The EU in a Global Perspective and the Demographic Challenges associated with the “Second Demographic Transition” Ron Le

1. The EU in a Global Perspective and the Demographic Challenges associated with the “Second Demographic Transition” Ron Lesthaeghe Gastner-Newman cartogram – proportional to total population size

2. Part 1: The formal demographic core. The 2 mechanisms of ageing. Population growth (shrink) momentum. Replacement migration.

3. Survivors per 100 000 births with varying life expectancies at birth : From a “neutral” mortality decline to squaring off and pure aging effect

4. The stationary population view: from a neutral mortality decline to pure aging

5. Stable population age structures with constant e0= 80 years, but varying total fertility rates. (1.58 to 2.20) TFR

6. The Negative Growth Momentum In closed populations that have grown very old as a result of sustained sub-replacement fertility, there will be a CONTINUED shrinkage for 50 years AFTER the restoration of exact replacement fertility

7. Aging bulge: unavoidable After a long period of subreplacement fertility, there is an unavoidable aging bulge even if fertility returns to replacement level

8. The “Second Demographic Transition” view • Primary determinants of below replacement fertility: • Economic : Elevated standard of living & high consumption aspirations, need for double income, high opportunity cost  globalization world economy. • Cultural : Higher order needs accentuated (self-actualization, expressive values, individual autonomy, freedom of choice, open future,”postmaterialist” political aspirations …)(cf. Maslow’s hierarchy of needs) • TOGETHER  Second Demographic Transition (SDT) • Demographic characteristics of the SDT: • Postponement of marriage and parenthood, use of efficient contraception. • But : varying degrees of catching up of fertility at later ages (main source of difference between TFRs above and below 1.5) • Hence structural, not temporary, sub-replacement fertility, but at varying levels ! • Rise of alternative living arrangements : longer periods living with parents, living alone, in cohabitation, procreation within cohabitation, post-marital cohabitation, LAT relations, etc. • Caveat : Intermediate phase between First DT and Second DT : Sexual revolution, but no transition to efficient contraception = recipe for high teenage fertility, shotgun marriage, young age divorce, early single motherhood, compromised life chances. US is typical example. One of the main reasons for US TFR being = 2.0.Also major danger for 1st generation immigrant youths from non-patriarchal societies.

9. The Fertility Story • Careful with period measures !! • Postponement & Recuperation in Cohort Fertility • The Spanish Cohorts

10. a positive association between SDT and period total fertility : classic case of split correlation All stronger recuperation countries No or weak recup & late starters 1.50 Source of plot : Tomas Sobotka, 2008. Interpretation : Ron Lesthaeghe 2008.

11. A strong SDT – fertility postponement link SDT tail SDT vanguard Source: T. Sobotka 2008.

12. TROUGH RECUP PTFR(t+30) = A + B1*BaseCTFR(t=0) + B2*TROUGH(t) + B3*RECUP(t) + e Trough = deficit in cumulated CASFR at age 30 compared to base Recup = part of trough recuperated by age 40 Sample= all never communist European countries, baseline = cohort born 1940-44, predicting PTFRs in period 1960-2005. RESULT : baseCTFR only Rsq. = .505, baseCTFR + Trough Rsq= .673, all 3 including Recup then Rsq= .793. Hence : RECUP IS ESSENTIAL. ONLY countries dip below a TFR below 1.5 that have no or weak recuperation. The “Bongaarts’ babies” have remained in his cupboard in a large number of countries, and will stay there for as long as there is no recuperation of fertility after age 30.

13. Cohort Fertility Postponement & Recuperation, Spain. (benchmarks coh40, coh55)

14. SDT and TFRs : inconsistent or double effect ? Social & Economic constraints: longer education, deregulation labour market etc + _ Postponement Self-actualisation, keeping open future. Overall fertility SDT Emancipation: gender equity & better division of labour in family. + Recuperation + Organisation & policy aspects re independence of young adults and reduction opportunity costs (child care facilities, schooling, allowances & benefits), housing opportunities.

