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ESP 165: Climate Policy

ESP 165: Climate Policy. Mike Springborn Department of Environmental Science & Policy. Climate policy questions and lenses. How aggressively and in what way should society take action to reduce damages from climate change? Mitigation versus adaptation Disciplinary lenses:

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ESP 165: Climate Policy

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  1. ESP 165: Climate Policy Mike Springborn Department of Environmental Science & Policy

  2. Climate policy questions and lenses • How aggressively and in what way should society take action to reduce damages from climate change? • Mitigation versus adaptation • Disciplinary lenses: • Economics, policy science, ethics, climate science • Scales • International/national/state

  3. Problem in a nutshell: Growing GHG concentrations are correlated (& causally linked) with an increase in average global temperature [Trenberth 2009]

  4. Higher GHG concentrations map to uncertain but substantial expected changes in temperature [Pizer 2007]

  5. The paleoclimatic record shows a clear relationship between temperature and CO2 concentration [Dieter et al. 2008]

  6. The paleoclimatic record suggests anticipated GHG concentrations are quite unusual [NAS, 2014]

  7. Top contributors to GHGs: 1-energy, 2-ag, 3-industrial (EPA, 2016)

  8. Some of the additional energy is heating up oceans (EPA, 2016)

  9. Projected US temperature changes are substantial even for optimistic emissions scenarios From… U.S. Global Change Research Program: National Climate Assessment and Development Advisory Committee Draft Climate Assessment Report (2013). Temperature is relative to the 1901-1960 average. (USGCRP 2013, p. 20) • A2 scenario: high population growth, low economic growth, slower technology improvements and diffusion, and other factors that contribute to high emissions and lower adaptive capacity • B1 scenario: lower population growth, higher economic development, a shift to low-emitting efficient energy technologies that are diffused rapidly around the world through free trade, and other conditions that reduce the rate and magnitude of changes in climate averages and extremes as well as increased capacity for adaptation.

  10. Undesirable impacts are expected as temperature increases across a range of settings [IPPC 2007]

  11. There will be some areas of benefit under climate change, e.g. increased growing season (EPA, 2016)

  12. Substantial GHG reduction policies were being developed at the U.S. national level (Clean Power Plan) to tie into international agreements (i.e. Paris Agreement, 2016).

  13. ESP 165: style and expectations • Assessment: • Grade entirely based on • written work (essay-style) • discussion (in-class) • Meetings • Minimal lecture • Emphasis on discussion • You prepare before class • No memorization and testing of facts.

  14. Class Website • URL: just search for “esp165” (or link on Smartsite, or my website) • Schedule • Syllabus details • Grading

  15. Reading and discussion for ESP 165 • Questions are posted below each reading to highlight most important issues. You should work to develop your own responses to these questions. • Before class: ~60%; • After class: ~90% • In papers and exams: 100%

  16. Reading & discussion for ESP 165 Be prepared to discuss the XX article above.  You will discuss the article in small groups of 3 people.  At the end of discussion, on a group sheet of paper, each member will be asked to self-assess how prepared they were to discuss the ideas of the paper.  Group members should hold others accountable for their self-assessment.Self-assessment ranking (1-5):  5: I read the whole paper carefully, I have a copy with me that I marked up with my notes, I have an initial idea of how to respond to the two questions posed under the reading when assigned, and I contributed actively and informatively to my group's discussion.  (This might have included asking specific, informed questions about things I don't fully understand in the paper.)4: I read the paper and have a copy with me, I contributed actively to my group's discussion3: I scanned the paper and have the basic idea, I contributed a modest amount to my group's discussion.2: I have the paper but haven't read it deeply.  I contributed a small amount to my group's discussion.  [**Or: I wasn't prepared at all but picked it up quickly and discussed critically once in discussion.]  1: I'm here, aren't I?  What more do you want from me?      

  17. Because climate policy is a quickly evolving topic we will not use a textbook. • Rather, we will use a collection of reports and journal articles. • If you can’t access a particular article via the provided link, before you email make sure • you are operating in a way that recognizes you are affiliated with UCD (on campus or using VPM), and • you’ve tried to search for it. E.g.: Stott, P. (2016). How climate change affects extreme weather events. Science, 352(6293), 1517-1518. On campus or via VPN: Off campus:

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