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South American Monsoon Evolution & Conditions

Update from the Climate Prediction Center/NCEP on recent evolution and current conditions of the South American Monsoon System, including rainfall patterns over the past 7, 30, and 90 days. Forecasts provided for upcoming weeks. Useful information for monitoring and understanding monsoon trends in the region.

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South American Monsoon Evolution & Conditions

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  1. The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 6 February 2012 For more information, visit:http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/American_Monsoons

  2. Outline • Highlights • Recent Evolution and Current Conditions • NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts • Climatology

  3. Highlights • During the last 7 days, above-average rainfall was observed over Guyana, Suriname, French Guiana, and portions of western Brazil, southeastern Colombia, southeastern Peru, Bolivia, and Paraguay. Below-average rainfall was observed over much of Brazil (especially the central, northeastern, and southern portions), northwestern Argentina, and eastern Peru. • For 6-12 Feb 2012, above-average rainfall is predicted over northern Peru, southeastern Ecuador, western and southern Colombia, and northern Paraguay. Below-average rainfall is predicted clearly over much of Brazil (especially over its central and eastern portions), Bolivia, southern Paraguay, and northeastern Argentina. • For 13-19 Feb 2012, above-average rainfall is predicted over central and northeastern Brazil, Bolivia, northern Paraguay, and northern Argentina. Below-average rainfall is predicted over Guyana, Suriname, southern Venezuela, northern Brazil, Colombia, western Peru, and southeastern Brazil.

  4. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns:Last 7 Days Total Anomaly During the last 7 days, above-average rainfall was observed over Guyana, Suriname, French Guiana, and portions of western Brazil, southeastern Colombia, southeastern Peru, Bolivia, and Paraguay. Below-average rainfall was observed over much of Brazil (especially the central, northeastern, and southern portions), northwestern Argentina, and eastern Peru.

  5. Rainfall Totals & Anomaly Patterns:Last 30 Days Total Anomaly During the last 30 days, above-average rainfall was mainly observed over northwestern South America (south of 5N), northern Paraguay, and portions of central Brazil. Below-average rainfall was seen over most of Brazil, eastern Peru, eastern Bolivia, southern Paraguay, Uruguay, and northern Argentina.

  6. BP Recent Evolution: RainfallLast 90 Days BP: Brazilian Plateau • 90-day rainfall totals are below average over the southern Amazon basin. They are also slightly below average over the Brazilian Plateau, the core monsoon region. • 90-day totals are significantly below average in southern Brazil.

  7. Tropical Pacific and Atlantic SST Anomalies Below-average SSTs are present in the tropical Pacific Ocean. (For more details concerning El Niño – La Niña, go to the link below.) A weekly PowerPoint summarizing the ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions is available at: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/enso.shtml

  8. Atmospheric Circulation Recent 7 days Unavailable this time

  9. 925-hPa Wind &Temperature Unavailable this time

  10. NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Bias-Corrected Precipitation Forecasts from 6 February 2012 – Days 1-7 Total Anomaly Note: Bias correction based on last 30-day forecast error.

  11. NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Bias-Corrected Precipitation Forecasts from 6 February 2012 – Days 8-14 Total Anomaly Note: Bias correction based on last 30-day forecast error.

  12. NCEP/GFS MODEL FORECASTS • For Days 1-7 (6-12 Feb 2012), above-average rainfall is predicted over northern Peru, southeastern Ecuador, western and southern Colombia, and northern Paraguay. Below-average rainfall is predicted clearly over much of Brazil (especially over its central and eastern portions), Bolivia, southern Paraguay, and northeastern Argentina. • For Days 8-14 (13-19 Feb 2012), above-average rainfall is predicted over central and northeastern Brazil, Bolivia, northern Paraguay, and northern Argentina. Below-average rainfall is predicted over Guyana, Suriname, southern Venezuela, northern Brazil, Colombia, western Peru, and southeastern Brazil.

  13. Forecast Verification Forecast from 23 Jan 2012 Valid 30 Jan – 5 Jan 2012 Forecast from 29 Jan 2012 Valid 29 Jan – 4 Feb 2012 Observed 30 Jan – 5 Feb 2012

  14. ClimatologyRainy Season Dates ONSET DEMISE

  15. Precipitation Climatology

  16. Precipitation Climatology Animation

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