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Emerging Markets to Frontier Markets

Emerging Markets to Frontier Markets. Paul Goodwin Analyst, Cabot China & Emerging Markets Report paul@cabot.net. Danger Everywhere You Look. What Are the Dangers? . Examples: Greek liquidity crisis Egyptian revolution China’s investor controls Inflation in Brazil Bureaucracy in India.

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Emerging Markets to Frontier Markets

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  1. Emerging Markets toFrontier Markets Paul Goodwin Analyst, Cabot China & Emerging Markets Report paul@cabot.net

  2. Danger Everywhere You Look

  3. What Are the Dangers? • Examples: • Greek liquidity crisis • Egyptian revolution • China’s investor controls • Inflation in Brazil • Bureaucracy in India

  4. The Risks: China Mobile (CHL) 2004-2007

  5. The Risks: China Mobile (CHL) 2007-Present

  6. Emerging Markets Leave China in the Dust: Jan. 2011–Apr. 2013

  7. Then It All Changes in May • PGJ = China • EEM = Emerging Markets

  8. EM Investing Is a Stock-Picker’s Game • Phoenix New Media (FENG) • Inc. 2007 in Beijing • Internet, mobile and TV • Market cap: $625 million • Revenue: $184 million • Announced Q2 results Monday: stock up 12%

  9. Revenue sources (Q1 2013) • Value added services = 79% of revenue • Social Networks—24% • Online Games—55% • Advertising = 6% • eCommerce = 14%

  10. Q1 Earnings Report: May 15 • Total revenue up 40.4% y.o.y. • Operating profit up 37.1% • Q2 Earnings Report: August 14 • ???

  11. Established 1999 • Largest eCommerce player in China • Market cap HKD67 billion ($8.7 billion) • 17% owned by Yahoo! • IPO talked about end of 2013

  12. Alibaba.com—Global e-commerce • 1688.com—E-commerce for small Chinese biz • AliExpress—Global consumer marketplace • Taobao.com—C2C shopping destination • Tmall.com—Online brand-name shopping • eTao—Comprehensive shopping search engine • Alibaba Cloud Computing—Just like Amazon • Alipay—Just like Paypal

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