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Structuring Risk Management Decisions Using Scenario Planning Methods

An Illustration Using the RSVP. Stephen D. Hart, PhD. Structuring Risk Management Decisions Using Scenario Planning Methods. Rationale.

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Structuring Risk Management Decisions Using Scenario Planning Methods

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  1. An Illustration Using the RSVP Stephen D. Hart, PhD Structuring Risk Management Decisions Using Scenario Planning Methods

  2. Rationale • The RSVP is a new set of structured professional judgment (SPJ) guidelines designed to facilitate comprehensive, treatment-oriented sexual violence risk assessments • It builds on other SPJ guidelines, such as the Sexual Violence Risk-20 (SVR-20)

  3. Administration

  4. Step 4

  5. Basic Scenarios

  6. Step 5

  7. Strategies

  8. Evaluative Research

  9. Interrater Reliability • Interrater reliability of presence and relevance ratings for individual risk factors is good to excellent • There is no difference in reliability for ratings of presence and relevance of individual risk factors • Interrater reliability of domain and overall ratings is good to excellent • Interrater reliability of summary judgments is excellent

  10. Concurrent Validity • Concurrent validity with respect to SPJs and ARAIs is good • Most strongly related to SVR-20 and SORAG, likely due to content overlap • The common variance among instruments can be accounted for in large part by psychopathy • Various RSVP summary judgments have different concurrent validities • Case prioritization ratings are more strongly related to actuarial scores than are other ratings

  11. Predictive Validity • Sexual violence risk assessments made using the RSVP have moderate predictive validity • Equivalent to that of SVR-20, ARAIs • Similar to SPJs and ARAIs in past research

  12. Future Research

  13. Scenarios • How do evaluators develop scenarios? • Talk-aloud analysis to examine case information, risk factors, and implicit theories used by evaluators • What is the nature of the scenarios generated? • Content analysis to examine numbers, details, distinctiveness • What is the interrater reliability of scenarios of future sexual violence? • Evaluate similarity of scenarios between raters/within cases versus between raters/between cases

  14. Management Strategies • How do evaluators develop plans? • Talk-aloud analysis to examine case information, risk factors, and implicit theories used by evaluators • What is the nature of the plans generated? • Content analysis to examine numbers, details, distinctiveness • What is the interrater reliability of strategies? • Evaluate similarity of plans between raters/within cases versus between raters/between cases

  15. Efficacy • Do scenarios and plans influence improve case management? • RCT to evaluate improvements in service delivery and violence prevention

  16. Correspondence • Stephen D. Hart, PhDPsychology DepartmentSimon Fraser University8888 University DriveBurnaby, BCCanada V5A 1S6 E-mail: hart@sfu.ca

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