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Peter Boisen (ENGVA chairman) peter@boisen.se

Biogas significance on a national level. Peter Boisen (ENGVA chairman) peter@boisen.se. EU REPORT ON ALTERNATIVE FUELS (DEC 2003):.

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Peter Boisen (ENGVA chairman) peter@boisen.se

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  1. Biogas significance on a national level Peter Boisen (ENGVA chairman) peter@boisen.se

  2. EU REPORT ON ALTERNATIVE FUELS (DEC 2003): “Natural gas is the only alternative fuel with the potential for a significant market share well above 5% by 2020 which could potentially compete with conventional fuels in terms of economics of supply in a mature market scenario.’’

  3. ALTERNATIVE FUEL TARGETS AND BIOFUEL OPPORTUNITIES The 2020 EU strategic target for 20 % alternative fuels (about 62 Mtoe or 720 TWh) used for road transports includes up to 8 % bio-fuels, 10 % natural gas, and 2 % hydrogen. In the time horizon up to 2020 any significant volumes of bio-fuels would consist of bio-diesel, bio-ethanol, or bio-methane. Other new synthetic bio-fuel alternatives (methane, methanol, DME, ethanol, FT diesel, and hydrogen) would not, due to required investments and lead times, be able to play a significant role within this time frame.

  4. BIO-METHANE PRODUCTION AND USE The total EU-15 production of biogas in 2002 was 2.8 Mtoe or about 32 TWh. Most of this gas was used to produce heat and electricity. Sweden and Switzerland have been leading a development where the biogas is upgraded to a quality at least on par with natural gas and suitable for direct use as a vehicle fuel, or allowing injection of pure bio-methane into the natural gas grid, and withdrawal from the grid, for vehicle use, at convenient locations according to a ‘green gas’ principle. To allow domestic production of bio-methane as a vehicle fuel it may be necessary to reduce national fiscal support of biogas used for electricity generation. Demands for additional RES electricity could instead be met via wind power or wave power. Bio-methane from crops will yield three times more fuel per hectare than bio-diesel or bio-ethanol.

  5. BIO-METHANE POTENTIALS The EU-15 alternative fuel targets could be expressed as 25 Mtoe (288 TWh) bio-fuels, 31 Mtoe (360 TWh) natural gas, and 6 Mtoe (72 TWh) hydrogen, a total of 62 Mtoe (720 TWh). The total EU-15 bio-methane potential in 2020 was in 2003 estimated by Eurobserver to 18 Mtoe. Later estimates provided in the Altener BIOCOMM project report in mid 2005 raise the potential to not less than 90 Mtoe corresponding with about 20 % of the total EU-15 use of natural gas, or the equivalent of 29 % of all fuel used in road transports. The two most important feed stocks are energy crops and manure. A separate 2005 report from the Austrian UBA states an Austrian potential of 27 % of all fuel used in road transports. A study released in January 2006 by the German Wuppertal Institute shows that bio-methane produced via fermentation of maize or manure, or in the longer term bio-methane via thermal gasification of biomass (wood), could be offered at costs competitive with conventional fossil fuels. This report also for 2020 suggests a German potential equal to 10 % of all natural gas consumed in Germany (currently about 11 Mtoe or 128 TWh which corresponds with about 18 % of the road transport fuel consumption).

  6. Production costs and net CO2 effects The Wuppertal report (Jan. 2006) includes the following estimates: g CO2/kWh c€/kWh RME (rape) 99,2 5,0* Methane (manure) -10,4 6,9 Methane (wood gasification) 26,1 7,0* BTL (wood gasification) 36,0 7,2* Methane (maize) 34,5 9,2* Ethanol (wheat) 170,1 12,2* * Different assessments of the value of the land used would have a significant impact on the costs. Swedish cost estimates are generally much lower than those shown above. Increasing prices for fossil fuels will make the bio-fuels competitive with the conventional fuels.

  7. Yields MWh/ ha from crop based biofuels (data from recent German and Austrian studies)

  8. SYNERGIES BETWEEN NATURAL GAS AND BIO-METHANE Fossil natural gas is available on a large scale, provides an alternative to crude oil, and buys time in the long term transition to completely renewable fuels. As shown on earlier slides bio-methane has the long term potential to replace 10-30 % of conventional road fuels (in addition to the 10 % natural gas targeted by the EU)! Methane produces less CO2 emissions than any other hydrocarbon fuel and gives minimal emissions of toxic and reactive hydrocarbons. Vehicles run equally well on fossil or renewable methane (no mixing restrictions).

  9. WASTE POTENTIALS In addition to production based on crops, or wood, non cellulose organic waste offers a unique opportunity for production of a vehicle fuel in the form of bio-methane. In European countries this potential alone is enough to replace some 10 % of all vehicle fuels (in less developed countries an even higher share of the total fuel consumption).

