1 / 14

Climate Information and Agricultural Risk Management

Climate Information and Agricultural Risk Management. T. A. Crane *, C. Roncoli*, N. E. Breuer+, J. O. Paz*, K. T. Ingram#, K. Broad+, G. Hoogenboom* * University of Georgia, + University of Miami, # University of Florida . A Systemic Approach to Understanding Farmers’ Decision-Making.

giselle
Download Presentation

Climate Information and Agricultural Risk Management

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Climate Information and Agricultural Risk Management T. A. Crane*, C. Roncoli*, N. E. Breuer+, J. O. Paz*, K. T. Ingram#, K. Broad+, G. Hoogenboom* * University of Georgia, + University of Miami, # University of Florida A Systemic Approach to Understanding Farmers’ Decision-Making

  2. Outline • Research methods and setting • Interactions with weather and climate information systems • Potential adaptive strategies • Challenges to forecast use • Farmers’ suggestions for usability

  3. Methods and Research Setting • Sample: 38 farmers • Sites: 21 counties in South Georgia • Methods: Semi-structured interviews • Weather and climate information systems • Climate variability and risk mgmt. strategies • Potential adaptations

  4. Methods and Research Setting • Sample: 38 farmers • Sites: 21 counties in South Georgia • Methods: Semi-structured interviews • Mixed production systems • Avg. 2 per operation

  5. Weather & Climate Info Sources • Daily use, often accessed multiple times • Spraying • Planting • Irrigation • Confidence low beyond 3-5 days • Wives & children are often internet users; information gateways

  6. Weather & Climate Info Sources • Passive exposure to climate forecasts • 90-day forecasts not used in agric. decisions • “Conversation piece” • “Peace of mind” • Collective credibility

  7. Adaptive Management Options • Cropping strategy • Corn or cotton ? • Dry land corn ? • Soil : crop : forecast ? • Forward contracts ? • Planting schedule • Dry year pine planting ? • Late frost risk ?

  8. Adaptive Management Options Forecast Use: Irwin County Spring 2006 forecast for summer drought  widespread shift from long- to short-cycle peanut variety

  9. Non-Climate Variables as Management Drivers • Agronomic requirements • Commodity prices • Insurance constraints • Input prices • Credit options • Policy environment • Price supports • Trade policies • Immigration laws Relative uncertainty of forecasts compared to non-climate variables = competition as mgmt. driver

  10. Challenges to Farmers’ Use of Forecasts • Discrepancy in scales of forecasts & decisions • Temporal • Spatial • Inexperience with climate forecasts • Unawareness of potential • Skepticism of accuracy • Discrepancy in understandings of key concepts • Probability • Accuracy

  11. Challenges to Farmers’ Use of Forecasts • Difficulty in processing additional information • Time • Mental energy • Inflexibility of highly-capitalized operations • Indebtedness • Infrastructural investments • Large acreage • Potential for actors to leverage info over farmers • Lenders • Insurers • Brokers

  12. Facilitating Appropriate Use of Climate-Based DSS • Create recognizable identity for DSS • “Show the people behind it” • Association with land-grant university • Communication • Use lay-users’ language • “Show you understand what it means to be a farmer” • Layer information for different users • Cultivate habitual reference to site • Regular outreach • Keep information updated

  13. Facilitating Appropriate Use of Climate-Based DSS • Enable users to evaluate forecasts • Publish forecast history • Publish forecast performance records • Explain probability upfront • Integrate users’ feedback into product development and assessment

  14. Questions? www.agclimate.org http://secc.coaps.fsu.edu/ This research was supported by funding from NOAA USDA-RMA USDA-CSREES

More Related