15. FAC1_1: SDT – Postponement of Marriage, Parenthood and Overall Fertility, 1995-2001

16. FAC5_1: SDT – Non-conformist Family Formation (Cohabitation, out-of wedlock fertility, single parent household, abortion), 1995-2002

17. The Migration Issue Results of a simulation excercise for the EU-12, 1995 to 2060

18. Population 65+ in EU 15 in 3 Scenarios Scenario with constant dependency ratio leads to irrealistic growth and growth waves. xxxxx Note : UN assumes instantaneous drop immigrant fertility level to that of host country – too strong ! UN Population Divn.

19. EU-12 Female Pop. EU-12 aging if e0=80 and TFR=1.64. 1985 =>2060 15 9 3 0 Migrant extra female population. growth of immigrant population EU-12 , stock in 1985 + Descendants+ 400 000 newcomers p.a., fertility drops from 4 to 1.64 in 2010 3 2 1

20. Disaggregated projection for EU12 women, 1985-2060 Foreign stock of 1985 ( old survivors) and all foreign born after 1.1.85 Descendents of foreign mothers but born in EC12 after 1.1.85 EU12 nationals + descendants SCENARIO: everyone e0=80; immigration=400.000 pa.;TFR nationals=1.64, TFR immigrants drops from 4.0 to 1.64 by 2010

21. Source : D. Coleman

24. Religious composition of the population, example of Spain Age & Religion Composition, IIASA projections for Spain. 2009, 2019, 2029. Source : Katja Sherbov, Dec 2010 Dark blue: active Catholic Light blue : Non-active Cath. Green: Islam-Sunni Black: Islam-Sharia Purple: Protestant + other Red : Agnostic (Read outward)

25. Long term SDT – views : • Sustained below-replacement fertility, caused by postponement and very little progression beyond 2 children. Rise childlessness among couples. • But very different TFR levels (say from 1.0 to 2.0), depending on degree of fertility recuperation at later ages (30+) • Negative population growth momentum set in motion : population becomes so old that decline will not stop when TFR reaches replacement again. Decline continues for another 50 years. Unavoidable major aging bulge too. • Need for replacement immigration, but mainly useful for maintaining absolute sizes of total population or of total active population. Less useful for reducing aging ( but not useless !) • Replacement migration = family migration or family reunification, not just temporary guest workers. • But once TFRs remain below 1.5 : no adequate solutions anymore. • Hence strong connection between SDT and international migration. • And also : SDT leads to multi-cultural, multi-ethnic and multi-lingual societies, which can have very different degrees or patterns of integration. • SDT = no convenient equilibrium !

26. Part 2. Various measures compared • BUT !!! • ONLY the DENOMINATOR CONSIDERED HERE, I.E. THE ECONOMICALLY ACTIVE POPULATION • NOT THE NUMERATOR: DEPENDENT PENSIONERS. • 3 MEASURES COMPARED • Increase in fertility • Increase in Labour Force participation rates ( activity rates) • Increase in immigration

27. MacDonald-Kippen Total Labour Force Projection Scenarios • Effect of TFRs returning to 1.80 children in next 15 yrs ( starting +- in 2000) • Effect of Rises in Labour Force Participation rates : Males : after age 30 rising to levels of 1970; Females : rising to Swedish levels at all ages ; change over next 30 yrs. • Effect of Increasing Net Migration to 0.5 pct of Total Pop. Size : D=200.000pa =>408.000, F & UK= 35.000 => 290.000, US= 760.000 => 1.369.000 pa.

28. BAU= Business as usual BAU

29. Optimistic Combination LF partic to high levels MIGR = 0.5% pa TFR to 1.8 BAU ALL CURRENT TFR, MIGR, LF Particip. CURRENT TFR, LF particip, NO MIGR

30. BAU

31. BAU

32. Homework for entire EU • Favor gender symmetry in housework & earnings; • Maintain & increase female employment rates, but reduce opportunity costs (child-care !!!) • Do not reduce immigration, but try to manage it with respect to education and favorable adjustment characteristics. • Increase labor force participation rates, esp. after age 55.

