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BSPS Annual Conference 2008 Stream: Local Authority, Census and Planning

BSPS Annual Conference 2008 Stream: Local Authority, Census and Planning. Housing Tenure Change in Scotland A comparison between 1991-2001 and 2001-2006. Jan Freeke Glasgow City Council. Housing tenure change in Scotland. Reason for Interest:

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BSPS Annual Conference 2008 Stream: Local Authority, Census and Planning

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  1. BSPS Annual Conference 2008Stream: Local Authority, Census and Planning Housing Tenure Change in ScotlandA comparison between 1991-2001 and 2001-2006 Jan Freeke Glasgow City Council

  2. Housing tenure change in Scotland Reason for Interest: Application of cohort component method to forecast social rented housing demand in Glasgow showed significant differences between rates of change before and after 2001. Therefore a need to investigate housing tenure change in Scotland.

  3. Cohort Component Method

  4. Housing tenure change in Scotland Two central questions: • How different are the rates of change before and after 2001? • What are the components of this change? Data Sources: • 1991 Census and 2001 Census for changes 1991-2001 Scottish Household Survey for changes 2001-2006 • Scottish Longitudinal Study for components of change 1991-2001 This presentation: focus on social rented sector in Scotland Three aspects: • Changes in population by age • Changes in population (age 16-74) by economic status • Changes in households by type

  5. Housing tenure change in Scotland Conclusions: • Decline in social rented housing is only partly due to tenure shift Decline is also influenced by natural change (age cohorts) and migration • Most important differences 2001-2006 as compared with 1991-2001: • Reduced annual loss for younger people • Reduced annual reduction for employed people • Reduced annual reduction for larger households • There are indications that some of these changes are due to factors other than tenure shift

  6. Housing tenure change in Scotland Methodological Comments: • Tenure change tends to be measured in terms of households by tenure. It would be beneficial to also measure change in terms of population, and their characteristics. • Scottish Longitudinal Study data allow changes to be broken down by component, which contributes to a better understanding of recent tenure change. • A better understanding of recent tenure change will assist in the projection of future tenure change, both in terms of numbers and composition of households and population by tenure.

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