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Web services for scientific data systems in Japan (Plan). M. Ishii Frontier Research Center for Global Change Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology. GO-ESSP Sep. 17-19, 2008, Seattle, Washington, USA. Ongoing Climate-Related Projects in Japan.
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Web services for scientific data systems in Japan (Plan) M. Ishii Frontier Research Center for Global Change Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology GO-ESSP Sep. 17-19, 2008, Seattle, Washington, USA
Ongoing Climate-Related Projects in Japan • “Kakushin” program (climate science) • S-5 (model-output intercomparison and climate change risk assessment) • IR3S (sustainability science) • DIAS (data integration and analysis) Integrated Research System for Sustainability Science establishes a transdisciplinary academic structure that facilitates the fusion of the natural sciences with the humanities and social sciences. This project is related to “mitigation of climate change” (IPCC WG3).
The 2nd phase of Japanese global warming project on the Earth Simulator: Kakushin Program, 2007-2011 Funded by Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (MEXT) • Team 1: Carbon cycle w/ ESM (FRCGC/NIES/CCSR) • Team 2: Near-term decadal prediction w/ hi-res AOGCM (CCSR/NIES/FRCGC) • Team 3: Time-slice exp w/ 20km AGCM (MRI/JMA) # Teams 1-3 all consist ofModelling / Uncertainty / Impact sub-teams # Model outputs exceeding 300TB are expected. • Others • CSRM, global as well as regional • Hi-res OGCM # ES will be upgraded in March 2009
Extension to the Stratosphere Team 1: Carbon cycle w/ ESM
Team 2: Japanese CLIMATE 2030 Project 110km mesh model • A near-term prediction up to 2030 with a high-resolution coupled AOGCM • 60km Atmos + 20x30km Ocean • w/ updated cloud PDF scheme, PBL, etc • advanced aerosol/chemistry • Estimate of uncertainty due to initial conditions • 10(?)-member ensemble • For impact applications • water risk assessment system • impacts on marine ecosystems • etc. • Test run w/ 20km AOGCM (in 2011) 60km mesh model 5-min topography Ensemble hindcast/forecast Assimilation/Initialization
Extreme event projection with very-high resolution atmospheric models Team 3: MRI / JMA / AESTO High-resolution global atmospheric model Regional cloud resolving model by nesting Atmosphere-Ocean model 180km mesh 5km & 1km mesh 20kmmesh Predicted SST Atmosphere Atmosphere Boundary condition SST SST Ocean Boundary condition Future 100-50km mesh Near Future Present SST 6 SST=Sea Surface Temperature Year 1979-2003 2015-2039 2075-2099
Jan.,Feb., Mar. Apr., May, Jun. Jul., Aug., Sep. Oct., Nov., Dec. Max surface wind speed (m/s) (Oouchi et al., 2005)
S-5 Integrated Research on Climate Change Scenarios to Increase Public Awareness and Contribute to the Policy Process funded by Ministry of Environment (MoE), 2007-2011. Climate Change Predictions Socio-Economic Scenarios Theme 1(HQ) Theme 2 Uncertainty Assessment Theme 4 Evaluation of model performance for individual phenomena for interacting multiple phenomena Model Evaluation Metrics Downscale Socio-Economic Scenarios Emission & Land-use Scenarios Probabilistic Climate Scenarios Impact Assessment Theme 3 Downscale Climate Scenarios “Future Climate Images” Downscaled Scenarios Spatially Explicit Socio-Economic, Emission & Land-use Scenarios Communication Intuitive Communication “User Needs” Collaboration MoE GERF S-3 (Mitigation) S-4 (Impact) MEXT KakushinProgramme(Prediction) Decision Makers/General Public • Provide the best science to stakeholders as a basis for decision making. • Motivate public to act based on accurate science. • Contribute to international scientific community through IPCC, etc.
CMIP5 IPCC WG1 IPCC WG3 IPCC WG2 Kakushin IR3S S-5 Synthesis Physical Science Basis of Climate Change Climate Change Impact, Adaptation and Vulnerability Mitigation of Climate Change • Better association among natural scientists, social scientists and possibly policy makers • Consistency with IPCC context -> contribution to international community
1 peta byte hard disk array 3 peta byte tape library
Concluding Messages • A CMIP5 distributed sever will be prepared by somebody somewhere in Japan someday within the next FY (2009-10), as the collective will of the Japanese science community and government agencies. • The data service will be realized by importing expert data management and web service systems discussed during this conference as well as the ones originally developed by several domestic projects in Japan.