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Recipient of James Watt Gold Medal

The Energy Trilema: The Challenges of Energy Security and Affordability of our Future Energy Supplies. Institution of Civil Engineers Leeds: October 14 th 2014. Recipient of James Watt Gold Medal.

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Recipient of James Watt Gold Medal

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  1. The Energy Trilema: The Challenges of Energy Security and Affordability of our Future Energy Supplies Institution of Civil Engineers Leeds: October 14th 2014 Recipient of James Watt Gold Medal Keith Tovey (杜伟贤) MA, PhD, CEng, MICE, CEnv : Reader Emeritus in Environmental Engineering , Norwich Business School, University of East Anglia, Norwich

  2. The Triple Challenges of Carbon Reduction, Energy Security and Cost of our Future Energy Supplies • Some of the Key issues • What are key issues of Energy Security, particularly in the next few years with older stations closing and UK now dependent on over 50% of its gas from imported sources and also two thirds of its coal? • What might the future electricity generation mix look like? • How does UK energy mix compare with that of other countries? • What contribution might “Fracking” provide for security for electricity generation? • To what extent would variable renewables such as wind cause issues on the secure supply of electricity? • What are the cost implications of the options available? • What is the impact of support for renewables on the price of electricity? • Are the lights likely to go out over the next few years?

  3. Wholesale Cost of Electricity UK no longer self sufficient in gas Oil reaches $130 a barrel Severe Cold Spells Langeled Line to Norway UK Government Projection in 2003 for 2020 wholesale prices updated to 16th September 2014 Weekly volume weighted average Wholesale Prices Wholesale prices are 2.5 times what they were in 2004

  4. Variation in Wholesale and Retail Electriity Prices In recent years, electricity retail prices have varied much less than wholesale prices. However in recent months retail prices have risen above long term wholesale trends.

  5. What are causes of price rises in recent years? • In period 2004-13, Electricity Bills for average household have risen from ~ £288 to around ~£577 or ~100%* • How much can be attributed to support for Renewables under the Renewable obligation? • Support for All Renewables in 2012-13 was £1.99 billion **. • However 313,569,728 MWh was supplied • representing an increase of 0.69 p/kWh in retail price of electricity • At typical domestic unit prices of 13 – 14p per kWh this represents and increase of just 4.9%. • Of this the impact of onshore wind on bills in 2012-13 was 0.22p per kWh or ~ 1.7%. For offshore the figures are 0.16p and 1.2% respectively. • Wholesale prices had risen from 2p in 2004 to 4.5p per kWh by end of 2013. * Data from Quarterly Energy Prices from DECC Website ** OFGEM Annual Report

  6. CO2 Emissions and Electricity (kg/kWh) UK World Average 0.550 France Overall: UK ~500 gm/kWh: France ~80 gm/kWh Saudi Arabia ~700 gm/kWh * Extracted from IEA Statistics in Jan 2014 – data relate to 2010 6

  7. Electricity Generation Mix in selected Countries 2010 Coal Oil Gas Nuclear Hydro/ Tidal/Wave Other Renewables Biofuels/Waste

  8. Impact of Electricity Generation on Carbon Emissions. Approximate Carbon Emission factors during electricity generation including fuel extraction, fabrication and transport. • Transmission/Distribution losses UK ~ 8%: India ~ 24% • * DECC Guidance for reporting July 2014

  9. Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Non-Renewable Methods Impact of temporary switch to coal generation Import Gap Gas supply has become critical at times – e.g. at end of March 2013 – down to 6 hours supply following technical problems on Norwegian Pipeline.

