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Established 1980 Sponsors: WMO (1980+), ICSU (1980+) and IOC (1993+)

World Climate Research Programme (WCRP). Established 1980 Sponsors: WMO (1980+), ICSU (1980+) and IOC (1993+). Objectives To determine the predictability of climate To determine the effect of human activities on climate. Enhancing Relevance of WCRP Projects. GEWEX :

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Established 1980 Sponsors: WMO (1980+), ICSU (1980+) and IOC (1993+)

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  1. World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) Established 1980 Sponsors: WMO (1980+), ICSU (1980+) and IOC (1993+) • Objectives • To determine the predictability of climate • To determine the effect of human activities on climate World Climate Research Programme

  2. Enhancing Relevance of WCRP Projects • GEWEX: • Focuses on short-term atmospheric processes and interactions with the land surface. • Has dealt with satellite data, radiation, water and land surface processes. • CliC: • Focuses on the impacts that climatic variability and change have on components of the cryosphere and the consequences of these impacts for the climate system. • CLIVAR: • Focuses on the role of the ocean in the climate system • Also focused on climate variability and its predictability • SPARC: • Focuses on the role of the stratosphere in climate. • Atmospheric composition, chemistry and dynamics World Climate Research Programme

  3. WOCE 1990-2002 ObsAssim Panel ModelingPanel TOGA 1985-1994 GEWEX 1988  SPARC 1992 CLIVAR 1995  ACSYS CliC 2000 WGNE WGCM WGSF Coordinated Observation and Prediction of the Earth System AOPC OOPC

  4. WCRP Domains • Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment • Climate and Cryosphere • Climate Variability and Predictability • Stratospheric Processes and their Role in Climate Where does integration take place? GEWEX CliC CLIVAR SPARC • Project Contributions: • observing system components • process understanding • model components • interaction with global system (impact and response) • assimilation & reanalysis • prediction & scenarios

  5. Some Challenges for WCRP • Address seamless prediction problem - weeks, decades, centuries • Address prediction of the broader climate/Earth system • Demonstrate the use to society of WCRP-enabled predictions • Coordinate & implement activities to exploit - new & increasing data streams (environmental satellites; Argo system) - growth in capability & availability of computing - increasing complexity & breadth of models - increasing data assimilation ability • Interact with other ESSP Programmes World Climate Research Programme

  6. Extended Range Weather Forecasts Operational Observing Systems Coupled Atm.-Ocean Models WOCE 1980 2000 1990 2010 Science Seasonal to Decadal Forecasting Regional Anomaly Prediction Anthropogenic Climate Change, Detect. & Attribution Data Assimilation Techniques Atm. Ocean Coupled Tools Operational Prediction Systems Earth System Models Coupled phys.-biol.-chem. Models FGGE TOGA CLIVAR COPES GEWEX WCRP Projects ACSYS CliC SPARC

  7. WOAP: WCRP Observations and Assimilation Panel Recognizing the affiliation and role of AOPC, OOPC and GCOS as key parts of WCRP, the WOAP is established as a complementary Panel to foster and promote synthesis of observations. World Climate Research Programme

  8. The aim of COPES is to facilitate: Analysis and prediction of Earth System variability and change for use in practical applications of direct relevance, benefit and value to society. The Goals of COPES include: • Determine what aspects of the Earth system are and are not predictable, at weekly, seasonal, interannual and decadal through to century time-scales • Utilise improving observing systems, data assimilation techniques and models of the Earth system World Climate Research Programme

  9. WCRP – COPES: Status • Task Force defined and initiated a process to plan & implement COPES: final report to JSC26 in March 2005 • Some structural changes, including new Modelling Panel and Observations & Assimilation Panel • COPES discussion document distributed to WCRP stakeholders for comments, including suggestions for Specific Objectives • Task Force for Seasonal Prediction initiated JSC24 (March 2003); reports to JSC25 (2004), JSC26 (2005) • Brochure published and distributed World Climate Research Programme

  10. Climate is global. COPES will: • Provide a framework for ensuring collaboration among nations and synergy across projects and activities. • Enable new tools to describe and analyze climate variability and change, and their combined effects. • Assess why these effects are occurring. • Help build improved and more comprehensive climate system and ultimately Earth system models. • Foster climate predictions of greater utility from weeks to centuries and on global to regional scales. • Enable improved climate change assessments: • on effects of humans, • changes in extremes, • impacts on water resources, • and many other applications. World Climate Research Programme

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