.7%) 65+ 5,276,231 146,541 (15.1%) (30.2%)

  33. DISTRIBUTION OF WIDOWED ELDERLY WOMEN BY COUNTY, THE CAROLINAS, 2010

  34. DISTRIBUTION OF ELDERLY WOMEN LIVING ALONE IN THE CAROLINAS, 2010

  35. DEPENDENCY RATIOS IN THE AMERICAN SOUTH Source: Census 2010

  36. Dependency Ratios for Selected South Carolina Counties [State Ratio = 73.4]

  37. COOLING WATERS FROM GRANDMA’S WELL And Grandpa’s Too!

  38. Children Living in Non-Grandparent and Grandparent Households, 2001-2010

  39. Children Living in Non-Grandparent and Grandparent-Headed Households by Presence of Parents, 2010

  40. The End of Men?

  41. FEMALE WORKFORCE REPRESENTATION

  42. JOBS LOST/GAINED BY GENDER DURING 2007 (Q4) – 2009 (Q3) RECESSION

  43. THE PLIGHT OF MEN • Today, three times as many men of working age do not work at all compared to 1969. • Selective male withdrawal from labor market—rising non-employment due largely to skills mismatches, disabilities & incarceration. • The percentage of prime-aged men receiving disability insurance doubled between 1970 (2.4%) and 2009 (4.8%). • Since 1969 median wage of the American male has declined by almost $13,000 after accounting for inflation. • After peaking in 1977, male college completion rates have barely changed over the past 35 years.

  44. COLLEGE CLASS OF 2010

  45. ENROLLMENT IN 2 YEAR COLLEGES, 2009

  46. UNC SYSTEM STUDENT ENROLLMENT BY GENDER AND TYPE OF INSTITUTION, 2010

  47. Average EOG Scores Gender scores are averages of 6 LEAs (Bertie, Bladen, Halifax, Duplin, Northampton and Pamlico)

  48. Average EOG Scores Gender scores are averages of 6 LEAs (Bertie, Bladen, Halifax, Duplin, Northampton and Pamlico)

  49. Average EOC Scores Gender scores are averages of 6 LEAs (Bertie, Bladen, Halifax, Duplin, Northampton and Pamlico)

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