Local Elections, Long Term Effects? The Hong Kong District Council Elections of 2011

1. Local Elections, Long Term Effects?The Hong Kong District Council Elections of 2011

2. Research commissioned by: National Democratic Institute for International Affairs Research conducted by: The Hong Kong Transition Project

3. The Context of the DC Elections Chart of Table 1: Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with your current life in Hong Kong?

4. Chart/Table 2 Are you currently satisfied with the general performance of Hong Kong Government?

5. Comparison of DAB/DP/CP/No Party on Satisfaction with performance of the Hong Kong Government* *Samples too small for others to compare

6. Chart/Table 3 Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with performance of C. E. Donald Tsang?

7. Comparison of DAB/DP/CP/No Party on Satisfaction with performance of Donald Tsang* *Samples too small for other parties for analysis. No significant difference from average for all with those saying no party represents them best

8. 2007 DC campaign materials

9. Chart/Table 4 Satisfaction with performance of the SAR government in dealing with the PRC government First time dissatisfaction exceeds satisfaction under Tsang

10. Comparison of DAB/DP/CP/No Party on Satisfaction with performance of SAR Government dealing with PRC Government*

11. Chart/Table 4 Are you currently satisfied or dissatisfied with the performance of the PRC Government dealing with HKSAR affairs?

12. Comparison of DAB/DP/CP/No Party on Satisfaction with performance of PRC Government dealing with SAR Government

13. Chart/Table 5 Are you currently satisfied or dissatisfied with the performance of the Chinese (PRC) Government in ruling China?

14. Comparison of DAB/DP/CP/No Party on Satisfaction with performance of PRC Government in ruling China*

15. Do you support or oppose the schools teaching the political history of China and Hong Kong?

16. Do you support or oppose the schools to have patriotic school plays or lessons?

17. Do you support or oppose the school children to sing National Anthem and have flag raising every day?

18. How does the celebration of China’s National day on 1 October make you feel?

19. Feelings on National Day, by Which party represents you best Only 1 in 5 of patriotic cite DAB

20. Feelings on National Day by Satisfaction with PRC Government rule of China Over a third of patriotic dissatisfied with PRC Government rule

21. Chart/Table 6 Which problem of Hong Kong are you most concerned about now personally? Steep rise in political issues from 2010 & April 2011

22. Chart/Table 8 Are you satisfied/dissatisfied with Government’s performance on this problem?

23. Voters

24. Table 9 Do you believe making the Chief Executive and Legco members more accountable to voters with direct elections would improve performance on solving your problems?

25. Do you plan to vote for your current DC representative or for someone else?

26. In principle, do you support or oppose direct election of: All Legco seats? The Chief Executive?

29. How important is it for your District Councilor to support direct elections for the DCs, the Chief Executive and all members of Legco? If voters so strongly support in principle, & if DC gets more votes to block this or make it happen, shouldn’t this issue matter when you vote for your DC member?

30. +4 -8 Pan-Democrats -19 Pro-government +8 -2 Pan-Democrats -22 Pro-government

31. Among registered voters indicating an intent to vote

33. Public Opinion • Dissatisfaction with Hong Kong Government High, & Much Higher than 2007 • Dissatisfaction with PRC Government High, Higher than any time since 1997 • Patriots more dissatisfied than ever • Support for direct elections higher • Democrats should be overwhelming favorites to win many seats, but . . .

34. Chart/Table 10 In general, do you think political parties in Hong Kong are having a good effect or bad effect on this problem (of greatest personal concern)?

35. Chart/Table 11 Of the political parties in Legco, which party, if any, do you feel represents or protects your interests best?

36. Which party best represents, by Registered voter with intentions to vote or not

37. Would you like or not like to see your current District Councilor on the Chief Executive Election Committee or on Legco as one of the super Legco representatives?

38. The Parties

39. Satisfaction with party performance Oct 2011 (among registered voters indicating intention to vote)

40. Trend Analysis: Difference between satisfaction and dissatisfaction with performance of the political parties

41. Worries & Issues

42. Following the by-elections in May 2010, the government has proposed changes. Do you support or oppose the following:

43. Are you currently worried or not about these specific aspects affecting you, your family or Hong Kong?

44. Of the worries mentioned, which worries you the most?

45. Fundamental Changes?

46. 117 DC Members on Chief Executive Election Committee • Only 30 directly elected Legco members, 60 Legco all up—DC will have nearly TWICE the influence on who is the next Chief Executive • DC will nominate and nearly all voters vote on 5 “super” representatives—first chance for a REFERENDUM on issues, candidates & parties • What happens when 5 reps, elected by millions, are vetoed by 15 reps, elected by a few thousand?

47. In light of direct elections for Chief Executive in 2017, who would you like to vote for if they agree to run for Chief Executive in 2012?

48. The following is a list of how you might describe yourself. Which is the most appropriate description of you? (Read list)

49. Proportion within Age Groups of Identity Categories

50. Proportions of Birthplace by Identity Categories