Decision Support Modelling Under Uncertainty Empowering organisations with clarity

1. Decision Support Modelling Under UncertaintyEmpowering organisations with clarity

2. Strategy Foresight works with senior officers and direction-setting teams to: • Perform a very advanced form of (knowledge) gap analysis • Tackle genuine uncertainty before modelling risk • Construct scenarios and develop strategy alternatives • Develop ‘what if’ models for stakeholder engagement • Relate means and ends in complex situations with limited resources • Analyse and develop organisational and system structure

3. Strategy Foresight is not a consulting firm • Facilitators who work with very complex issues aka ‘wicked problems’ • Model unintended consequences of policy design, product design features etc. • Proprietary software – models developed in real time with the client • No army of researchers – the client’s workshop team are the specialists

4. Strategy Foresight facilitates entire process by: Deploying highly experienced facilitators • Policy formulation • Product design • Business intelligence • Crisis planning • Futures research Stretch Capture Shape Select Prioritise Designing specialist workshop teams Using processes developed in the military

5. We develop multi-attribute ‘what if’ models for decision support under uncertainty Inputs Outputs The above example depicts 186,624 formal combinations – with facilitation and proprietary software, this can reduced by over 99%

6. …..and provide clients with novel software to construct their own scenarios and strategy alternatives • Input and outputs interchangeable - manipulate both cause and effect • Ability to freeze and compare scenarios and strategy alternatives • Reducing decision alternatives does not require re-developing entire model • Easily updatable: visual, real time systematic group exploration for collective creativity and decision-making • Speed, efficiency and cost of facilitation and model development is a fraction of traditional consultancies

7. Case Study 1: New financial products for uncertain futures • The Client • Major Insurance • firm • Director of Research • with direct • reporting to CEO • The Issue • How to develop new car • insurance products in the • face of uncertain futures • e.g. climate shock, peak oil, • financial crash, war • What type of auto • insurance products for • different customer • segments to remain • ahead of the pack • The Result • Range of niche products • identified for different • customer segments • including those if • financial crash occurred • Implemented strategies • for financial crash • Unearthed novel • solutions such as • car subscription and • instant SMS insurance • The Client • Major Insurance • firm • Director of Research • with direct • reporting to CEO • The Issue • How to develop new car • insurance products in the • face of uncertain futures • e.g. climate shock, peak oil, • financial crash, war • What type of auto • insurance products for • different customer • segments to remain • ahead of the pack • The Intervention • Developed an inference • model framework to allow • client to identify types of • products dependent upon • different future scenarios

8. Case Study 2: Sustainability Issues for large scale producers • The Client • Ministry of Environment • and Environmental • Protection Agency • Minister of State for • Environment • The Issue • Develop scenarios and • appropriate strategies for • Extended Producer • Responsibility (EPR) system • To comply with European • Directives of each member • state implementing EPR • policy • The Intervention • Multi-dimensional matrix • inference model developed • by convening disparate • EPR stakeholders • The Result • Generation of different • future projections with • associated national • strategic directions • e.g. development • of regional high-tech • recycling industry sector

9. What’s the outcome? Accommodate multiple, alternative perspectives to anticipate unintended consequences vs. prescribing single solution Anticipates consequences of decisions made under conditions of high uncertainty, incomplete data and high decision stakes Manage genuine uncertainty by facilitating comparative judgements on a sound methodological basis

10. Strategy Foresight unlocks latent organisational capacity for you to move forward with purpose “Organisations have no spare mental capacity. They’re so preoccupied dealing with their present problems that its nigh-on possible to engage them in a conversation about the future” SFP Management Consulting Association (UK) Annual Report, 2009 Ravetz and Funtowicz, 1993

11. Strategy Foresight is flexible to client needs Foresight Monitoring Foresight Management Foresight Community Knowledge Centre Client assignments Online community Sector Intelligence Client updates Symposia and workshops Custom Research Client crisis management Thought Leadership Insight Analysis Foresight Research Advisory Facilitation Networking Primary and Secondary Research Modelling sectors Training facilitators Peer dialogue Sharing next practice

12. SFP has completed 125+ projects across the globe Improving quality and quantity of investment grade deal flow (UK)* Developing auto insurance products for global threats (Sweden) Bioethics of drug redevelopment (UK) New strategic directions for FMCG multinational (Sweden)* Predicting and mitigating risks to corporate reputation (UK)* Sustainable mining techniques (Brazil) * current projects

13. Contacting Strategy Foresight LLP Strategy Foresight Partnership LLP Innovation Warehouse 1 East Poultry Avenue Farringdon London EC1M 6HJ Tel: 07786 266878 Fax: 0208 8612925 Email: info@strategyforesight.org Web: www.strategyforesight.org