1 / 23

Progress in the development of national baseline scenarios

This report presents the progress made in the development of national baseline scenarios, comparing base year emission inventories, key assumptions, and environmental impacts. It highlights the differences between national and international statistics and discusses the implications for emission ceilings.

ggunther
Download Presentation

Progress in the development of national baseline scenarios

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Progress in the development of national baseline scenarios M. Amann, J. Borken, J. Cofala, Z. Klimont International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) Working Group on Strategies, Geneva, April 12-15, 2010

  2. Contents • Available scenarios • Comparison of base year emission inventories • Key assumptions in national projections • Environmental impacts • Conclusions

  3. Data sources of draft national projections for Gothenburg Protocol revision: energy

  4. Data sources of draft national projections for Gothenburg Protocol revision:Agricultural projections

  5. Review process • Activity data, emission factors and resulting emissions were prepared for review: http://gains.iiasa.ac.at/index.php/policyapplications/gothenburg-protocol-revision • Additional comments and material sent by 18 countries have been implemented by February 2010. • Most countries that have sent national scenarios provided also info on control strategies (e.g., national interpretation of flexibilities in the Commission's proposal for IED). • Transport emission factors and assumptions about turnover for all EU and EFTA countries based on COPERT IV model. • Further feedbacks invited for March 15, but many countries commented after this date. Not all of these comments are already implemented.

  6. State of play on country comments

  7. Base year inventory for 2005 For many countries there are disagreements between national and IEA energy statistics • Two versions in GAINS: • National scenario: use of national statistics • PRIMES scenario: use of IEA/PRIMES statistics There are differences between national inventories reported to CEIP and GAINS estimates • National inventories are moving targets as national inventories for 2000 and 2005 keep changing • Main reasons for disagreement: • Different energy/activity statistics • Missing sources in national inventories • GAINS uses COPERT emission factors • Insufficient communication with national experts

  8. Emission estimates for 2000 and 2005GAINS estimates (draft) vs. CEIP Aug2009 inventoryPROVISIONAL RESULTS SO2 NOx NH3 VOC

  9. PM2.5 emission estimates for 2000 and 2005GAINS estimates (draft) vs. CEIP Aug2009 inventoryPROVISIONAL RESULTS PM2.5

  10. Comparison of assumed GDP growthbetween 2005 and 2020

  11. Comparison of oil prices assumed in national scenarios for 2020

  12. Comparison of carbon prices assumed for 2020National scenarios vs. PRIMES C&E package

  13. National projections: Energy National scenarios, if available PRIMES 2008 Climate & Energy Package, if available IEA World Energy Outlook 2009 Agriculture National agricultural projections, if available CAPRI projections FAO 2008 projections PRIMES 2009 baseline(basis for envisaged NEC proposal): Energy PRIMES 2009 baseline, if available (current national energy and energy policies, no full achievement of C&E package targets) IEA World Energy Outlook 2009 Agriculture CAPRI projections FAO 2008 projections Baseline emission projections + Current policies on air pollution (national policies + advanced EU proposals)

  14. Assumed GDP growthin National and PRIMES scenarios National scenarios assume higher GDP growth than PRIMES2009

  15. Baseline emissions projections for 2020PROVISIONAL RESULTS

  16. Baseline emission projections for 2020SO2 PROVISIONAL RESULTS

  17. Baseline emission projections for 2020NOx PROVISIONAL RESULTS

  18. Baseline emission projections for 2020NH3 PROVISIONAL RESULTS

  19. Baseline emission projections for 2020VOC PROVISIONAL RESULTS

  20. Baseline emission projections for 2020PM2.5 PROVISIONAL RESULTS

  21. Loss in statistical life expectancyPROVISIONAL RESULTS

  22. Excess of CL for acidification in forest soilsPROVISIONAL RESULTS

  23. Conclusions • National projections received from 18 countries. • There are differences in statistical data for 2000 and 2005 between national and international statistics. Implications for emission ceilings? • National scenarios do not employ internationally coherent assumptions on economic development, climate policy, oil prices, etc. • While for some countries differences in emission projections between national projections and PRIMES2009 are significant, differences in calculated environmental impacts are limited.

More Related