  10. Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Non-Renewable Methods Nuclear New Build assumes one new station is completed each year after 2020. * Energy Review 2011 – Climate Change Committee May 2011 * Energy Generation Costs: DECC 2013 Central Projection

  11. Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable 1.5MW Turbine At peak output provides sufficient electricity for 3000 homes – operating for 12 years On average has provided electricity for 700 – 850 homes depending on year * Energy Review 2011 – Climate Change Committee May 2011 * Energy Generation Costs: DECC 2013 Central Projection

  12. Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable * Energy Review 2011 – Climate Change Committee May 2011 * Energy Generation Costs: DECC 2013 Central Projection Scroby Sands has a Load factor of 28.8% - 30% but nevertheless produced sufficient electricity on average for 2/3rds of demand of houses in Norwich. At Peak time sufficient for all houses in Norwich and Ipswich

  13. Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable Micro Hydro Scheme operating on Siphon Principle installed at Itteringham Mill, Norfolk. Rated capacity 5.5 kW * Energy Review 2011 – Climate Change Committee May 2011 * Energy Generation Costs: DECC 2013 Central Projection

  14. Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable Climate Change Report 2011 suggests that 1.6 TWh (0.4%) in 2020 - ~ 2.0 GW. But 2.1 GW already installed (Oct. 2014) * Energy Review 2011 – Climate Change Committee May 2011 * Energy Generation Costs: DECC 2013 Central Projection

  15. Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable To provide 5% of UK electricity needs will require an area the size of Norfolk and Suffolk devoted solely to biomass * Energy Review 2011 – Climate Change Committee May 2011 * Energy Generation Costs: DECC 2013 Central Projection

  16. Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable * Energy Review 2011 – Climate Change Committee May 2011 * Energy Generation Costs: DECC 2013 Central Projection

  17. Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable Open Hydro commissioned off Eday – Sept 2007 Alstom Device seen at Hatston April 2013 * Energy Review 2011 – Climate Change Committee May 2011 * Energy Generation Costs: DECC 2013 Central Projection

  18. Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable The Royal Oak was sunk 75 years ago this evening (14th October) with the loss of 800 lives. Severn Barrage/ Mersey Barrages have been considered frequently e.g. pre war – 1970s, 2009 Severn Barrage could provide 5-8% of UK electricity needs In Orkney – Churchill Barriers Output ~80 000 GWh per annum - Sufficient for 13500 houses in Orkney but there are only 4000 in Orkney. Controversy in bringing cables south. Would save 40000 tonnes of CO2 * Energy Review 2011 – Climate Change Committee May 2011 * Energy Generation Costs: DECC 2013 Central Projection

  19. Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable * Energy Review 2011 – Climate Change Committee May 2011 * Energy Generation Costs: DECC 2013 Central Projection

  20. Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable * Energy Review 2011 – Climate Change Committee May 2011 * Energy Generation Costs: DECC 2013 Central Projection

  21. Our Choices: They are difficult • Do we want to exploit available renewables i.e onshore/offshore wind and biomass?. Offshore Wind much more expensive. Solar PV is now mature but also more expensive than on shore wind. • Tidal and wave are not options for next 10 - 15 years except as demonstration projects. [technically immature ] • If our answer is NO • Do we want to see a renewal of nuclear power ? • Are we happy with this and the other attendant risks? • If our answer is NO • Do we want to return to using coal? • then carbon dioxide emissions will rise significantly • unless we can develop significant carbon sequestration within 10 years UNLIKELY – confirmed by Climate Change Committee [9th May 2011] If our answer to coal is NO Do we want to leave things are they are and see continued exploitation of gas for both heating and electricity generation? >>>>>>

  22. Our Choices: They are difficult • If our answer is YES • By 2020 • the UK will be dependent on GAS • for around 70% of our heating and electricity • The majority of which will be imported at volatile prices from countries such as Norway, Russia, Middle East • Are we happy with this prospect? >>>>>> • If not: • We need even more substantial cuts in energy use. • Or are we prepared to sacrifice our future to effects of Global Warming? - the North Norfolk Coal Field? Do we wish to reconsider our stance on renewables? Inaction or delays in decision making will lead us down the GAS option route and all the attendant Security issues that raises. We must take a coherent integrated approach in our decision making – not merely be against one technology or another

  23. Impact of Fracking on Electricity Supply to 2030 Output declines by 95% over first 3-4 years Total output from Fracking Well over 20 years is equivalent to two 3 MW wind turbines

  24. Estimates of Total UK Production of Fracked Gas • The most optimistic scenario data from above are used • Electricity Scenario assumes • similar split of gas use for electricity / non-electricity demand • 5% improvement in efficiency for CCGT generation plant • Maximum generation from Fracked gas = ~36.5 TWhby 2030 Based on Figure 3.1 in Tyndall (2011b) Report