  10. BIO-METHANE POTENTIAL (% of all vehicle fuels)Conventional organic waste, use of currently set-aside land, assumed 8 % of annual forest growth Source: Peter Boisen, Target 2010 Partners, May 2003

  11. Increasing international recognition of bio-methane potentials http://www.uba.at/presse/lastnews/newsarchiv_2005/news050928_1/

  12. Increasing international recognition of bio-methane potentials http://www.bmu.de/erneuerbare/energien/doc/36142.php

  13. Increasing international recognitionof bio-methane potentials Sweden and California Link on Biogas Task Force Source: California NGV Partnership Wednesday, 02 November 2005: Lena Sommestad, Swedish Minister for the Environment, and Terry Tamminen, Cabinet Secretary to Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger of California, recently laid the groundwork to start a cooperative task force investigating development of a transport system based on biogas in California. According to a ministry release, Sweden has the largest fleet of biogas-fueled vehicles in the world, which has shown steady annual growth over the past few years at a rate of 15-20 percent.Given that California has the nation's largest agricultural economy, and has set the target of reducing emissions of carbon dioxide by 80 per cent by 2050, CALSTART identified opportunities to develop biogas systems in the state, focusing on measures in the transport sector. CALSTART will be working with Cabinet Secretary Tamminen and California Department of Food and Agriculture Secretary A.G. Kawamura to develop the Biogas Task Force. The goal of the effort will be to build on the Swedish knowledge, experience, and technology and develop a sustainable California biogas industry

  14. SYNTHETIC BIO-FUELS It will take a long time and very large investments to make various proposed synthetic fuels available on a large scale. Synthetic gaseous fuels promise higher efficiencies than other synthetic fuels.

  15. Biomass Gasification FT-syngas FT-fuels 100 GWh 55.4 GWh Yield 55% Off -gas FT-fuels Biomass Gasification FT-syngas 100 GWh 19.8 GWh Yield 73% Biomethane 53.2GWh Co-generation of FT-fuels and SNG

  16. OPPORTUNITIES, BENEFITS, AND CONDITIONS • CNG instead of diesel in city buses, garbage trucks, distribution vehicles, taxi cabs and commuter cars offers fast improvements concerning city air quality (NOx and particulates). Most European cities have large difficulties in complying with the current European air quality demands. • When replacing petrol powered cars the prime environmental advantage is a very substantial reduction of the GHG emissions. • Four conditions must be fulfilled to achieve market growth • Long term government support during expansion phase • An adequate vehicle refuelling network • Standards and codes allowing European certification and homologation of vehicles and engines • A wide offer of vehicles

  17. NG (x 1) Source: IGU, Nov. 04 GERMAN NGV GROWTH 30000 600 • Increase oil prices • Sales incentives • (OEM & gas industry) 25.000 550 530 25000 500 • Establish ErdgasMobil • (by gas & oil companies) • Target 1.000 CNG stations • Fuel tax extension to 2020 • More OEM NGVs 450 20000 400 19.400 390 • Reduced mineral oil • tax (up to 2009) • Political funding • 1st OEM NGV (BMW) 350 15.000 15000 300 250 250 11.000 10000 200 7.500 190 • More OEM NGV models • 1st NGVs with under floor • gas tank • Wide NG(V) campaign • (public-private sectors) 150 120 100 140 5000 100 80 5.500 65 50 4.200 35 50 3.000 2.000 400 1.000 0 0 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Number of natural gas vehicles Number of fuelling stations

  18. French declaration – 300 public filling stations and more than 100.000 NGVs by 2010 • 04/07/2005François Loos, ministre délégué à l'Industrie, signe un protocole "Pour assurer le succès du Gaz Naturel pour Véhicules en 2010" François Loos, ministre délégué à l'Industrie a réuni, ce lundi 4 juillet, à Bercy, l'Association Française du Gaz Naturel pour Véhicules (AFGNV) et ses principaux membres : Gaz de France, Total, Carrefour, Renault Trucks, Renault et PSA Peugeot Citroën, en vue de signer un protocole pour le développement de la filière du Gaz Naturel pour Véhicules (GNV). • L'objectif pour 2010 est de doubler le parc roulant de bus, de tripler le parc des bennes à ordures et d'élargir l'utilisation du GNV au transport de marchandises en milieu urbain. Le 2e volet a pour ambition de donner au gaz naturel à l'horizon 2010 le statut d'un carburant alternatif attractif pour tous les véhicules des particuliers : des voitures capables de recevoir ce carburant avec un niveau de prestations équivalent aux autres véhicules (100.000 en 2010) ; - une distribution sous deux formes : appareil de remplissage à domicile et bornes GNV dans des stations-service classiques (300 en 2010). http://www.industrie.gouv.fr/cgi-bin/industrie/recherche.pl

