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Chinese Coal & US-China Coal Trade. Kevin Jianjun Tu, Senior Associate Carnegie Endowment for International Peace The Energy Bar Association & Asian Americans in Energy, the Environment, and Commerce Washington DC May 13th, 2013. Drivers Underlying Global Energy Trend.
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Chinese Coal & US-China Coal Trade Kevin Jianjun Tu, Senior Associate Carnegie Endowment for International Peace The Energy Bar Association & Asian Americans in Energy, the Environment, and Commerce Washington DC May 13th, 2013
Drivers Underlying Global Energy Trend China/U.S. in 2011 0.7% 8.4% 5.2% 23% 30% 70% 27% 24% 4.0% 37% 34% 18% Source: BP World Statistical Review 2012, NBS, U.S. Census Bureau.
China: a Hybrid Economy at Crossroad Source: World Bank, IEA, own estimation
Concern of Energy Security Source: China Customs.
Dependency on Foreign Oil: China vs. US CNOOCUnocal (2005) China U.S. CNOOCNexen (2012) Source: NBS, US EIA.
Environmental Constraints Gt of CO2 Emissions 64% 64% 68% 13% 17% 22% 24% 19% 10% Source: US EIA, NBS, ERI, IEA, own estimation.
Chinese Coal Value Chain • Coal Production • Coal Transport • Coal Use • Coal Resources • 46% of global total • 80% global fatalities in early 2000s • Half by key SOEs, 1/3 by private mines • Half by ultra-small mines in 1995 -> minimal • 47%of global total • half Chinese coal used for power generation, 9% for iron & steel, 7% for non-metal minerals, 5% for coal chemicals • National coal consumption cap • 48% of national coal output was shipped by rail • 36% by major coastal ports • 15% by inland • Integrated railway + coastal marine transport • Bottlenecks • 2nd largest coal reserves behind U.S. • Distribution of coal resources • Lack of coking coal • Quality deterioration of thermal coal
Chinese Coal Imports/Exports Coal Exports Peaked in 2003 • Global coal trade is about one third of China’s domestic coal market. • China became a net coal importer in 2009. • China passed Japan as the world’s largest coal importer in 2011. • China’s coal imports in 2012 up 58%, reaching 289Mt. China encouraged coal exports Source: NBS and China Customs.
China’s Coal Imports by Country Mt Source: China Customs.
At least 6 coal export facilities proposed along the West Coast with aggregate capacity at >120 Mt/annum
Sources of China’s Gas Supply • Can conventional fields deliver as expected? • Problem with CBM development. • Is coal-to-gas compatible with China’s conservation goals? • Can shale gas be kicked off? • Can pipeline gas deal with Russia overcome pricing dispute? • Is U.S. a potential LNG supplier? bcm Source: Energy Review.
