Decision Making in the Setting of Uncertainty: The 6 Thinking Hats

Jul 14, 2012

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Decision Making in the Setting of Uncertainty: The 6 Thinking Hats

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1. Decision Making in the Setting of Uncertainty: The 6 Thinking Hats Y. Hernandez Suarez, MD, MBA August 19, 2011

4. INFORMATION, MANAGEMENT & DECISION MAKING

4. INFORMATION, MANAGEMENT & DECISION MAKING. 4.1. LEARNING OBJECTIVES. EVALUATE SCHOOLS OF MANAGEMENT THINKING DESCRIBE LEVELS, TYPES, STAGES OF DECISION MAKING COMPARE INDIVIDUAL & ORGANIZATIONAL DECISION MAKING *. 4.2. LEARNING OBJECTIVES. ASSESS CHANGING MANAGEMENT PROCESS

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Decision Support Modelling Under Uncertainty Empowering organisations with clarity

Decision Support Modelling Under Uncertainty Empowering organisations with clarity . Strategy Foresight works with senior officers and direction-setting teams to:. Perform a very advanced form of (knowledge) gap analysis Tackle genuine uncertainty before modelling risk

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Expected Utility Theory. How to deal with uncertainty. Introduction. we have talked about individual decision making in the absence of uncertainty in reality, we usually make decision under uncertainty example: 1 . uncertainty from product quality (second-hand vehicle)

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Quantitative Analysis for Management

Quantitative Analysis for Management. Chapter 3 Fundamentals of Decision Theory Models. Chapter Outline. 3.1 Introduction 3.2 The Six Steps in Decision Theory 3.3 Types of Decision-Making Environments 3.4 Decision Making Under Risk 3.5 Decision Making Under Uncertainty

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A unique software and decision making platform for collaborative thinking and decision making

A unique software and decision making platform for collaborative thinking and decision making. Ethelo Hosts. John Richardson Vision and Execution. Darryl Brousseau Sales and marketing. Kent Mewhort Technology development. John Dowler Web support. Justin Simpson Board member.

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Managerial Decision Modeling with Spreadsheets

Managerial Decision Modeling with Spreadsheets. Chapter 8 Decision Theory. Learning Objectives. List steps of decision making process. Describe different types of decision making environments. Make decisions under uncertainty when probabilities are not known.

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Six Thinking Hats: An Innovation Tool for Group Discussion & Parallel Thinking

Six Thinking Hats: An Innovation Tool for Group Discussion & Parallel Thinking. Jan McNally Corporate Director, Leadership Development Covenant Health. Six Thinking Hats . Method used for parallel thinking devised by Dr. Edward De Bono Physician, Ph.D Degrees in psychology and physiology

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Demonstration: Decision-Making Under Uncertainty

Demonstration: Decision-Making Under Uncertainty. We will demonstrate the principles using a simple (but real) example. This is a personal investment decision. The outcome is uncertain. The potential gains/losses are real. What is the most that you are willing to invest?. MasterCard. VISA.

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Decision Making

Decision Making. George Mason University. Today’s topics. Review of Chapter 2: Decision Making Go over exercises Decision making in Python. 2. What is a decision statement?. Must always evaluate to true or false The decision must be composed of variables we have already given values to.

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SIX THINKING HATS Finale Page

SIX THINKING HATS Finale Page. Amanda Barwick. “The more the hats are used, the more they will become part of the thinking culture… ”.

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De Bono’s Thinking Hats

Emotion. Facts. Negative Logic. Positive Thinking. Creative. Control. De Bono’s Thinking Hats. Parallel thinking. ‘Parallel Thinking’. Focus on one thing at a time; ‘direction, not description’;

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Decision-Making under Uncertainty

Decision-Making under Uncertainty. http://www.cs.berkeley.edu/projects/muri. University of California, Berkeley Venkat Anantharam Laurent El Ghaoui Michael I. Jordan Stuart Russell S. Shankar Sastry University of California, Davis Roger Wets Stanford University Daphne Koller

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Decision Models

Decision Models. Making Decisions Under Risk. Decision Making Under Risk. When doing decision making under uncertainty, we assumed we had “no idea” about which state of nature would occur.