  19. Fast expansion of LD NGV offers from Jan 1, 2001 Volvo Fiat Opel VW DaimlerChrysler Ford (QVM) Renault Citroen Citroën Berlingo, Citroën C3, Fiat Doblò, Fiat Ducato, Fiat Punto, Fiat Multipla, Peugeot Partner, MB E200 NGT, Opel Astra, Opel Combo, Opel Zafira, Volvo S60, Volvo S80, Volvo V70, VW Caddy, VW Golf, VW Touran – more to come…

  20. NATURAL GAS MEDIUM DUTY Mercedes Sprinter MB Sprinter Ford Transit Iveco Daily

  21. NG POWERED BUSES IN EUROPE • All but one of the major European HD OEMs now offer CNG city buses • One of these manufacturers still uses lean burn technology - all other stoichiometric EEV engines for minimal emissions (Euro 6 capability), and there is a trend towards downsized turbo engines for improved fuel efficiency • CNG buses in several European countries now account for 30-50 % of all new city bus sales • The European air quality demands is the main driving force behind the rapid growth of the CNG bus sales. NOx is already a big municipal headache in 2005, and the demands will get much tougher already in 2010. • Reduced noise and vibrations is another significant environmental benefit, and, of course, also reduced CO2 emissions (extra large with a large share of renewable bio-methane).

  22. Air quality problems and high oil prices have accelerated the use of NG buses all around the world. According to the best available statistics the total NG bus fleet now approaches 140.000 units: China 47.000, Ukraine 30.000, India 10.000, USA 10.000, Armenia 9000, Korea 6500, Russia 4600, Egypt 4600, Mexico 1700, France 1600, Bangladesh 1400, Germany 1100, Italy 1000, Canada 1000, Japan 1000, Sweden 600, Spain 250, Portugal 250, Slovakia 200, Bulgaria 150, Turkey 150 and a long range of countries with somewhat smaller fleets. Together these buses consume as much fuel as 2 million passenger cars. In addition to the buses there are worldwide more than 4 million LD NGVs. WORLDWIDE USE OF CNG BUSES

  23. Beijing plans 18.000 new buses before the 2008 Olympic games Shanghai simultaneously about 3000 France plans 1400 new buses until 2010 Iveco will deliver 400 new buses in Rome MAN will deliver 400 new buses in Turkey Worldwide short supply of high quality carbon fibre may, however, slow down developments. CNG buses (and future H2/FC buses) require roof mounted light weight carbon fibre wrapped composite tanks. This tank type is also used in some of the light duty vehicles now on the market. Reliable estimates concerning future needs of light weight cylinders are required as a base for decisions on investments in increased carbon fibre production capacity. SOME NEW CNG BUS DEVELOPMENTS

  24. In western Europe at least one commuter bus is needed on average for every 1500 inhabitants (in less developed countries even more buses per capita). A 450 million population thus needs a fleet of at least 300.000 commuter buses (with a maximum life time of less than ten years). If all new city buses would be adopted to run on methane gas this would mean annual sales of more than 30.000 new gas buses in western Europe – in terms of fuel consumption roughly equivalent to half a million new CNG passenger cars every year. EUROPEAN CNG BUS POTENTIALS

  25. The world fleet of NG trucks is around 100.000 units, most of them MD trucks using CNG tanks, but also some HD trucks using LNG tanks. For city operated vehicles like garbage trucks CNG vehicles are chosen to help reduce air quality problems, but in the commercial sector total operating costs is the decisive factor which is favouring dual fuel LNG trucks. Existing larger fleets of NG trucks include: Russia 35.000, Ukraine 29.000, Armenia 14.000, Japan 11.000, Germany 4000, Egypt 1100, Spain 500, Mexico 500, UK 500, Poland 400, France 300, Latvia 300, Italy 250, and Sweden 200 Together these trucks consume roughly as much fuel as one million passenger cars. WORLDWIDE USE OF NG TRUCKS

  26. On average there is a need of 100 garbage trucks for every 1 million of population. With 450 million people within the EU-25 some 45.000 garbage trucks (in ‘greater Europe’ 800 million people and 80.000 garbage trucks). With a ten year life time the annual replacement needs would be 4500 and 8000 trucks respectively. The total present European fleet of CNG powered garbage trucks is estimated to be below 2000 units. Madrid, where all 350 garbage trucks are new Iveco CNG trucks, provides an inspiring example to other cities. It would, within a ten year period, theoretically be possible to introduce some 50.000 new CNG powered garbage trucks within Europe – a significant niche market which could provide very substantial air quality improvements, and help to abate noise problems. EUROPEAN CNG GARBAGE TRUCK POTENTIALS

