New Hampshire’s Changing Wintertime Climate: Impact on Forestry Practices

1. New Hampshire’s Changing Wintertime Climate: Impact on Forestry Practices Jennifer Wurtzel (U. Michigan) Dr. Cameron Wake, Advisor (U. New Hampshire) Research & Discover 2007 Institute for the Study of Earth, Oceans, and Space University of New Hampshire

2. Global Temperature 1880-2005(meteorological stations) Hansen et al. (1988) http://www.giss.nasa.gov

3. Winter Temperature in Northeast US & Canadian Maritimes: 1900-2002 2.3 oF warming over 103 years 4.3 oF warming over 33 years Time-series represents an aerially weighted average of data from 136 stations. Data from the NOAA-NCDC and Environment Canada

4. Difference Between 5 Cold, Snowy Winters and 5 Warm, Slushy Winters (94, 96, 01, 03, 05) (95, 97, 00, 02, 06) Difference Difference Percent Winter Indicator in number in revenue Change Alpine Skier Days 309,495 $11.5 million 14% Nordic Skier Days 43,129 $0.7 million 30% Snowmobile Licenses 10,892 $1.0 million 26% Data From: Winter Recreation and Climate Variability in New Hampshire: 1984 - 2006 Report available online at: http://www.carboncoalition.org/ *Slide from Wake & Burakowski Presentation

5. Some Recent Headlines

6. Logging in New Hampshire • Where? • Why? • Mud Season • Road Postings

7. Question: How many days each year can logging trucks use the roads between Dec 1 and Mar 31?

8. Methods • Obtain Data & Guidelines Formula • Modify Formula (Freeze-Thaw Formula) • Apply Freeze-Thaw Formula to locations • Analyze Data • Sensitivity Analysis

9. Town Records Guidelines When to post roads in spring When to lift road bans in spring Modifications (Freeze-Thaw) When are roads frozen When are roads thawing Obtaining Data and Modifying Guidelines Formula

10. Freeze-Thaw Formula Some terminology • Freezing Degree Days (FDD) = 32°F – Daily Mean Temp • When temp ≤ 32°F • Melting Degree Days (MDD) = Daily Mean Temp – 29°F • When temp ≥ 29°F • Cumulative Freezing Degree Days (CFDD) = ΣFDD • Cumulative Melting Degree Days (CMDD) = ΣMDD Road considered frozen when CFDD > 10 Road considered thawed when CMDD > 10

11. 15 days lost since 1970 ~4 days per decade

12. 18 days lost since 1970 ~5 days per decade

13. Results

16. Sensitivity Analysis

17. Conclusions • Clear negative trend indicating a loss of over two days per decade • Potential need for change in forestry practices • Loss of revenue from lumber industry • Presently, $116,000 per lost day • Further evidence of changing climate in New England

18. ledaps.nascom.nasa.gov Remote Sensing • LEDAPS • Remote sensing (Landsat) can be used to analyze rates of forest-cover conversion, disturbance and recovery • Can be combined with information from logging industry and mills for more accurate view of forestry activity ledaps.nascom.nasa.gov

19. Acknowledgements Special thanks to: Dr. Cameron Wake Dr. George Hurtt EriC Kelsey Michael Routhier Deborah Smolen Research & Discover, EOS, UNH Technology Transfer Center, Public Works Departments of New Hampshire