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Reframing Climate Change:

Reframing Climate Change:. How recent emission trends & the latest science change the debate. Kevin Anderson Research director Tyndall Centre University of Manchester November 2008. Based on research by Kevin Anderson & Alice Bows Mechanical, Aerospace and Civil Engineering.

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Reframing Climate Change:

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  1. Reframing Climate Change: How recent emission trends & the latest science change the debate Kevin Anderson Research director Tyndall Centre University of Manchester November 2008 Based on research by Kevin Anderson & Alice Bows Mechanical, Aerospace and Civil Engineering

  2. Talk outline What is dangerous climate change? Reframing the debate - cumulative emissions Global greenhouse gas emission pathways UK greenhouse gas emission pathways

  3. What is dangerous climate change? • UK & EU define this as 2C

  4. What are the ‘correct’ emission-reduction targets for 2C ? • UK, EU & Global - long term reduction targets - UK’s 60% reduction in CO2 by 2050 - EU 60%-80% reduction in CO2 e by 2050 - Bali 50% global reduction in CO2e by 2050 • But CO2 stays in atmosphere for 100+ years • Hence, today’s emissions add to yesterdays & • will be added to by tomorrows • So, focus on long-term targets is very misleading

  5. Put bluntly … the final % reduction in carbon has little relevance to avoiding dangerous climate change (e.g. 2C) What is important are the cumulative emissions of carbon & other greenhouse gases (i.e. the carbon budget)

  6. How do global temperatures link to global and national carbon budgets & from there to emission-reduction pathways?

  7. Temperature threshold science/modelling GHG concentration science/modelling Global cumulative emission budget Global emission pathway 2000-2008 emissions + short-term projections Apportionment regime National emission pathway National cumulative emission budget

  8. Illustrative pathway for a CO2e budget

  9. Illustrative pathway for a CO2e budget Annual CO2e emissions available carbon budget 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

  10. Illustrative pathway for a CO2e budget Plot recent emissions Annual CO2e emissions available carbon budget 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

  11. Illustrative pathway for a CO2e budget Annual CO2e emissions Emissions already released available carbon budget 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

  12. Illustrative pathway for a CO2e budget • We can project: • - Short-term emissions to peak year/s Annual CO2e emissions • We know: • - Cumulative emissions for 2°C Emissions already released available carbon budget 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

  13. Illustrative pathway for a CO2e budget Hence can draw emission pathways Annual CO2e emissions Emissions already released available carbon budget 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

  14. Illustrative pathway for a CO2e budget Annual CO2e emissions Emissions already released carbon budget range 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

  15. How does this ‘scientifically-credible’ way of thinking alter the challenge we face at: 1) the global level 2) the UK level

  16. the global level

  17. Tyndall’s ‘global emission scenarios (CO2e)’ • What are the latest CO2 emission trends? • What are implications of factoring in: - land-use & forestry? - non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions? • When will global CO2e emissions peak?

  18. What are the latest global CO2emission trends? ~ 2.7% p.a. last 100yrs ~ 3.3% p.a. in last 5 years

  19. What are the latest global CO2eemission trends? ~ 2.8% p.a. since 2000 ~ Stern assumed 0.96%

  20. 2006 2005 Trajectory of Global Fossil Fuel Emissions SRES (2000) growth rates in % y -1 for 2000-2010: A1B: 2.42 A1FI: 2.71 A1T: 1.63 A2: 2.13 B1: 1.79 B2: 1.61 Observed 2000-2006 3.3% Raupach et al. 2007, PNAS

  21. Emissions of CO2 from land-use change • Characterised by high uncertainty (principally driven by deforestation) • Represents 12%-25% of total global greenhouse gas emissions in 2000 • Two Tyndall scenarios with different carbon-stock levels remaining: 70% & 80% • Optimistic compared with Forest Resource Assessment

  22. Emissions of non-CO2 greenhouse gases • Short-term EPA estimates • Characterised by considerable tail due to emissions associated with food production • Represents ~20-23% of total global greenhouse gas emissions in 2000 • Three scenarios with different peak dates

