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Improving GFDL/URI Coupled Hurricane-Ocean Model for Transition to Operations

This study focuses on the improvements made to the GFDL/URI coupled hurricane-ocean model, including new ocean model domain configurations, Gulf Stream and Loop Current data assimilation, and ocean coupling over entire ocean domains. The model has been implemented in near-real-time testing and has shown promising results in forecasting hurricanes. Ongoing efforts are being made to further improve the model, such as resolving the hurricane core region in major hurricanes and developing a high-resolution version of the coupled model.

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Improving GFDL/URI Coupled Hurricane-Ocean Model for Transition to Operations

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  1. Improving the GFDL/URI Coupled Hurricane-Ocean Model for Transition to Operations Isaac Ginis University of Rhode Island B. Thomas, URI I-J. Moon, URI A. Falkovich, NCEP M. Bender, GFDL Support is provided by JHT/USWRP

  2. Implemented to operations at NCEP in 2001 after three years of near-real time testing in 1998-2000 Improvements implemented in 2003: New ocean model domain configurations Ocean coupling over entire ocean domains Gulf Stream and Loop Current data assimilation GFDL/URI Coupled Model

  3. Examples of the Coupled Model ForecastsHurricane Isabel Initial Time: 00 UTC 15 Sept, 2003 Sea Surface Currents Sea Surface Temperature

  4. Ocean coupling in the Eastern Pacific basin High resolution version of the GFDL model Air-sea flux parameterization Coupled hurricane-wave-ocean system Ongoing Efforts Toward Future Improvements

  5. Hurricane IGNACIO 22-27 AUG, 2003

  6. Hurricane Ignacio GFDL Model Forecast (12Z 24 AUG, 2003) Red - Operational Green - Coupled Black - Observed

  7. Goal: To better resolve the hurricane core region, especially in major hurricanes Grid configuration: 1/2o (stationary); 1/6o and 1/12o (movable) High-resolution Version of the GFDL/URI Coupled Model

  8. Hurricane Isabel, Sept 8 12Z, 2003 High resolution GFDL model Operational GFDL model

  9. 3-Nest 2-Nest

  10. Hurricane Isabel (2003) kts High Res GFDL SHIPS

  11. Air-Sea Fluxes in High Wind Conditions Behavior of Cd and Ch in the GFDL model ? Cd Ch Wind Speed (m/s)

  12. Idealized Sensitivity Experiments

  13. New Coupled Wind-Wave Model young waves mature waves

  14. WW3 CWW

  15. Wave Field in a Hurricane

  16. Operational GFDL Model Future Coupled Hurricane-Wave-Ocean Model Atmosphere Atmosphere GFDL Hurricane Model GFDL(WRF) Hurricane Model Wind & Air Temp. Flux Wind & Air Temp. Flux SST Wave Boundary Model SST SST & Current Wave Spectra Flux Flux Currents, NCEP WAVEWATCH III POM (HYCOM) POM Elevations, & SST Ocean Ocean Waves

  17. Plans for Operational Implemantion • Ocean coupling in the Eastern Pacific is planned for operational implementation in 2004 • The high resolution GFDL coupled model will be tested in near real-time in 2004 is planned for operational implementation in 2005 • The coupled GFDL hurricane-wave-ocean model is being developed

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