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Medium-term forecast of occupational skill needs in Europe

Medium-term forecast of occupational skill needs in Europe. Alena Zukersteinova Cedefop Rob Wilson Institute for Employment Research, University of Warwick, United Kingdom. Introduction : rationale and objectives Methodology : the framework and modules

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Medium-term forecast of occupational skill needs in Europe

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  1. Medium-term forecast of occupational skill needs in Europe Alena Zukersteinova Cedefop Rob Wilson Institute for Employment Research, University of Warwick, United Kingdom Medium-term forecast of occupational skill needs

  2. Introduction: rationale and objectives Methodology: the framework and modules Results: Europe’s changing skill needs Sectoral prospects Occupations Replacement needs Implications for qualifications Summary and conclusions Overview Medium-term forecast of occupational skill needs

  3. What forecasts… can provide? • systematic analysis of the implications of continuation of past trends and patterns of behaviour • alternative scenarios based on alternative assumptions • basis for intelligent and informed debate and further research cannot provide? • precise predictions that can be used for detailed manpower planning (not a crystal ball) • qualitative information on skills and competences Medium-term forecast of occupational skill needs

  4. European skills forecastingCedefop's Skillsnet pro-active approach • comparable information Europe-wide • feasible & cost-effective First stage: demand side (skill needs - jobs) Second stage: supply side (available skills – people) and identification of possible imbalances Next stages: further improvement of methods and data bases;additional research; joint European approach Medium-term forecast of occupational skill needs

  5. Medium-term forecast of occupational skill needs Objectives: • consistent pan-European skills projections using comparable data • new methodological framework • systematic dialogue and discussion BUT data issues and concerns Medium-term forecast of occupational skill needs

  6. Team effort + INDIVIDUAL COUNTRY EXPERTS (Skillsnet) Medium-term forecast of occupational skill needs

  7. Modular approach to skillneedsforecasting Overview of the Framework Module 1: Macroeconomic and sectoral scenarios Module 2: Expansion demand by occupation Module 3: Expansion demand by qualification Module 4: Replacement demand Medium-term forecast of occupational skill needs

  8. Multi-sectoral macroeconomic model Stock and expansion demand by occupation Stock and expansion demand by qualification Replacement demand by occupation/qualification Job openings by occupation Job openings by qualification Modular approach the Framework Medium-term forecast of occupational skill needs

  9. Future trendsat a pan-European level (EU-25+) • by sector (up to 41 industries) • by occupation (up to 27 occupations) • by qualification (3 broad levels) • plus replacement demands EU-25+ = EU-25 + Norway and Switzerland Medium-term forecast of occupational skill needs

  10. Past and likely future trends by sector (EU-25+) Medium-term forecast of occupational skill needs

  11. Past and likely future sectoralstructure (EU-25+) Medium-term forecast of occupational skill needs

  12. Past and likely future sectoralchange (EU-25+) Medium-term forecast of occupational skill needs

  13. Past and likely future occupationalstructure(EU-25+) Medium-term forecast of occupational skill needs

  14. Past and likely future occupationalchange(EU-25+) Medium-term forecast of occupational skill needs

  15. Replacement demand (EU-25+) Medium-term forecast of occupational skill needs

  16. Past and likely future qualificationtrends(EU-25+) Medium-term forecast of occupational skill needs

  17. Past and likely future qualificationstructure(EU-25+) Medium-term forecast of occupational skill needs

  18. Past and likely future qualificationchange(EU-25+) Medium-term forecast of occupational skill needs

  19. Key similarities and differences across countries • Many common trends: • sectors, occupations, replacement needs, qualifications • Some differences: • stage of economic development, different industrial & occupational structures ► process of convergence Medium-term forecast of occupational skill needs

  20. Key results: summary • Further sectoral shifts towards services • Growing demand for highly and medium skilledworkers, losses for low skilled • Losses offset by replacement needs • Increasing qualification requirements across all jobsbut at the same time growing demand for elementary occupations Medium-term forecast of occupational skill needs

  21. Implications for policies Adaptation of workforce and their skills to new requirements and structural change retraining, active LM measures, up-skilling,… Prevention of skill mismatch reducing drop-outs, guidance and counselling, social policies, migration, recognition of non&in-formal learning ►INVOLVEMENT OF STAKEHOLDERS AND SOCIAL PARTNERS Medium-term forecast of occupational skill needs

  22. Achievements to date • consistent and comprehensive projections for EU-25+ • valuable insights for policy makers and others • sound foundation for further development ► ongoing process: need to improve data and methods Medium-term forecast of occupational skill needs

  23. Future priorities Continuing dialogue: with country expertsand stakeholders Overcome data problems: policy support needed to refine data Further refinement: the models/framework Complementary research: forecast of skills supply and more detailed analysis of skill needs at enterprise and sectoral level Medium-term forecast of occupational skill needs

  24. Contact details for further information: Rob Wilson Institute for Employment Research, University of Warwick R.A.Wilson@warwick.ac.uk Skillsnet: www.trainingvilage.gr/skillsnet Alena Zukersteinova Cedefop alena.zukersteinova@cedefop.europa.eu Medium-term forecast of occupational skill needs

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