Challenges of the 21st Century: Energy, Global Warming & Beyond

1. Energy, Global Warming, & the Challenges of the 21st Century • Richard W. Allmendinger • (revised by Jason Phipps Morgan) • Earth & Atmospheric Sciences • Cornell University

2. Projected Population Growth constant fertility medium fertility low fertility source: United Nations (2004)

3. World Population Growth Since Zero AD historical population growth source: United Nations (2004)

4. ~60% increase in 25 years! World Energy Consumption Coal Hydro Nuclear Natural Gas Oil 1980 2005 BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2006

5. Consumption Patterns by Region, 2005 coal China coal consumption hydro nuclear natural gas oil North America S. & Cent America Europe & Eurasia Middle East Asia Pacific Africa BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2006

6. Fossil Fuels Consumption Canada – 9.8 US – 7.8 Germany – 3.9 tonnes of oil equivalent 0 – 1.5 1.5 – 3 3 – 4.5 4.5 – 6 > 6 per capita BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2006

7. Fossil Fuels: Reserves to Production Ratio, 2005 500 400 150-250 yrs 300 Years of Known Reserve Remaining 200 65-72 yrs 32-40 yrs 100 0 Former Soviet Union OECD EMEs World oil gas coal BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2006

8. US Discovery & Production of Regular, Conventional Oil

9. US Discovery & Production of Regular, Conventional Oil Alaska

10. US Production of Regular, Conventional Oil – Prediction vs. Reality

11. 1956 Hubbert’s World Production Prediction

12. Discovery & Production of Regular, Conventional Oil http://www.peakoil.ie/

13. 1956 Hubbert Peak Oil Curve – Updated Prediction Saudi 1973 Reduction

14. Historical Oil Peaks by Country non-OPEC/FSU

15. Pessimistic: ASPO http://www.peakoil.ie/

16. Optimistic Projection: IEA http://www.iea.org/textbase/nppdf/free/2004/weo2004.pdf

17. Which do you believe? Bottom Line: Peak oil & gas between 2010 and 2030

18. 1956 Hubbert Peak Coal Curve

19. North American Coal Reserves

20. Air Pollution in China http://oceancolor.gsfc.nasa.gov/SeaWiFS/TEACHERS/ATMOSPHERE/ChinaPollution.html

21. Non-traditional Hydrocarbons: Gas Hydrates http://www.neptune.washington.edu/research/index.jsp?keywords=GASHDR&title=Gas%20Hydrates

22. Non-traditional Hydrocarbons: Gas Hydrates Organic Matter (x105 tons C)

23. Non-traditional Hydrocarbons Alberta tar sands Uinta Basin oil shale http://ostseis.anl.gov/guide/index.cfm

24. Wind Power Potential classes >2 are suitable http://www1.eere.energy.gov/windandhydro/wind_potential.html

26. Energy Recovered to Energy Invested from: Cutler et al. (1984, Science) and other sources note that these calculations have a high degree of uncertainty and are very technology dependent (i.e., as more efficient technologies become available the ER/EI will increase)

27. Oil Prices & Historical Events BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2006

28. Climatic Consequences http://visibleearth.nasa.gov/view_rec.php?id=8198

29. 420,000 Years of CO2 Record Vostok Ice Core (Petit et al. 1999)

30. 420,000 Years of CO2 Record Mauna Loa Historical (Keeling et al. 2005) Vostok Ice Core (Petit et al. 1999)

31. CO2 at Mauna Loa Keeling et al. (2005)

32. Temperature & CO2 Temp: Land & sea surface http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/gcag/gcag.html CO2: Keeling et al. (2005)

33. And it could be worse than this...Potential Feedbacks in Global Warming • Ocean Stagnation (removal of polar winter sinking of CO2-rich surface water — oceans contain 60x more dissolved CO2 than in atmosphere — also reducing upwelling reduces oxygen supply which reduces biologic pump) • Thawing of Siberian permafrost (500 billion tons = 75 times current output rate — e.g. if it thaws in 75 years, would double current rate of input of CO2 into atmosphere & also increase methane)

34. Consequences: Greenland Ice Cap http://earthasart.gsfc.nasa.gov/greenlandcoast.html

35. If Greenland Melts… flooded land in yellow 7 m (23 ft) sea level rise red dots — cities with >1,000,000 population

36. East & Gulf Coast with 7 m Sealevel Rise flooded land in yellow Boston New York Philadelphia Baltimore Washington Savannah New Orleans Houston/Galveston Miami

37. New Orleans: Katrina Flooding http://www.katrina.noaa.gov/helicopter/helicopter-2.html

38. If Antarctica Melts… flooded land in yellow 80 m (263 ft) sea level rise red dots — cities with >1,000,000 population

39. Earth Venus Dist. from Sun 150 x 106 km 108 x 106 km Black body temp. -18°C 55°C Greenhouse warm. 37°C (⇒15°C) 460°C Carbon reservoir limestone (CaCO3) CO2 gas Earth & Venus

40. the 6th extinction Mesozoic Paleozoic Cenozoic Mass Extinctions in the Geologic Record