33. Can the SDT spread to non-western populations ? • Overall answer : spread of SDT already occurring in other societies, but not necessarily according to a western sequence. • Lowest-Low fertility in Japan, S. Korea, Singapore, Hong Kong, now also caused by massive postponement.. • Sub-replacement fertility in Caribbean area (from Cuba to Trinidad ), in 2 Indian states and several Indian metropolitan areas, and even in several Muslim populations (Tunisia, Iran). Sub-replacement fertility widespread in most Chinese provinces. • Take off of premarital cohabitation documented in Japan and Taiwan. “Cohabitation boom” in Latin America. • In Japan, Korea, Singapore : postponement of parenthood equally linked toexpressive and individualistic value orientations at the micro level ( but not or less strongly to religion/secularism). • But : many of these societies have no experience with multi-culturalism (e.g Japan, S. Korea versus Singapore)

34. Future of migration as seen through the SDT perspective.* Migration will continue to gain importance.* Many populations still have high TFRs, and large countries such as India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Philippines, Indonesia, Mexico …will still produce a positive population growth momentum for several decades to come.* Several African populations ( lower on AIDS) have very high fertility and are also exhibiting a major growth momentum.* No shortage of areas with high population pressure in the next half century, but older and more typical recruitment areas may have reduced capacities for sending migrants. * Hence : geographical/cultural shifts are likely with respect to areas of origin.* Caveat : migrations can also occur even if sending country has very low fertility ( e.g. Polish, Eastern European migration to EU).

35. Conclusions • No way to stop ageing via replacement migration alone : numbers completely irrealistic (unless “deportation”) • Replacement migration is only a partial measure which works best if immigrants are in families, sex-balanced, with fertility at or above replacement level. Single sex labour migration is not demographically sound. • Replacement migration leads to “multicultural” societies, but it takes several generations to get to a decisive shift with respect to “ancestral origins”. Question : are the third and fourth generations “integrated”? • Short term imperatives for D,NL,B : increase labour force participation after age 50 ! • Overall : increase productivity via technological innovation and sound capital investment. And reduce public debt !!

36. Health care expenditure

37. Greenhouse gases emissions.

38. Child mortality

39. IS THERE ENOUGH TO GO AROUND ? In millions, UN Medium projections, 2006 revisions. Total Pop 2005 2050 Increase Europe ( incl Eur. Russia) 731.1 664.1 - 67.0 Turkey 73.0 98.9 +25.9 Philippines 84.6 140.5 +55.9 Bangladesh 135.2 254.1 +118.9 India 1134.4 1658.3 +523.9 Pakistan 158.1 292.2 +134.1 Indian subcontinent +776.9 PR China 1313.0 1408.8 +95.8

41. Can the SDT spread to non-western populations ? • Overall answer : spread of SDT already occurring in other societies, but not necessarily according to a western sequence. • Lowest-Low fertility in Japan, S. Korea, Singapore, Hong Kong, now also caused by massive postponement.. • Sub-replacement fertility in Caribbean area (from Cuba to Trinidad ), in 2 Indian states and several Indian metropolitan areas, and even in several Muslim populations (Tunisia, Iran). Sub-replacement fertility widespread in most Chinese provinces. • Take off of premarital cohabitation documented in Japan and Taiwan. • In Japan, Korea, Singapore : postponement of parenthood equally linked toexpressive and individualistic value orientations at the micro level ( but not or less strongly to religion/secularism). • But : many of these societies have no experience with multi-culturalism (e.g Japan, S. Korea versus Singapore)

43. Postponement + stronger recuperation Less postponement but quantum drop Postponmt + weak or no recuperation