  25. Future Scenarios for Electricity Generation up to 2030 Assume Highest Projection for Fracked Gas Future Demand – Climate Change Committee (2011) estimates • Assuming significant growth in electricity for electric vehicles and heat pumps • Alternative demand – limited growth in electric vehicles and heat pumps. Renewable Generation • Current Projections for Onshore and Offshore wind • 1 million homes/year fitted with PV ~ 40% fitted by 2030 • Severn Tidal Barrage or equivalent completed by 2025 Fossil Fuel/Nuclear Generation • Existing Nuclear / Coal Stations close as published 09/09/2013 • New Nuclear completions at one reactor per year from 2021. • New Coal with CCS as demonstration schemes @ 300 MW per annum from 2020 & 1000 MW per annum from mid 2020s Gas including Fracked Gas will cover any shortfall between DEMAND and COAL + NUCLEAR + RENEWABLE GENERATION

  26. Our looming over-dependence on gas for electricity generation Limited electric cars or heat pumps Fracked Gas Imported Gas Oil UK Gas Offshore Wind Existing Coal Onshore Wind Oil Other Renewables Existing Nuclear Existing Coal New Coal ? Data for modelling derived from DECC & Climate Change Committee (2011) - allowing for significant deployment of electric vehicles and heat pumps by 2030. New Nuclear? Existing Nuclear Data for modelling derived from DECC & Climate Change Committee (2011) - allowing for significant deployment of electric vehicles and heat pumps by 2030. Data for demand derived from DECC & Climate Change Committee (2011) - allowing for significant deployment of electric vehicles and heat pumps by 2030. 26

  27. Predictability of UK Wind Generation To what extent would variable renewables such as wind cause issues on the secure supply of electricity? 26th Sep 27th Sep 28th Sep 29th Sep 30th Sep Graph shows Wind Energy Prediction 48 and 24 hours in advance and also actual output. Predictions are now very good Data abstracted from BMReports Website

  28. How Predictable is Wind Energy? Predictions made for each hour in 2013 had a correlation of 96.48% Predictions made for each hour in 2014 have had a correlation of 97.06% up to 5th October 2014 Data abstracted daily from BMReports Website. Last occurrence at 08:30 on 6th October 2014

  29. Does Wind Variability cause problems with other generation? 06th October 2014 To GB From GB Data abstracted from BMReports Website at 21:30 on 6th October 2014 • Net Generation in GB rises from 18941MW at 0500 to 38195MW at 0800 an increase of 19254MW in 3 hours. • Maximum change in Wind Output in a 3 hour period on day was 2460 MW (on this occasion it reduced the net generation demand change).

  30. Variation of Load Factors over last 15 years Since 2012 load factors of Gas, Hydro, Onshore Wind, Offshore Wind and Bioenergy have been comparable close to 30% Load Factor Data abstracted from DUKES (2014) Tables 5.9 & 6.5

  31. Annual Wind Variations are in phase with Demand Wind Load Factor Variations follow general demand trend. Solar Load Factor trend is complementary to that of wind Data for 2013 abstracted from DECC, Elexon and BMReports Websites – Oct 1st – 5th 2014

  32. Generation at the Domestic Level • Energy Generation • Solar thermal - providing hot water - most suitable for domestic installations, hotels – generally less suitable for other businesses • Solar PV – providing electricity - suitable for all sizes of installation • Example 2 panel ( 2.6 sqm ) in Norwich – generates 826kWh/year (average over 7 years). • The more hot water you use the more solar heat you get! • Renewable Heat Incentive available from 2014 • Area required for 1 kW peak varies from ~ 5.5 to 8.5 sqm depending on technology and manufacturer • Approximate annual estimate of generation • = installed capacity * 8760 * 0.1 hours in year load/capacity factor of 10%

  33. Current and Future Generation Costs Effective Renewable Costs ROC banding introduced Volume Weighted Average wholesale prices over year Effective Renewable Costs = Wholesale Price + ROC Value

