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LTSA Load Distribution Methodology 2014

This document outlines the purpose, background, current trends, and future scenarios for load distribution in the LTSA. It includes information on county-specific growth rates and distribution factors for different scenarios.

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LTSA Load Distribution Methodology 2014

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  1. 2014 LTSA Load Distribution Methodology June 17, 2014

  2. Outline • Purpose • Background • Current Trends • Other scenarios • Next steps

  3. Purpose • To reflect differences in how load is distributed from scenario to scenario • Need to project trends into future years • Presentation by the Texas State Demographer at LTSTF Scenario Workshop #1 stated that higher growth rates are expected along the I-35 corridor, especially in the “ring counties”

  4. Projected percent population change 2010-2030

  5. Background • Scenario-specific load forecasts are provided by weather zone • The load growth for counties within their respective weather zones are expected to vary between scenarios • This variation can be modeled by using scenario-specific county level growth rates to adjust distribution factors

  6. Current Trends • County load growth in the SSWG DSB cases was used as means to capture load growth in current trends • Compound annual growth rate (CAGR) values were calculated for each county using the 2015 and 2020 SSWG DSB cases posted on March 3, 2014 • The loads from the final 2018 case from the 2013 RTP were grown to 2024 and 2029 levels using county CAGR values • Distribution factors were calculated for 2024 and 2029 by normalizing each load value relative to the total load for its weather zone • Self-served loads were not changed

  7. Other scenarios • High economic growth: • Accelerated growth rates • Increased activity in dry gas basins • Stringent environmental: • Growth rates stay close to current trends • Dampened growth in oil and gas activity • County specific load distribution can be modeled by adjusting CAGR values for specific counties • Oil and gas counties can be identified based on oil and gas well count growth rates

  8. Next steps • Update distribution factors to be used for Current Trends, Stringent Environmental, and High Economic Growth scenarios • Update distribution factors to be used in UPLAN for generation siting • Update distribution factors to be used in PowerWorld for reliability analysis

  9. Questions

  10. Appendix: Input load assumptions excerpt from scenarios

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