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Oil Supply

Oil Supply. Role of Oil Oil as a finite resource M. King Hubbert Hubbert’s method of prediction References. Role of Oil. World Population Growth, 1750–2150 (Population in billions). Critical commodity in industrialized countries Transportation Heating Fertilizer Synthetic materials

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Oil Supply

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  1. Oil Supply • Role of Oil • Oil as a finite resource • M. King Hubbert • Hubbert’s method of prediction • References

  2. Role of Oil World Population Growth, 1750–2150 (Population in billions) • Critical commodity in industrialized countries • Transportation • Heating • Fertilizer • Synthetic materials • Explosive growth in world population roughly coincides with the start of large-scale oil production 10 8 6 4 2 0 2100 1800 1900 1950 2000 2050 2150 1750 1850 Source: http://www.prb.org

  3. Oil as a finite resource • Oil judged to be a product of organic material • Explosive proliferation of biologic activity at start of Cambrian Period (~600 m.y.) • Consumption rate >> Generation rate (Generation rate is negligible) • Oil resources are effectively finite

  4. M. King Hubbert (1903-1989) • Towering 20th-century Earth Scientist • Vetlesen Prize, 1981 • Probably the best-known geophysicist in the world to the general public • Seminal contributions in three areas • Mechanics of geologic structures • Physics of underground fluids • Earth's mineral resources and their significance in human affairs

  5. Hubbert’s Method • Assumes recovery rate curve increases from zero, peaks, and declines to zero as resource is exhausted • Curve assumed to be bell-shaped and symmetric • Curve can be fit to data • Curve can be extrapolated into the future • Recovery equals area under curve Rate Time

  6. Production Rate (r) as a Function of Three Variables r = A Rate (r) A = peak value of r T = time where r = A S = T- t where r = A/e ≈ 0.37A r, (T-S) also is an inflection pt r = A/e S t = T Time (t)

  7. Minimizing a Function of Three Variables Find the values of A, T, and S to minimize r

  8. References on M. King Hubbert • http://www.technocracyinc.org/webtv/articles/hub-gro.htm • http://www.hubbertpeak.com/hubbert/hubecon.htm • http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hubbert_curve • http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hubbert_peak • http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M._King_Hubbert • http://www.hubbertpeak.com/hubbert/tribute.htm • Clark, Robert Dean, Geophysics: The Leading Edge of Exploration, "King Hubbert", February 1983. pp.16-24

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