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Shrinking Population

Shrinking Population. Bureau of Statistics Lesotho. Outline of the Presentation. Standards and Practices Preliminary Results Possible Causes of Decline Population Trends Validation of Results Conclusion. Standards and Practices. Censuses are usually done every ten years.

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Shrinking Population

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  1. Shrinking Population Bureau of Statistics Lesotho

  2. Outline of the Presentation • Standards and Practices • Preliminary Results • Possible Causes of Decline • Population Trends • Validation of Results • Conclusion

  3. Standards and Practices Censuses are usually done every ten years. Lesotho undertakes a population census decennially since 1936. The latest census was conducted in April 2006 and the processing of census data is in progress. Census publication standards require publication of results within the period of 2 to 3 years after main data collection.

  4. 2006 Population Census Preliminary Results The 2006 Population Census Preliminary results are available for the 10 administrative districts, 80 constituencies as well as 128 local community councils. The 2006 Lesotho Population Census Preliminary Results present the De jure Population for the districts, Urban and Rural areas by sex. According to the 2006 Census preliminary results, the population of Lesotho is 1,880,661.

  5. 2006 Population Census Preliminary Results (Cont.) Compared with 1996 Census figures, the implied intercensal growth rate is considerably low at 0.1 percent. Using 1986 as base, the implied growth rate is 0.82 percent Projections that factored in the impact of AIDS put the population of Lesotho at 1,995,000 with a growth rate of 0.63 percent (UN, 2007) also the State of the World Population 2007 estimates Lesotho’s population at 1.8m with a growth rate of –0.3 percent (UNFPA, 2007 : 90)

  6. Possible Causes of Decline in Population Growth Fertility: Fertility has been declining since 1986 The 1986 TFR was 5.3, it declined to 4.1 in 1996. 3.5 children per woman was noted in 2004 LDHS. Mortality: Mortality on the other hand seems to be rising. Life expectancy at birth declined from 59 years for both sex in 1996 to 42.4 years in 2006 (UN, 2006) The net effect of the observed declining fertility and rising mortality partly explain slowing down of population growth rate.

  7. Possible Causes of Decline in Population Growth (Cont.) • The average household size in 1996 was 5.0 while that of 2006 was 4.2 • More than half of Lesotho’s population is female. And high proportion of women are educated. Therefore, the more education these women get the fewer the number of children to be expected.

  8. Possible Causes of Decline in Population Growth (Cont.) • Women are now having half the number of children their mothers used to have in the early 60s. • This may be due to high and increasing usage of contraceptives. • The trend illustrates that CPR was: • About 6.9 percent in 1986, • 23.1 percent in 1996 and • 41.2 percent in 2004 (LDHS).

  9. Table2: 2006 Total De Jure Population by Residence and Sex

  10. Figure 3: Urban Population Since 1986

  11. Table 4: Sex Ratios by Districts Since 1986

  12. Table 4: Sex Ratios by Districts Since 1986 Cont

  13. Validation of Census Results Sometimes undercount of the population occurs in censuses. The Bureau of Statistics undertook a Post Enumeration Survey (PES) two weeks after completion of census enumeration. The PES was done to provide coverage estimates, which measures the extent to which the census counts all the people. The PES covered a representative sample of 224 EAs.

  14. Validation of Census Results (Cont.) The survey completely re-enumerated all individuals in the sample and matched their records to those reported in the census. This will enable estimation of the number of people that may have been missed by the census. Demographic analysis will also be made to provide estimates of the population independent of the census. Information will be used to validate the final census

  15. Conclusion • Though we are still waiting for the analysis of the census and PES results, but it looks like Lesotho is experiencing drastic decline in population. Thus moving towards a shrinking population!

  16. Thank You! You can visit us at:http://www.bos.gov.ls/

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