  34. The future is our Responsibility In the Next 10 Years • Energy Security and Cost issues in the UK will become just as important as Carbon reduction and at times supply could become critical. • New nuclear and coal will not be available until after 2020 and there will be an increasing dependance on imported gas at volatile prices. • Renewables such as Wind are now very predictable at the 24 hour time scale and can be used strategically with gas generation for a supply which is secure and can respond to demand. • Currently support for renewables is less than 10% of retail prices. • The UK needs a diverse mix of nuclear, renewables and fossil fuels to provide the resources to tackle the Trilema of Climatye Change, Energy Security and the Cost of Future Energy

  35. Are there likely to be issues on security in next few years? • Closure of Nuclear Stations • Hinkley Point B and Hunterston are down rated at 70%. • Heysham 1, Hinkley Point B, Hartlepool, and Hunterston have all been affected by cracking which may mean up to 4 units out of action until end of December • pose questions on extended lives indicated above. * World Nuclear Association – September 2014

  36. Are there likely to be issues on security in next few years? • Closure of Coal/Oil Stations Above stations opted out of the Large Combustion Plant Directive and must close by end of 2015 at latest. On October 6th 2014 – an announced was made that Longannet (2.23 GW) may also close in 2017 even though it complies with the LCPD

  37. Are there likely to be issues on security in next few years? Strategies being taken by National Grid Demand Side Balancing Reserve (DSBR) Providing opportunity for large industrial consumers to shed load between period 32 (i.e. 16:00hrs) and period 40 (20:00 hours) over the Triad Period November to February. Consumers will be paid for such action. Planned reduction of 570MW for 2014/15 (or ~ 1% of peak demand) And 1140MW for 2015/16 Modelling of impact has been done on the basis of the Value of Lost Load payments at £17 per kWh – implying total payments of up to £1.15 M per day over the Triad Period Supplementary Balancing Reserve (SBR) provision is also planned – i.e having plant which have been mothballed or closed available for providing capacity.

  38. The future is our Responsibility We must take a coherent integrated approach in our decision making on energy – both on supply and demand. We must promote Energy Conservation and develop a coherent generation mix to provide a low carbon, energy secure and affordable future, not only for electricity but also for heat and transport. And Finally Keith Tovey (杜伟贤) “If you do not change direction, you may end up where you are heading.” LaoTzu (604-531 BC) Chinese Artist and Taoist philosopher

  39. Arctic Sea Ice Cover 1979 - 2012 • Minimum Summer Sea Ice in 1979 ~ 7.01 million sq km • Red line outlines extent for reference • Minimum Summer Sea Ice in 2012 ~ 3.44 million sq km • a loss of 51% in 33 years • Significantly lower in 2012 than average minimum • Source http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/2012-seaicemin.html

  40. Raising Awareness How many people know what 9 tonnes of CO2 looks like? On average each person in UK causes the emission of 9 tonnes of CO2 each year. 5 hot air balloons per person per year. "Nobody made a greater mistake than he who did nothing because he thought he could do only a little." Edmund Burke (1727 – 1797)

  41. Raising Awareness At Gao’an No 1 Primary School in Xuhui District, Shanghai 上海徐汇区高第一小学 • A tumble dryer uses 4 times as much energy as a washing machine. Using it 5 times a week will cost ~ £100 a year just for this appliance alone and emit over half a tonne of CO2. • 10 gms of carbon dioxide has an equivalent volume of 1 party balloon. • A Mobile Phone charger: > 10 kWh per year • ~ 500 balloons each year. • Standby on electrical appliances • up to 20 - 150+ kWh a year - 7500 balloons. (up to £15 a year) • A Toyota Corolla (1400cc): 1 party balloon every 60m. • Filling up with petrol (~£55 for a full tank – 40 litres) • --------- 90 kg of CO2 (5% of one hot air balloon) How far does one have to drive in a small family car (e.g. 1400 cc Toyota Corolla) to emit as much carbon dioxide as heating an old persons room for1 hour? 1.6 miles School children at the Al Fatah University, Tripoli, Libya

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