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Perspectivas del mercado mundial de agroalimentos Buenos Aires, Argentina OECD Gregoire Tallard

Perspectivas del mercado mundial de agroalimentos Buenos Aires, Argentina OECD Gregoire Tallard. The OECD provides:. Economic analysis with a policy focus Information on countries’ experience A forum for policy discussion and coordination. A global outreach. OECD Member Countries.

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Perspectivas del mercado mundial de agroalimentos Buenos Aires, Argentina OECD Gregoire Tallard

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  1. Perspectivas del mercado mundial de agroalimentos Buenos Aires, ArgentinaOECDGregoire Tallard

  2. The OECD provides: Economic analysis with a policy focus Information on countries’ experience A forum for policy discussion and coordination

  3. A global outreach OECD Member Countries Countries/Economies Engaged in Working Relationships with the OECD

  4. OECD Work on Food and Agriculture Providing economic and policy information and advice that supports government efforts to improve the domestic and international performance of their policies http://www.oecd.org/agr/

  5. Current market situation • Record harvests 2004/05 in grains, oilseeds resulted in price reductions • Lower sugar stocks despite larger 2004/05 harvests lead to higher prices • Bad weather in major exporting regions pushed up dairy prices • Animal diseases continue to disrupt meat trade Issues Outlook Assumptions Situation

  6. Agricultural World Market Context: The Evolving Economic Environment • Changing consumer demand • Growing civil society voice • Changing market structures • Increasing globalisation • Shifting competition focus • Growing role of standards Issues Issues Outlook Outlook Assumptions Assumptions Situation Situation

  7. Main assumptions- macroeconomic - • Rapid global expansion slowed by oil prices in 2004 • Sustained, broad-based growth in the medium to longer term • US dollar to remain strong relative to most Latin American currencies • Inflation to remain relatively low • Slowing population growth Issues Outlook Assumptions Situation

  8. Main assumptions- unchanged policies - • Provisions of US 2002 FSRI Act to continue • EU 2003 CAP reform and EBA • Enlarged EU of 25 countries • URAA commitments to continue • No new WTO agreement • No new WTO accessions • Existing regional agreements (NAFTA, MERCOSUR) Issues Outlook Assumptions Situation

  9. OECD-FAO Outlook 2005-14:Main trends • Increasing competition in world markets • Population, income growth stimulate consumption and imports in developing countries • … and South-South trade • Renewed export subsidy use in EU (weak USD) Issues Outlook Assumptions Situation

  10. OECD-FAO Outlook 2005-14:Main trends • Meat, sugar, cotton, oilseeds from South America • Continued productivity growth in agriculture • Downward pressure continues on real commodity prices • Changes in food chain affect trade Issues Outlook Assumptions Situation

  11. Production growth in developing countries outpaces OECD Issues Outlook Assumptions Situation

  12. Consumption growth in developing countries outpaces OECD Issues Outlook Assumptions Situation

  13. Brazil and Argentina become leading oilseed exporters1996 vs. 2005 vs. 2014 Issues Outlook Assumptions Situation

  14. OECD countries continue to dominate coarse grain exports1996 vs. 2005 vs. 2014 Issues Outlook Assumptions Situation

  15. Growth in coarse grain imports concentrated outside OECD1996 vs. 2005vs. 2014 Issues Outlook Assumptions Situation

  16. Growing Competition in Meat and Grains Net Trade Markets Issues Outlook Assumptions Situation

  17. Market trends and developments- world prices - Rice prices to increase more significantly than wheat and maize Issues Outlook Assumptions Situation

  18. Market trends and developments- world prices - Nominal oilseed prices increase, but real prices flat or declining Issues Outlook Assumptions Situation

  19. Market trends and developments- world prices - Meat prices to decline from their relatively high 2004 levels Issues Outlook Assumptions Situation

  20. Market trends and developments- world prices - Dairy prices remain stable after dropping from their 2004 peaks Issues Outlook Assumptions Situation

  21. World prices remain low in real terms Issues Outlook Assumptions Situation

  22. Some issues and uncertainties (1) • Trade affected by changing diets • Share of cereal imports declines as imports of higher-value products increase • Increased importance of non-OECD exporters • South-south trade flows dominate in rice, vegetable oil, sugar Issues Outlook Assumptions Situation

  23. Some issues and uncertainties (2) • Numbers that are likely to be wrong: Issues CEREALS • China’s imports • How much will they allow? OILSEEDS • China’s demand • How much is enough? Outlook Assumptions MEAT • BSE • related import bans affects beef trade Situation

  24. China’s grain imports??? Issues Outlook Assumptions Situation

  25. China’s oilseed needs??? Issues Outlook Assumptions Situation

  26. How will BSE affect trade in Canada and USA ???? Issues Outlook Assumptions Situation

  27. Risks:What is not in the numbers • Biofuels • Embedded in the outlook but independent of oil price or of policy incentives • Accession beyond EU 25 • Bulgaria and Romania • Macroeconomic factors & yields • Trend growth rate and normal weather are never observed Issues Outlook Assumptions Situation

  28. What are we doing • We do not produce “predictions” • We do “projections” by bringing together experts knowledge of Member countries to develop a consensual baseline

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