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Simple Decision Making

Simple Decision Making. Ch 16. Decision Making Under Uncertainty. Many environments have multiple possible outcomes Some of these outcomes may be good; others may be bad Some may be very likely; others unlikely What’s a poor agent’s choice??. ?. ?. a. a. b. b. c. c.

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What should I do?. Chapter 3. Decision Making in Healthcare Facilities. Outline. Decision Process What Causes Poor Decisions? The Decision Level & Decision Milieu Decision Making under Uncertainty Payoff Table Methods Decision Making under Risk EVM, EOL, EVPI Decision Tree Approach

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Edward deBono Six Thinking Hats

Edward deBono Six Thinking Hats. An aid to decision making and problem solving Il lustrated by Vince Borg Education Leeds. The Red Hat Think of fire, feelings and warmth. Prinaša občutja – čustva in intuicija postanejo legitimni del razmišljanja. What do you feeel about the

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Decision Making

Decision Making. The following techniques focus more on logic and critical thinking, especially within the context of applying the scientific approach. Decision Making techniques Analysis Backwards planning Categorizing/classifying Challenging assumptions Inductive/deductive reasoning

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Chapter 6

Chapter 6. Decision Making. Learning Objectives After reading this chapter, you should be able to:. Recognize the nature of management decisions: programmability, uncertainty, risk, conflict, decision scope, and crisis situations. Utilize the six steps of decision making.

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Awareness Programme on six thinking hats

Awareness Programme on six thinking hats. six thinking hats. Background Concept Case study. Contents. six thinking hats. Dr. Edward de Bono, originator of six thinking hats. Written more than sixty books on creativity in 35 languages.

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Centre for Excellence and Outcomes in Children and Young People's Services

Centre for Excellence and Outcomes in Children and Young People's Services. Decision Making. Use Six Thinking Hats to explore your options or check your decision-making. Look at the issue ‘wearing’ each of the thinking hats in turn. Each ‘Thinking Hat’ is a different style of thinking.

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Decision Analysis Decision-Making Under Uncertainty updated 10.24.01

SMU EMIS 5300/7300. NTU SY-521-N. Systems Analysis Methods Dr. Jerrell T. Stracener, SAE Fellow. Decision Analysis Decision-Making Under Uncertainty updated 10.24.01. Decision Making Under Uncertainty The decision-maker knows for sure which state

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Decision Making in the Setting of Uncertainty: The 6 Thinking Hats

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Presentation Transcript

4. INFORMATION, MANAGEMENT &amp; DECISION MAKING

Decision Support Modelling Under Uncertainty Empowering organisations with clarity

Expected Utility Theory

Quantitative Analysis for Management

A unique software and decision making platform for collaborative thinking and decision making

Managerial Decision Modeling with Spreadsheets

Six Thinking Hats: An Innovation Tool for Group Discussion &amp; Parallel Thinking

Demonstration: Decision-Making Under Uncertainty

Decision Making

SIX THINKING HATS Finale Page

De Bono’s Thinking Hats

Decision-Making under Uncertainty

Decision Models

Simple Decision Making

Chapter 3. Decision Making in Healthcare Facilities

Edward deBono Six Thinking Hats

Decision Making

Chapter 6

Awareness Programme on six thinking hats

Better decision making through representation and reduction of uncertainty in C 4 I system

Centre for Excellence and Outcomes in Children and Young People's Services

Decision Analysis Decision-Making Under Uncertainty updated 10.24.01

4. INFORMATION, MANAGEMENT & DECISION MAKING

Six Thinking Hats: An Innovation Tool for Group Discussion & Parallel Thinking