Fire research is about people ... and so is economics

1. Fire research is about people ... and so is economics inFIRE Conference Presentation Dr Ganesh Nana Chief Economist BERL 01 March 2012

2. Agenda • introduction • question • overview of some research examples • review

3. NZFS Commission • statutory duty • promote fire safety • better work practices • effective rural fire management • Contestable Research Fund (CRF) • supports research into better methods and practices of fire safety

4. BERL • independent private business and economic consultancy • have undertaken CRF research related to • promoting fire safety • improving NZFS operations • establishing costs of fires

5. Research Methods • quantitative • statistics, regressions, modelling • practical • interviews, case studies, recommendations • strategic • review and analysis of public policy, strategies, regulations and legislation • theoretical • literature reviews, metadata analysis Is this a useful division for fire research?

6. To promote fire safetye.g. alcohol and fire research Approach • literature scan – what is happening elsewhere? • consult – what are others doing? • assess • recommend

7. Living research e.g. alcohol and fire • US – alcohol impairment contributing factor in home fire deaths • UK – unintentional dwelling fires identified alcohol and intoxication as a risk factor • Scotland – the Fire and Rescue Service recognised alcohol as a major social problem • NZ – drinking patterns a major problem AND many agencies sending messages aimed at reducing alcohol harm don't drink and fry video

8. Outcomee.g. alcohol and fire Recommend NZFS consider its messages and efforts/role in areas • technical • smoke detectors, alarms, built environment • environmental • when fire occurs, in what setting, causes • behavioural • education, advertising, government policy

9. To promote fire safetye.g. the influence of demographics Approach • review issues and establish questions to be addressed • extract data – NZFS and Statistics NZ - what can data tell us, and what does it not tell us? • assess, analyse and evaluate • select case study areas for closer inspection • confirm findings

10. Living researche.g. the influence of demographics • group rather than single factor • regression (data) analysis • increase – density, gas as fuel, qualifications • decrease – separate dwellings, age (45-64) • case studies

11. Outcomee.g. the influence of demographics Recommend NZFS tailor fire safety messages considering impacts of • urban v rural population growth • increasing urban density • apartments v separate dwellings • gas as heating fuel • age and qualification characteristics of popn

12. To improve NZFS operationse.g. composite performance measure Approach • review – what happens now? • consult – what performance needs measurement? • extract and analyse data – what can data tell us, and what does it not tell us? • construct additional measures • propose

13. Living research e.g. composite performance measure • performance of NZFS assessed on outcomes • state of capability and readiness not incorporated in current performance measures

14. Outcome e.g. composite performance measure NZFS consider modified composite performance measure • to combine measures of outputs measures and of capability and readiness • is critical if appropriate level of capability and readiness is to be encouraged (and funded)

15. To improve NZFS operationse.g. metadata analysis of CRF studies Approach • establish assessment framework • categorise studies and links to CRF purpose • identify links to NZFS strategic priority areas and operational responsibilities • investigate outcomes of studies • determine contribution of CRF

16. Living researche.g. metadata analysis of CRF studies • over 100 research projects between 1998-2010 • common themes recurring through the years • clear alignment • with CRF purpose • with NZFS strategic priority areas • with NZFS operation responsibilities

17. Outcomee.g. metadata analysis of CRF studies evidence that NZFS use CRF studies to improve fire outcomes

18. To establish costs of fires e.g. costs of industrial fires Approach • literature scan – what is happening elsewhere? • agree costing method • extract data – NZFS and Insurance Council data • construct estimation model and populate • report results

19. Living research e.g. costs of industrial fires • impact on business activity • direct economic interruption • indirect impact on suppliers • effect on wider community • impact on fire service • cost of operational readiness

20. Outcomee.g. costs of industrial fires evidence that improving fire outcomes closely related to operational readiness of NZFS

21. To establish costs of fires e.g. value of statistical life (VoSL) Approach • literature scan – what is happening elsewhere? • explore costing options • devise survey questions • undertake survey and assess responses • impute VoSL from responses • report results

22. Living research e.g. value of statistical life (VoSL) • is VoSL from fire event different VoSL from road accident event? • perceptions of risk and of ‘personal control’ lie at heart of different values

23. Outcomee.g. value of statistical life (VoSL) NZFS consider adopting appropriate VoSL for Regulatory Impact Statements and relative assessments

24. Quantitative, Practical, Theoretical or Strategic?