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Asia Pacific Opportunities Investing to Avert an Crisis

Socio-Economic Impact. ICAAP, Kobe, July 2005. Asia Pacific Opportunities Investing to Avert an Crisis. John Stover, Gayle Martin, Orrattai R, Ross Mcleod , Swarup Sarkar. Jacques Jeugmans. Joint ADB/UNAIDS Background Studies. Progressive Epidemic. 8.2 M PLWA (2.3 women)

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Asia Pacific Opportunities Investing to Avert an Crisis

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  1. Socio-Economic Impact ICAAP, Kobe, July 2005 Asia Pacific Opportunities Investing to Avert an Crisis John Stover, Gayle Martin, Orrattai R, Ross Mcleod , Swarup Sarkar Jacques Jeugmans Joint ADB/UNAIDS Background Studies

  2. Progressive Epidemic 8.2 M PLWA (2.3 women) 1.2 M New Infections 0.54 M Death

  3. Bangladesh Prevention Works HIV prevalence among sex workers and male clientswith and without current programs Source: Guinness L et al. (2002). Modeling the Impact and Cost-Effectiveness of CARE-SHAKTI.

  4. Response: Leadership commitment and Multi-sectoral program Countries in Asia and Pacific 2004 Source: UNAIDS-ADB. 2004. Act Now or Pay Later: Institutional Gaps in the Asia-Pacific HIV/AIDS Response. Bangkok-Manila: Background paper, UNAIDS-ADB study series.

  5. 16 Asia-Pacific countries 2004 Most-at-risk populations reached by targeted prevention programs

  6. People with advanced HIV infection receiving ART (2004) Source: WHO (2004).

  7. Study Phase I: Review of the SE Impact • GDP/GNI may not fall • LE: minimal change at national level • Work force depletion may not be critical • Very high disease burden • High(est) cause of mortality • Impact on the household and family And • Low prevalence still means large numbers • Sub-national impacts vary significantly

  8. Low levels of prevalence in Asia still mean large numbersof people living with HIV Source: UNAIDS (2004). AIDS Epidemic Update 2004.

  9. HIV prevalence: Sub-national variations Cambodia India Myanmar Thailand Source: National HIV sero-surveillance data for Cambodia (2002), India and Myanmar (2003), and Thailand (2004).

  10. Adult (15-49) deaths (/1000 pop) in Thailand ----- and Chiang Mai -----

  11. Year of Life Expectancy in Cambodia ------ and Siem Reap -------

  12. PovertyMDGs 1 and 6delayedDetails in Gayle Martin’s Presentation

  13. IMPACT on POVERTY-MDG Goal Erosion Projected Poverty Reduction Achievements 32.0% 32.0% 30.0% 30.0% 28.0% 28.0% 26.0% 26.0% 24.0% 24.0% 22.0% 22.0% 20.0% 20.0% 18.0% 18.0% 16.0% 16.0% 14.0% 14.0% 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 without AIDS with AIDS without AIDS with AIDS Cambodia India MDG GOAL: Halve Poverty by 2015 Source: ADB and UNAIDS (2004). Asia Pacific’s Opportunity: Investing to Avert an HIV/AIDS Crisis. Manila and Bangkok

  14. Household consumption expenditure Poverty line Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 Impact on Expenditure and Income Households divided into 5 income quintiles

  15. Source of Funds

  16. Estimated Resource Need for HIV: Asia-Pacific Countries

  17. Availability of resources in Asia and the Pacific2003–2007 Source: UNAIDS (2004). Financing the Expanded Response to AIDS.

  18. Effect of increased response Baseline: current (2004) levels of prevention and care continued. Comprehensive response: Expanded antiretroviral therapy and scaled-up prevention. Source: Adapted from Stover J. et al. (2002). Updated through 2005.

  19. 10m 4m The cost of Inaction(by 2010) No intervention With prevention and care Newly infected Between 2004 and 2010 660,000 (100,000 lives saved each year) Yearly death toll By 2010 750,000 Annual financial losses By 2010 $15.5 billion ($2b saved each year) $17.5 billion

  20. In one study in India, more than 90% of the HIV positive women were married, monogamous and had only one sex partner in their life time Other Issues • Issues on Adsorptive Capacity • Human Resources for programming and management • Fund Flow • Multi-Ministerial Program • Impact of livelihood on PWA, Women and Children

  21. Leadership is the key… • Significant measurable impacteven in low prevalence areas • Need for resources • Support critical programs • Pro-poor ART Programs • National support for local response Thank you

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