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Analysis of potential and actual supporters of “green” issues - Poland

Analysis of potential and actual supporters of “green” issues - Poland. October 14. Design of the survey.

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Analysis of potential and actual supporters of “green” issues - Poland

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  1. Analysis of potential and actual supporters of “green” issues - Poland October 14

  2. Design of the survey Significant differences (at a level of 95%) are marked. “Significant at a level of 95%” means that differences do not occur by chance (with a probability of 95%), but that they also exist in the real population.

  3. Agenda • Part I – Electoral behaviour • Electoral behaviour at National / European elections • Comparison between National and European electoral behaviour • Reasons for electoral behaviour • Green Potential • Part II – Attitude towards EU • Part III – Topics • Important topics for the future • Actual mood in Poland • Competences of the parties • Part IV – Positioning • Image of the parties • Image of the Green party (by different voting groups) • Importance – Performance: attributes and competences • What should a Green party stand for?

  4. Part IElectoral behaviour

  5. Election results (official and sample) - Poland Last National and European Elections • Non- or Invalid-voters: • National Election: 6,7% (official: 47,2%) • European Election: 24,0% (official: 79,7%) …over-represented … under-represented

  6. Electoral behaviour at European ElectionsPlease note that shares can differ from the official results and because of this the shares of future elections should not be interpreted , but the relative changes are relevant 44% say that they will definitely vote at the next European Election – 8% will definitely not vote. (+/- … %): margin of error; e.g. 1,4% (+/-1,1%) means that the result lies with a probability of 95% within the interval between (1,4%-1,1%=) 0,3% and (1,4%+1,1%=) 2,5% Not sure yet Quite sure Very sure

  7. High percentage of constant voters PO, PiS and SLDhave the highest percentage of constant voters. Only 51% of the non-voters will not vote at the national elections, either! n = 1.042

  8. A party’s manifesto and voter’s values are the main reasons for voting a party 58% totally agree / tend to agree that voting for a small party is a wasted vote. 62% totally agree that parties should make clear before elections with whom they will form coalition. The category “Certain topics” contains mostly security and social issues. “Other reasons” are e.g. personal reasons or that the respondent knows more about this party than about the others etc. n = 315 (only asked within Green Potential) There are no differences in the voting decisions of certain voting groups, except a significant but small difference concerning the category „certain topics“.

  9. Definition Green Potential Could you imagine voting for a party which has environment as one of its main focuses? Part of Green Potential n = 1.553 Definitely Rather Rather not Definitely not

  10. ~ Every fourth person within the Green Potential Green Potential (27% of total sample) • People in the Green Potential do not differ from other Polish people regarding region, gender, education and living space • More > 59 years old people, less 30-39 years old people • More retirees, less students or doing community/military service Weak Green Potential Strong Green Potential Green voters Have not already voted Green, but consider Zieloni 2004 for the next European Election or could definitely imagine voting for a party with environment focus Will presumably vote for Zieloni 2004 at the next European Election. Have already voted for Zieloni 2004 or will presumably vote for Zieloni 2004 at the next National Election, but will not vote for Zieloni 2004 at the next European Election. 98,7% (26,9% of total sample) 0,6% (0,2% of total sample) 0,7% (0,2% of total sample)

  11. Part IIAttitude towards EU

  12. The majority is not totally convinced that things are going into the right direction in Europe Only 8% of the population is convinced that things are going into the right direction in Europe. At least 49% tend to agree on this statement. n = 1.642 Totally agree Tend to agree Tend to disagree Totally disagree

  13. Positive mood towards the EU: Poland has benefited, but should protect its interests The performance of the EU is evaluated on average with 2,4*. (1: very good - 4: insufficient) Only 9%* of the Green Potential evaluate the performance with “very good”. n = ~ 1.580 * n = 435 (only asked within Green Potential) Totally agree Tend to agree Tend to disagree Totally disagree

  14. It makes no odds whether the general EU-mood is positive or critical, the agreement to protecting national interests is always very high. High agreement on protecting national interests • Protecting national interests is always more important than EU-aspects. • Enlargement-opponents have a rather positive opinion towards the EU. • Of those who absolutely think that the EU should stop enlargement, most think that … • protecting Poland’s interests are more important than good relations with the EU, but also that • Poland has benefited from being a member of the EU • Poland should not leave the EU • European Elections are important (but not a good opportunity to protest against the national government) • Decliners of European Elections have a rather positive opinion towards EU. • Of those who totally agree that the European Elections are not important, most think that … • protecting Poland‘s interests is more important than good relations with the EU, but also that • Poland has benefited from being a member of the EU • Poland should not leave the EU • EU should not stop enlargement detailed

  15. Differences in the EU-related mood between specific groups of people The Green potential is undecided concerning its EU-related mood. Higher educated people are have a more positive mood towards the EU than the other education groups. Women are more critical towards the EU than men.

