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Development of the NEC baseline scenario State of play

Janusz Cofala, Zbigniew Klimont International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA). Development of the NEC baseline scenario State of play. National scenarios provided for the NEC review. Available energy and CO 2 projections.

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Development of the NEC baseline scenario State of play

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  1. Janusz Cofala, Zbigniew KlimontInternational Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) Development of the NEC baseline scenario State of play

  2. National scenarios provided for the NEC review

  3. Available energy and CO2 projections • PRIMES “with climate policy” scenario 2004 used for CAFE (“PRIMES CAFE”) – all MS • PRIMES baseline projection 2005 (“PRIMES 2005”) – all MS • National energy projections for NEC, late 2005, - 19 MS • National CO2 projections submitted in the “Policies and Measures” reports, July 2005 – 12 MS • National CO2 (and energy) projections reported in the 4th National Communications to UNFCCC, March 2006, – 11 MS

  4. Energy projectionsEU-25 2020 2020 2020 1990 2000

  5. 2005 energy projections for 2020 (1)[PJ]

  6. 2005 energy projections for 2020 (2)[PJ]

  7. 2005 energy projections for 2020 (3)[PJ]

  8. Comparison of CO2 estimates for 1990excl. LULUCF

  9. CO2 projections for 2010relative to 1990 (provisional GAINS estimates)

  10. CO2 projections for 2020National CO2 vs. National NEC energy projections,relative to 1990(provisional GAINS estimates)

  11. CO2 projections for 2020National NEC energy projections vs. PRIMES,relative to 1990(provisional GAINS estimates)

  12. Conclusions • Some inconsistencies between national CO2 and NEC energy projections not yet resolved – further consultations • There are differences between national and PRIMES energy projections for MS • Both projections are likely to exceed in 2020 - at EU level - the Kyoto target for 2012 • This is relevant because air pollutant (baseline) emissions and control costs are sensitive towards the stringency of the GHG/CO2 target

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