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Future skill needs in Europe Medium-term forecast

Future skill needs in Europe Medium-term forecast. Alena Zukersteinova Cedefop. Cedefop. European agency for the development of vocational education and training (VET) Research, analysis, scientific advice and networking to provide evidence and support in:

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Future skill needs in Europe Medium-term forecast

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  1. Future skill needs in Europe Medium-term forecast Alena Zukersteinova Cedefop YRKESUTBILDNINGSDAGARNA - Stockholm

  2. Cedefop European agency for the development of vocational education and training (VET) Research, analysis, scientific advice and networking to provide evidence and support in: • developing/implementing VET policy • European cooperation in VET YRKESUTBILDNINGSDAGARNA - Stockholm

  3. Why skill needs analyses for Europe • to fill existing information deficits on future skill needs (for all actors on the labour market) • to support evidence-based policy-makingin LLL, employment and social policy European push: - Council resolution on new skills for new jobs (15/11/2007) - Spring 2008 Council/Presidency conclusions (13-14/3/2008) - Council conclusions on a jobs and skills initiative (9/6/2008) YRKESUTBILDNINGSDAGARNA - Stockholm

  4. What forecasts… can provide? • systematic analysis of the implications of continuation of past trends and patterns of behaviour • alternative scenarios based on alternative assumptions • basis for intelligent and informed debate and further research cannot provide? • precise predictions that can be used for detailed manpower planning (not a crystal ball) • qualitative information on skills and competences YRKESUTBILDNINGSDAGARNA - Stockholm

  5. Modular approach the Framework Multi-sectoral macroeconomic model Stock and expansion demand by occupation Stock and expansion demand by qualification Replacement demand by occupation/qualification Job openings by occupation Job openings by qualification YRKESUTBILDNINGSDAGARNA - Stockholm

  6. Shift towards services continues… YRKESUTBILDNINGSDAGARNA - Stockholm

  7. Trends by sector (EU-25+) YRKESUTBILDNINGSDAGARNA - Stockholm

  8. Sectoralnet change and structure(EU-25+) YRKESUTBILDNINGSDAGARNA - Stockholm

  9. Demographic developments create significant replacement demand… YRKESUTBILDNINGSDAGARNA - Stockholm

  10. Total demandby occupation (EU-25+) expansion demand (net change) of 13,3 million jobs + replacement demand of 51 million jobs = 64,3 million job openings 2006-2015 YRKESUTBILDNINGSDAGARNA - Stockholm

  11. Danger of polarisation of jobs… YRKESUTBILDNINGSDAGARNA - Stockholm

  12. Occupationalstructure(EU-25+) YRKESUTBILDNINGSDAGARNA - Stockholm

  13. Qualification requirements are raising across all occupations, even for elementary jobs… YRKESUTBILDNINGSDAGARNA - Stockholm

  14. Cedefop-Photomuseum Award 2007: People at work, people at training; Schlamann, A. interSHOPs. YRKESUTBILDNINGSDAGARNA - Stockholm

  15. Qualificationtrendsandstructure(EU-25+) 25,3% 29,3% 20,9 % 48,6% 46,2% 49,9% 26,2% 32,9 % 20,8% YRKESUTBILDNINGSDAGARNA - Stockholm

  16. Net changebyqualification(EU-25+) YRKESUTBILDNINGSDAGARNA - Stockholm

  17. Totaldemand by qualification(EU-25+) 2006-2015 YRKESUTBILDNINGSDAGARNA - Stockholm

  18. Challenges, risks and opportunities Challenges: a shift of skills demand globalisation demographic developments skill-biased technological change organisational change The risks the risk of mismatches the risk of jobs polarisation Opportunities for education and training policies adaptation and development of a high skilled workforce but also an optimal skills mix (more general and non-routine skills) YRKESUTBILDNINGSDAGARNA - Stockholm

  19. Future priorities in forecasting Continuing dialogue: with country expertsand stakeholders Overcome data problems: policy support needed to refine data Further refinement: the models/framework Complementary research: forecast of skills supply and more detailed analysis of skill needs at enterprise and sectoral level YRKESUTBILDNINGSDAGARNA - Stockholm

  20. On-going work & future plans • Medium-term forecast of skills supply in Europe (EU-27, 2020) and identification of possible imbalances between supply and demand – results early 2009 • Regular forecasts of skill needs and skills supply in Europe (2010, 2012) – support from DG Employment • New initiative on employers´ surveys as a tool for identification of skill needs – feasibility work started • Contribution and support to the Commission „new skills for new jobs“ initiative YRKESUTBILDNINGSDAGARNA - Stockholm

  21. Contact details for more information: Cedefop: www.cedefop.europa.eu Skillsnet: www.trainingvillage.gr/skillsnet Alena Zukersteinova alena.zukersteinova@cedefop.europa.eu Torsten Dunkel torsten.dunkel@cedefop.europa.eu Peter Szovics peter.szovics@cedefop.europa.eu YRKESUTBILDNINGSDAGARNA - Stockholm

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