  27. To replace diesel trucks with CNG trucks, without reducing the range on a full tank, one would need 4-5 times larger fuel tanks which would be very expensive, and also reduce the cargo capacity. To significantly reduce the operating range on a full tank would be feasible for vehicles mainly used in city traffic, but not in the long haulage business. Refuelling stops would waste too much time. Other CNG truck possibilities than the garbage trucks are various medium and heavy duty vehicles only used in and around the cities. There are huge volume potentials in the medium duty segment, but more limited potentials in the heavy duty segment. Still, it is not unreasonable to assume a potential for HD CNG trucks at least on par with the garbage truck potential, i.e. another 50.000 HD trucks over the next ten years. Together these vehicles would consume at least as much fuel as a million passenger cars and provide substantial environmental benefits. OTHER CNG TRUCK POTENTIALS

  28. DUAL FUEL LONG HAULAGE LNG TRUCKS H2/FC technology has not been suggested even as a long term option for HD trucks used in long distance traffic. For these vehicles, totally some 5 million units in Europe, other alternative fuel options must be found. Annual EU sales of trucks larger than 16 tonnes exceed 300.000 units. A target of 500.000 vehicles by 2020 is not unrealistic. These trucks would consume as much fuel as 25 million cars, but allowing for up to 20 % diesel use, say 20 million cars. Dual fuel LNG trucks already today offer a viable alternative with an operating range of say 500 km. Both fuel and technology is available, but we need a refuelling network. LCNG refuelling stations every 2-300 km along all major highways would do the job. Apart from filling the LNG trucks they could also be used for refuelling of various vehicles with CNG tanks.

  29. LCNG Filling stations Costs for one station starts around € 600.00050-100 evenly spaced stations would in a country like Sweden provide a reasonable HD refuelling infrastructure, in geographically smaller countries, of course, fewer stations.Must not be installed close to NG pipelines.Could also use liquefied bio-methane, and offer a CNG alternative in areas far away from NG pipelines or bio-methane production plants

  30. FLEXIBILITY LNG gives 500 km range on gas Full cargo capacity Reduced total operating costs Environmental benefits Reduced crude oil dependence Flexibility – can drive on diesel in areas without LNG supply

  31. CUSTOMER EXPERIENCES LONDON WASTE The first UK Waste Fleet to convert entirely to gas Annual reduction of total costs around € 22.000 per truck.

  32. T BADEN HARDSTAFF Pioneers of Natural Gas trucks in the UK. In the unique position of both producing gas vehicles and operating in their own fleet

  33. LCNG PROJECT IDEA(Sweden used as example) Cryogenic purification at 20 biogas plants. Delivering pure methane in the form of LNG. Higher energy costs well compensated by income from LCO2 sales. Small scale NG liquefiers at 9 pressure let down stations able to convert up to 25 % of throughput into LNG without external energy supply. Theoretical max average annual volume 25 Mnm3/plant. 20 LCNG stations from north to south every 2-300 km along major highways, in step three another 50 stations, finally a total of about 130 stations servicing dual fuel trucks with LNG, conventional LD CNG vehicles with CNG. This eventually enables use of CNG and LNG vehicles all over Sweden. Gross investments 0,6 M€ per unit, net investment 0,2 M€ (subtracting cost of alternative CNG station). Three LNG terminals from Stockholm to Luleå, supplied via small scale NG liquefaction plants in the southwest of Sweden (back up imports). Initially some ten 28 tonne tank trucks for transports of LNG. A pilot fleet of 200 dual fuel LNG trucks in traffic along highways covered by LCNG filling stations. Net overall cost of vehicle operation results in a saving. Energy consumption for CNG delivered from an LCNG station only 5-10 % of energy used at a conventional CNG station. In third year supplying 600 buses and 27000 cars with CNG, 2800 HD trucks with LNG - an additional 2.6 TWh, or 3,5 % of the Swedish road fuels, incl. 20 % bio-methane.

  34. WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY The EU target for 20 % alternative fuels in 2020, with some 15 % made up of gaseous fuels, means a need for 45-50 million specially adapted vehicles (on average 3 million/year) . Over the next 15 years we would need average annual sales exceeding 3 million vehicles of all different types to realize this ambition. Continued fast NG infrastructure development is required in order to realize the alternative fuel targets. Large NG filling stations will also support future offers of H2/FC vehicles via local forecourt reforming of hydrogen from methane. Strong new suppliers of NGV components will also be the suppliers of gas system components used in H2/FC vehicles. The development of a large market for methane powered vehicles with a gradually increased share of renewable fuel will, in contrast to, bio-ethanol and bio-diesel support future offers of fuel cell vehicles. Thank you for your attention!

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