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Session 4: Projecting the levels of mortality, fertility and migration

Session 4: Projecting the levels of mortality, fertility and migration. Models and exercises Copy folder “Hands-on Exercises” with the model templates to your computer. Projecting levels of mortality. Overview. Projecting levels of mortality.

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Session 4: Projecting the levels of mortality, fertility and migration

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  1. Session 4:Projecting the levels of mortality, fertility and migration Models and exercises • Copy folder “Hands-on Exercises” with the model templates to your computer

  2. Projecting levels of mortality Overview

  3. Projecting levels of mortality • Mortality change (and fertility change) are processes where new behavior is gradually being adopted by people. It is similar to the processes of a new product penetrating a market. In other words: A diffusion process. • Diffusion processes are often modeled by a logistic function.

  4. Projecting levels of mortality

  5. Projecting levels of mortality Δt=100 K=90

  6. Projecting levels of mortality I: United Nations Model

  7. Projecting levels of mortality I: United Nations Model

  8. Projecting levels of mortality I: United Nations Model

  9. Projecting levels of mortality I: United Nations Model

  10. UNPD_MorModel.xlsm 1. Enter description 2. Enter your data 2. Select a model for each sex

  11. UNPD_MorModel.xlsm

  12. UNPD_MorModel.xlsm

  13. Projecting level of mortality II:US Census Bureau Model • The model in spreadsheet E0LGST.xls interpolates and extrapolates life expectancies at birth, by sex. The program fits a logistic function to 2 to 17 life expectancies at birth, given the upper and lower asymptotes.

  14. E0LGST.xls • Input data for E0LGST.xls • Table number [“Table 123”] • Country name and Year [“Poplandia: 1960 and 1980”] • Lower asymptote [leave default] • Upper asymptote [leave default] • 2-17 data points of observed life expectancy • Dates for life expectancy [Decimal years: 1960.5 for midyear] • Values for male, female life expectancy • Sex ratio at birth [male births per female births] • Start year for listing results • Sources of input data

  15. E0LGST.xls 1. Enter description 2. Enter observed life expectancies 3. Enter parameter 4. Retrieve projection(Automatic update)

  16. E0LGST.xls

  17. E0LGST.xls

  18. Hands-on exercise: Mortality • Make yourself familiar with the Excel templates • E0LGST.xls [USBC] • UNPD_MorModel.xls/UNPD_MorModel.xlsm [UNPD] • Prepare a projection using a target level of life expectancy or a typical rate of change. • Validity check I: Sex-differentials in e0

  19. Hands-on exercise: Mortality • Validity check II: Explore ways to ensure that the projected trends are compatible with past trends.

  20. Projecting levels of fertility Overview

  21. Projecting levels of fertility I:United Nation Model • Applies a similar model as for mortality. • Not the level itself, but the rates of changes are modeled • Incorporates the observation that during the demographic transition, fertility first changed slowly, then accelerated and finally decelerated

  22. UNPD_FerModel.xls 1. Enter description 2. Enter data 3. Select a model

  23. UNPD_FerModel.xls

  24. Projecting level of fertility II:US Census Bureau Model The model in spreadsheet TFRLGSTNew.xls interpolates and extrapolates life expectancies at birth, by sex. The program fits a logistic function to 2 to 17 life expectancies at birth, given the upper and lower asymptotes.

  25. TFRLGSTNew.xls • Input data for TFRLGSTNew.xls • Table number [“Table 123”] • Country name and Year [“Poplandia: 1960 and 1980”] • Lower asymptote [leave default] • Upper asymptote [leave default] • 2-17 data points of observed TFR • Reference dates for TFR [Decimal years: 1960.5 for midyear] • Values for TFR • Start year for listing results • Sources of input data

  26. TFRLGSTNew.xls 1. Enter description 2. Enter observed TFR 3. Enter parameter 4. Retrieve projection(Automatic update)

  27. TFRLGST.xls

  28. TFRLGSTNew.xls

  29. Hands-on exercise: Fertility • Make yourself familiar with the Excel templates • TFRLGSTNew.xls [USBC] • UNPD_FerModel.xls/UNPD_FerModel.xlsm [UNPD] • Prepare a projection using a target level of Total Fertility or a typical rate of change. • Validity check I: Explore ways to ensure that the projected trends are compatible with past trends.

  30. Excursion: Test data • Spectrum comes with a complete database of national estimates and projections for all countries (WPP2010). • The data are formatted into time series for single years, and into single years of age. • How to obtain the data?

  31. Spectrum: Step 1

  32. Spectrum: Step 2

  33. Spectrum: Step 3

  34. Spectrum: Step 4

  35. Spectrum: Step 5

  36. Spectrum: Step 6

  37. Spectrum: Step 7.1

  38. Spectrum: Step 7.2 Copy to clipboard Paste into Excel Transpose, if necessary

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