  23. Suggested CO2e emissions peak? Bush - USA - 2025 Stern – Global aim - 2015 Tyndall - 2015, 2020, 2025

  24. 2°C • greenhouse gas emission pathways • (450ppmv CO2e)

  25. For 2°C, emissions between 2000-2100 (the carbon budget) are estimatedto be ~ 1400 to 2200 GtCO2e

  26. Total greenhouse gas emission pathways 2015 peak 2020 peak 2025 peak (Anderson & Bows. 2008 Philosophical Transactions A of the Royal Society. 366. pp.3863-3882)

  27. What does all this imply for a 450ppmvCO2e future? Unprecedented annual reductions (~10% pa globally, even for 2020 peak)

  28. 3°C & 4°C greenhouse gas emission pathways (550 & 650 ppmv CO2e)

  29. For 3°C (550ppmv CO2e) with emissions peaking by 2020: • 6% annual reductions in CO2e • 9% annual reductions in CO2 from energy • For 4°C(650ppmv CO2e) with emissions peaking by 2020: • 3% annual reductions in CO2e • 3.5% annual reductions in CO2 from energy

  30. What are the precedents for such reductions? Annual reductions of greater than 1% p.a. have only “been associated with economic recession or upheaval” Stern 2006 • UK gas & French 40x nuclear ~1% p.a. reductions (ex. aviation & shipping) • Collapse Soviet Union economy ~5% p.a. reductions

  31. So where does this leave us? Even assuming: … an unprecedented step change in mitigating emissions … stabilising at 650ppmv CO2e appears increasingly to be the best we can expect i.e. human-induced climate change of ~4°C or more

  32. Consequently … We need to urgently reframe the climate change debate: • For mitigation 2°C should remain the driver of policy • For adaptation 4°C should become the driver of policy

  33. the UK level (older work based on CO2 only - to be updated)

  34. For a reasonable chance of 2°C to 3°C the UK’s budget is ~ 17-23 GtCO2 between 2000-2050

  35. From this two questions arise • What are the emissions between 2000 & today? • What emissions are we locked into in the immediate future?

  36. Answer 1 … emissions between 2000-2006 were ~4.5 billion tonnes of CO2 … i.e. we’ve used ~¼ of our permitted emissions for 50 years in around 6 years

  37. Answer 2 Looking at this graphically …

  38. Carbon pathway

  39. Carbon pathway Dip due to September 11th Plot data from 2000 to 2006

  40. Carbon pathway What about the next 6 years … with more aviation and shipping

  41. Carbon pathway This gives a notable rise in emissions between now & 2012

  42. Carbon pathway locking nation into unprecedented annual CO2 reductions for ~2 decades, beginning 2012-14 But UK can emit only 9% p.a. 17 to 23 GtCO2 6% p.a.

  43. … and this equates, at best, to only a 50:50 chance of staying below 2°C 9% p.a. 6% p.a.

  44. What does the pathway approach say about UK emission policies ?

  45. Policy implications Most emissions over the next 15 years

  46. Policy implications demand supply & demand

  47. Does the demand-side have what’s needed?

  48. the example of domestic lighting Fuel Production, Extraction &Transport Electricity Consumption Transmission Light Powerstation 10 50 54 120 133

  49. … ultimately .. “at every level the greatest obstacle to transforming the world is that we lack the clarity and imagination to conceive that it could be different.” Roberto Unger

  50. second homes, 2 cars & 3 TVs driving children to school double door refrigerators & home cinema academics flying to climate change conferences 3 tonne 4WD car to transport 70kg flesh 3miles musicians flying to climate change concerts 1-person living in 3 bedroom houses 10 halogen bulbs lighting the kitchen patio heaters & all with 9 billion people living on our planet! hen parties in Prague & birthdays in Barcelona business tycoons with private jets ‘right’ to fly & drive when & to wherever we want celebrating the excesses of celebrities year-round strawberries

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