  16. Differences in the EU-related mood between specific groups of people Young people have more positive mood towards the EU than the other age groups. People living in not urban areas are more critical towards the EU than the other living space groups. Students have a more positive opinion towards the EU than the other occupation groups. Significant correlation between age and occupation.

  17. Differences in the EU-related mood between specific groups of people PO-Voters are more positive, SLD-Voters tend to be more positive towards the EU than the voters of the other parties. Voters of other parties are more critical, PiS-Voters tend to be more critical towards the EU than the voters of the other parties. People who think that additional needs are important have a more positive moodtowards the EU than people with basic needs. People who think that basic needs are important are more critical towards the EU than people with additional needs.

  18. Part IIITopics

  19. Green Potential Non-Green Potential Economy, International affairs and Social issues are the most important topics for the future • Significantly more important for the Green Potential: • International Affairs • Environment • Significantly less often mentioned of the Green Potential: • Nothing comes to my mind detailed categories for Other n (Non-Green Potential) = 1.194 n (Green Potential) = 448 * Significantly different

  20. Issues regarding Environment, Traffic and International affairs are more important for the Green Potential Significant differences between Green Potential and Non-Green Potential More important within green potential: Air pollution, nature conservation, expansion of public transport, traffic – general, more/ free childcare organisations, fight crime, globalisation, international affairs – general Less important within green potential: Health system n (general) = 1.642 n (Green Potential) = 448

  21. Largest dissatisfaction concerning Social issues and Environment protection Wrong things Too little Too much n = 448 (only Green Potential) Generally satisfied

  22. Highest Dissatisfaction: Social issues and Environment protection Economy, International affairs and Social issues are three of the most important topics for Polish people. There is a very high dissatisfaction with the actual situation concerning Social issues and Economy, but a quite high satisfaction with the measures taken regarding International affairs. n = 448 (only Green Potential)

  23. Economy is more important for men; women are generally less satisfied than men n = 448 (only Green Potential)

  24. Some differences in important topics between age groups; younger people are less satisfied n = 447 (only Green Potential)

  25. Lower educated people are less satisfied, economic topics affecting their daily lives are more important n = 448 (only Green Potential)

  26. Lack of competences of Zieloni regarding all areas Positive effects Negative effects Zieloni PiS (n ~ 130) (n ~ 106) PO (n ~ 215) SLD (n ~ 58) PSL (n ~ 60) • PiS and PO: highest competence regarding most topics • PSL: highest competence regarding environment protection! • No competences are related to Zieloni, not even environment protection (only asked within Green Potential) Zieloni is evaluated by the whole Green Potential, other parties only by their voters or probable voters!

  27. Economy, Social Issues: quite high importance & dissatisfaction, but very low competence L: PO L: PiS L: PiS L: PSL L: PiS L: PiS L: PiS L: PO The larger the ball, the larger the competence of Zieloni 2004 in this area. The leader regarding the competence is also mentioned. L: PO L: PO L: PiS L: PO L: PO F: Follower L: Leader

  28. Environment is a quite important topic, but not decisive to vote for a party Mobility L: PiS Security L: PiS Education L: PiS Economy L: PiS Not Immigration L: PO Not Environment L: PSL Science & Research L: PO The larger the ball, the larger the competence of Zieloni 2004 in this area. The leader regarding the competence is also mentioned. F: Follower L: Leader

  29. Part IVPositioning

  30. Very low (aided) awareness of the Zieloni 2004 members within the Green Potential n = 448 (only asked within Green Potential)

  31. Performance of PO is evaluated best by the Green Potential – moderate evaluation of Zieloni 2004 • 45 - 59 years old people evaluate Zieloni 2004 best (22% „very good“) • Over half of the people who are older than 59 evaluate Zieloni 2004 as “good” (57%) and nobody of this age class evaluate it as “insufficient” BUT PLEASE NOTE: Zieloni 2004 is evaluated by people who would (perhaps) vote it for the European Elections next Sunday or just know Zieloni 2004, other parties only by their voters or probable voters! Different voter groups do not evaluate Zieloni 2004 significant differently. (only asked within Green Potential)

