Call to Action Progress and Issues

1. Call to ActionProgress and Issues Lewis E (Ed) Link, PhD Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering University of Maryland

2. Early Flood Risk Management

3. Historical Approach Living with Floods Current Practice Flood Control Deterministic Extrapolation Flood Risk Management Emerging Approaches Risk-Informed Extrapolation Risk Reduction (+ community resilience) Long Term goals

5. Corps of Engineers Water Resources Infrastructure: Deterioration, Investment or DivestmentNRC, 2012 • “Funding streams in the U S federal budget over the past 20 years consistently have been inadequate to maintain all of the infrastructure at acceptable levels of performance and efficiency.” • “WRDA was developed when new water project construction was at a high point, it was not designed to deal with OMR issues and priorities.”

8. Hurricane Hazard 500-year peak surge 100-year peak surge

10. Missouri River Basin - Annual Runoff above Sioux City, Iowa 1 Maf = 1233 Mm3 .2% .2%/97 1% 1881 Flood = Design Criteria 1%/97

11. The Project Design Flood consists of 3 historical rainfall events • One of the main premises for the PDF rainfall events was that the combination of events had to be considered plausible from a meteorological viewpoint and that they had to have a reasonable probability of occurrence. • The three rainfall events determined for the PDF consisted of the: • 6-24 January 1937 storm (top left) over all areas with the rainfall excess increased by ten percent • Followed four days later by the 3-16 January 1950 storm (top right) • Three days later by the 14-18 February 1938 storm (bottom) transposed 90 miles northward and rotated 20º.

12. Total PDF Precipitation Observed Apr 19-May 4 2011 Precipitation • Comparison between the Project Design Flood (PDF) Precipitation events and the observed 2011 precipitation event.: • The PDF occurred in 3 events. • The axis of maximum precipitation for the PDF was along and south of the Ohio River. • Maximum rainfall totals for PDF were 24-32” over KY and along the Ohio River • The 2011 precipitation event occurred during 2 events 4/19-4/28 and 5/1-5/4. • The axis of maximum precipitation for the 2011 event was along and just north of the Ohio River in unregulated areas. • Maximum rainfall totals for 2011 event were 12-24” along and just north of the Ohio River. • It should be noted that stages at Cairo were elevated (+10ft or 127% of normal) at the onset of the 2011 rainfall event due to heavy rains in late Feb/early Mar that produced a crest of 53.41’ on 3/18.

14. Floodways and Backwater Areas 2011 Flood (of Record) Hazard 69% PDF Rainfall ~ 500,000 cfs snowmelt = 80% of PDF discharge System 55% Spillway capacity 20 % Backwater storage !00% channel Improvements Consequences Repair of structures Restoration of floodways Probabilities?????

17. 1900 1960 2010

18. RISK • Acceptable Risk Policy • (Consider three views): • Personal Risk (equity) • Societal Risk (efficiency) • Cost Benefit Analysis • Group Risk • Policy factors

25. Infrastructure ResilienceFatalities - Orleans Parish (Model)

26. Value of Infrastructure Resilience, HSDRRS 20 % 25 % Sample Data, USACE

27. Journey

28. Philosophy In times of change, learners inherit the Earth, while the learned find themselves beautifully equipped to deal with a world that no longer exists. Eric Hoffer • “You’re going to have to wait (on probabilistic approaches) until the current generation dies off.” • Prof. Ron Hirschfeld, MIT, 1972