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Decadal Scale Climate Information, Climate Risk Management & Adaptation

Decadal Scale Climate Information, Climate Risk Management & Adaptation. Why?. Climate risk management is currently focused on timescales of < 1 year and > 20 years Many policy, planning and investment decisions occur on timescales of 1-20 years

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Decadal Scale Climate Information, Climate Risk Management & Adaptation

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  1. Decadal Scale Climate Information, Climate Risk Management & Adaptation

  2. Why? • Climate risk management is currently focused on timescales of < 1 year and > 20 years • Many policy, planning and investment decisions occur on timescales of 1-20 years • Climate change is accelerating – emerging risks and variability • Need to merge adaptation and risk reduction on these “real world” time scales

  3. What? • Development of “seamless” climate forecasts and scenarios for 1 -> 10 -> 20 year timescales • Marrying of seasonal and climate change methods, tools and communities • Merging of data sources – observational, decadal predictions, centennial projections, downscaling • A focus of extreme events • Close integration with users in agriculture, water, food security, at multiple levels

  4. Example Research Questions • Where, if anywhere, are decadal predictions useful – in which regions, at what time scales, and for which agricultural drivers and communities? • At what time horizon does a shift occur from forecasts to scenarios? • What are the most appropriate analysis and communication methods, and what can we adopt from the seasonal and climate change scenarios communities? • What kinds of adaptation and risk reduction methods in the agriculture and food sector would be appropriate on these timescales? • Who are the beneficiaries of multi-year climate data, what are their information needs and to what extent can these needs be met?

  5. Fit to CCAFS Agenda • Science integration – climate and climate applications, hydrology, agriculture, policy and planning… • Development – climate compatible development, disaster risk reduction • Climate change agenda – critical timescale gap • Agriculture and food – addresses climate as a driver of production, GDP, livelihoods, and planning agricultural adaptation • Provide critical information for CG researchers • Will link to multiple stakeholders – applied research, policy and planning, industry and farmers • Deliver data - using state-of-art methods – on CG-relevant climate change and variability on timescales of 1-20 (30) years

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