  32. PO n = 215 PiS n = 106 SLD n = 58 PSL n = 60 Zieloni 2004 n = 160 Zieloni 2004 is not perceived as boring, aloof or unpredictable but less competent and future oriented • PO: most likeable • PiS: most committed and trustworthy • Zieloni 2004:less distinctive image than the other parties BUT PLEASE NOTE: Zieloni 2004 is evaluated by people who would (perhaps) vote it for the European Elections next Sunday or just know Zieloni 2004, other parties only by their voters or probable voters! People living in the South-West perceive Zieloni 2004 rather as authentic, likeable, competent and future oriented. People from the North-East have a rather critical attitude towards Zieloni 2004. (only asked within Green Potential)

  33. Competent Authentic Trustworthy Close to people Dimension reduction of image-attributes to factors • Factor “competent & reliable” • Likeable • Close to people • committed • Factor “committed & likeable” • Factor analysis • Future-oriented • committed • Factor “future-oriented” • Factor “boring” • Boring • Unpredictable • Factor “unpredictable” • Aloof • Factor “aloof”

  34. Zieloni is perceived as less competent & reliable than other parties PO PiS SLD Zieloni PSL

  35. Zieloni is not perceived differently by different voter-groups Don‘t know PO-Voter PiS-Voter

  36. Competence & reliability are decisive to vote for a party To be voted it is important to be seen as competent & reliable bad starting position for Zieloni 2004 competent & reliable committed & likeable 2 1 1 2 2 ¹ not unpredictable  future-oriented aloof Zieloni Leader (Top-performer) Worst performer

  37. A Green party should necessarily stand for environment – just for 5% also for other topics 81% mentioned only environmental topics 5% environmental and other topics 3% only other topics n = 448 (only Green Potential)

  38. Only 0,3% perceive Zieloni 2004 as „Green“ • Green parties should necessarily stand for environment • But: • Low awareness of the Zieloni 2004 within Green Potential (34%) • Zieloni 2004 isnot perceived as a “Green” party • Low competence regarding environmental issues is attributed to the Zieloni • Discrepancy between Zieloni 2004 and a “Green” party n = 1.642

  39. Conclusion/possible approaches Create awareness and a “green” perception within the population Image: Content has to be communicated in a competent & reliable manner Competences: Build up “green” core competences Aim: create awareness, build up competences & exploit Green potential Principles: Environment has to become decisive for the voting decision Communication: Environmental matters and economic goals need not to be a contrast

  40. www.manova.at

  41. Detailed EU-mood • Of those who completely agree that Poland has benefited from being a member of the EU, most think that … • Poland should not leave the EU (95%) • the European Elections are important (82%) • the EU should not stop enlargement (66%), but also that • protecting Poland’s interests are more important than good relationships with the EU (71%) • there should not be made more decisions on EU level than on national level (57%) • Of those who are completely of the opinion that protecting Poland’s own interests at the international level is more important than good relations with the EU, most think that … • there should not be made more decisions on EU level than on national level (67%), but also that • Poland should not leave the EU (84%) • Poland has benefited from being member of the EU (81%) • European Elections are important (74%) - but not a good opportunity to protest against the national government (52%) • EU should not stop enlargement (58%) • Of those who absolutely think that the EU should stop enlargement, most think that … • protecting Poland’s interests are more important than good relationships with the EU (87%), but also that • Poland has benefited from being a member of the EU (78%) • Poland should not leave the EU (77%) • European Elections are important (73%) - but not a good opportunity to protest against the national government (52%) • Of those who totally see the European Elections as a good opportunity to protest against the national government, most think that … • EU should not stop enlargement (56%), but also that • protecting Poland’s interests are more important than good relationships with the EU (81%)

  42. Detailed EU-mood • Of those who totally believe, that more decisions should be made on EU level than on a national level, most think that … • Poland should not leave the EU (87%) • Poland has benefited from being a member of the EU (86%) • European Elections are a good opportunity to protest against the national government (57%), but also that • protecting Poland’s interests is more important than good relations with the EU (79%) • Of those who totally agree that the European Elections are not important, most think that … • Poland has benefited from being a member of the EU (77%) • Poland should not leave the EU (75%) • EU should not stop enlargement (55%), but also that • protecting Poland‘s interests is more important than good relations with the EU (87%) • Of those who totally agree that Poland should leave the EU, most think that … • protecting Poland‘s own interests is more important than good relations with the EU (88%) • there should not be made more decisions on EU level than on national level (73%) • EU should stop enlargement (63%) • Poland has not benefited from being a member of the EU (54%), but also that • European Elections are important (56%)

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