1 / 15

THE FUTURE SIZE AND SHAPE OF UK HIGHER EDUCATION

THE FUTURE SIZE AND SHAPE OF UK HIGHER EDUCATION. THREATS AND OPPORTUNITIES PESENTATION BY NIGEL BROWN, NIGEL BROWN ASSOCIATES 14 OCTOBER 2008. PHASE 2 OF THE STUDY. The Impact of demographic change in different student markets Demography is not enough

greta
Download Presentation

THE FUTURE SIZE AND SHAPE OF UK HIGHER EDUCATION

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. THE FUTURE SIZE AND SHAPE OF UK HIGHER EDUCATION THREATS AND OPPORTUNITIES PESENTATION BY NIGEL BROWN, NIGEL BROWN ASSOCIATES 14 OCTOBER 2008

  2. PHASE 2 OF THE STUDY • The Impact of demographic change in different student markets • Demography is not enough • Scenario planning and key uncertainties • Scenarios • Opportunities • Threats • Final thoughts (with limited hindsight)

  3. IMPACT OF DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE IN DIFFERENT STUDENT MARKETS • Full-time undergraduates • 73% entrants aged 17-21 • Over 71% of total fte of HE • Very high proportion of total public funding for HE • Potentially significant impact on demand • Part-time undergraduates • Majority aged 30+ • Around 10% of total fte • Public funding largely confined to funding council grants • Modestly positive impact on demand • Full-time and part-time postgraduate • Varied age profile – some full-time entrants straight from graduation • 19% of total fte of HE • Public funding limited except for those supported by research Councils • Uncertain impact on demand • International (non-EU students)

  4. DEMOGRAPHY IS NOT SUFFICIENT • Past experience of the impact of demographic change • Demography more uncertain than in the past because of the impact of migration • Other factors – especially changes in the socioeconomic mix of the young population also impact on demand • Other uncertainties

  5. Scenario Planning • Scenario planning is not forecasting the future • It is about providing a framework for considering the key threats and opportunities identifying in an uncertain world • Three stage process: • Identifying major drivers for change • Facilitated development of a small number of different scenarios based on key uncertainties • Drawing out the threats and opportunities

  6. Major Drivers for Change in Higher Education Over the Next Twenty Years • Funding for individuals and institutions – economic conditions and competition for public and private (individual and employer)funds • Increased competition from providers outside the UK higher education sector – overseas universities, FE colleges, private providers with capital to invest • Changing labour market demands as the nature of employment changes, brokered perhaps through increased employer engagement

  7. Scenario Planning: Identified Drivers for Change • Level of economic growth • Public funding of HE • Cost pressures on Institutions • Quality of provision • Changes in pre-18 education and training • Student and employer demand • Changing aspirations • Internationalisation • Impact of technology on learning • Levels of flexibility • The nature of the HE workforce and HR management in the sector • Future of the HEIs as we have known them • Divergence of the four UK systems

  8. Scenario 1: “Slow Adaptation to Change” • Essentially assumes that demand changes in line with the demographic projection (no new sources of demand emerge) and total funding on average falls as numbers fall • Institutions will respond by seeking to increase their share of the total numbers – increased competition • Some retrenchment will occur, leading to possible reductions in quality and to mergers as institutions seek to keep their costs in line with income

  9. Scenario 2 – “Market driven and competitive” • Increased competition for students and funding in all student markets both between traditional HEIs and with new providers • Driven by this competition the shape of the sector changes very significantly with a smaller number than now of large institutions and a much larger number of small niche providers, including a wide range of private providers • Increased competition with employers for 18 year olds with Level 3 qualifications

  10. Scenario 3 “Employer driven flexible learning” • Driven by the full flowering of technological based learning, the development of a full credit accumulation and transfer system and reductions in public and individual funding, a much higher proportion of students than now study part-time and on a virtual basis while they are working • The distinction between part-time and full-time study for financial support purposes has been abolished • Co-funding by funding councils and employers is the mainstream funding route • A much greater stratification of the sector than now

  11. Opportunities • Expansion of activities where you have a strong market position • Identification and exploitation of new markets • Increased engagement with schools • Further development of partnerships with non-traditional providers covering investment and delivery • Increased collaboration between universities in expensive, difficult to recruit areas • Increased engagement with employers

  12. Threats • Loss of financial sustainability in the face of decreased public and/or private investment and increased costs. Successful risk management becomes increasingly challenging • Increased public regulation • Increased external competition in all student markets (including from employers for able 18 year olds) • Lack of investment in technology based learning • Increased global competition for academic staff as ‘baby boomers’ retire • Loss of reputation of the UK higher education system

  13. Size of the HE sector (000s) in 2026 on different scenarios

  14. Future Shape of the Sector • All three Scenarios suggest significant change in the shape of the sector over the next twenty years • Fewer large, multi-purpose institutions than now • Increased partnership and collaborative working with a wider range of partners than currently • More small specialist providers operating in niche markets • Such institutional change may require increased intervention by the funding bodies as in Wales now

  15. Some final thoughts • Work on these scenarios took place nearly a year ago • The economic climate is much more difficult than it was then. The current economic crisis seems less and less likely to be merely a blip on the path of economic growth. It will have global repercussions for higher education • Despite the apparent Political consensus on the importance of higher education we almost certainly underestimated the potential impact of economic decline and political change • The scenarios may be overly benign but that does not limit their value as a means of identifying potentially major threats and we had the advantage of being able to use two widely different demographic projections to underpin our work

More Related