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Two stages in Azerbaijan in terms of Energy Diplomacy

Azerbaijan ’ s Energy Diplomacy: Balancing North and South, Going West Dr. Elnur Soltanov, IFDT, Baku, 2012. Two stages in Azerbaijan in terms of Energy Diplomacy. Diplomacy serving Energy - 1990s Energy serving Diplomacy – 2000s. Different options. Energy as a tool of diplomacy

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Two stages in Azerbaijan in terms of Energy Diplomacy

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  1. Azerbaijan’s Energy Diplomacy: Balancing North and South, Going WestDr. Elnur Soltanov, IFDT, Baku, 2012

  2. Two stages in Azerbaijan in terms of Energy Diplomacy Diplomacy serving Energy - 1990s Energy serving Diplomacy – 2000s

  3. Different options Energy as a tool of diplomacy Energy as the tool of diplomacy Energy as the context of diplomacy

  4. Azerbaijan’s Energy Policy Not in par with agricultural, demographic or healthcare policies The framework determining the foreign policy identity of the country Energy policy has not been the purpose though The main and the most important aspect of the oil/gas factor: consolidation of sovereignty

  5. Consolidating Sovereignty • Two major issues vis-à-vis this goal in 1990s: • 1. Nagorno Karabakh • 2. Oil and Gas

  6. Outcome • Prosperous and Stable Azerbaijan • Consolidated Sovereignty • Now, it is time to settle the dispute

  7. What energy means regionally and globally? Georgia, Turkey: Blessing Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan: Support EU and the US: Security Russia and Iran: Concern Price paid by Azerbaijan: Nagorno Karabakh

  8. Oil and Gas Policy of Azerbaijan • Imitating the successes of oil policy while applying the lessons learned in the process • Maintain the overall position achieved already: the energy situation is good enough

  9. Conclusions • Repeat the success of oil in gas deals • Bear in mind that the current situation is beneficial enough • Keep Russia and Iran satisfied • Cement the relationship with progressive countries • Keep alternatives open: as long as cost effective • Managing relations with Turkey: too many eggs, but also the most reliable • Keeping healthy relations with Georgia

  10. Thank you! • esoltanov@ada.edu.az

  11. Things to Watch • Rate of extraction vs. Rate of new findings • Peak oil and gas? • This could intensify exploration in new fields – a potential for conflict in the Caspian

  12. Turkey and Azerbaijan • Turkey: doing well and relaxed • a. already feeling like an energy transit country • Lucrative and politically strategic deals with Russia • Knows it is the best option

  13. Turkey and Azerbaijan • Azerbaijan: doing well and relaxed • a. earning more than $10 billion a year; in some ways more than its economy could absorb • $30 billion in the oil fund • Less sure knows Turkey well enough

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