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New and Updated Operational Tropical Cyclone Wind Products

This presentation discusses planned updates to the operational tropical cyclone intensity and structure algorithm, as well as the new operational Multiplatform Tropical Cyclone Surface Wind Analysis (MTC-SWA) product. It also covers the current uses of the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU) and planned updates and demonstrations. The schedule for the implementation of these updates and products is provided.

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New and Updated Operational Tropical Cyclone Wind Products

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  1. New and Updated Operational Tropical Cyclone Wind Products John A. Knaff – NESDIS/StAR - RAMMB, Fort Collins, CO Alison Krautkramer – NCEP/TPC - NHC, Miami, FL Mark DeMaria – NESDIS/StAR - RAMMB, Fort Collins, CO Andrea Schumacher – CIRA/CSU, Fort Collins, CO

  2. Outline • Planned updates to the operational CIRA/NESDIS – NCEP AMSU tropical cyclone intensity and structure algorithm • Current algorithm and uses • Planned updates • Possible new use • Schedule • Plans for a new operational Multiplatform Tropical Cyclone Surface Wind Analysis (MTC-SWA) product • Description of the new product • 2007 verification (H*Wind, best track wind radii) • Planned products • Schedule 62nd Interdepartmental Hurricance Conference

  3. Current Product • Uses the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU) from NOAA – 15, -16, -18 • Fix or Vmax, MSLP, & wind radii estimates • Radial vs. Height cross-sections of pressures, balance winds & temperatures on height surfaces • Horizontal heights, temperatures, & winds on standard pressure surfaces • Statistics related to the fix estimate 62nd Interdepartmental Hurricance Conference

  4. Some Current Uses • Operational intensity and structure guidance • Phase space diagrams (Bob Hart, FSU) • Near surface winds (MTC-SWA, plans for H*wind) • Examining extratropical transition (Pat Harr) 62nd Interdepartmental Hurricance Conference

  5. Planned Updates and Demonstrations Additional AMSU data • NASA Aqua • European Met-Op New Utilizations • MTC-SWA, H*Wind • Vertical Wind Shear estimates • Depth of the steering level 62nd Interdepartmental Hurricance Conference

  6. Example of the 2-d Winds 62nd Interdepartmental Hurricance Conference

  7. Estimates of Vertical Wind Shear • 2004-2007 North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones • NCEP 6o average • Versus • AMSU 6o average 62nd Interdepartmental Hurricance Conference

  8. Schedule (Time Table) • May 2008 – Project starts • Requested through TPC Spring 2008 - NCO to develop BUFR readers (Aqua and Met Op) • Received - Get statistical retrieval coefficients from NESDIS • Summer 2008 - Coordinate with TPC • Summer 2008 - Modify Code to accept Aqua and Met Op data • Fall/Winter 2008 – testing with TPC help • Spring 2009 - Transition to operations at NCO 62nd Interdepartmental Hurricance Conference

  9. MTC-SWA Description • Optimally combines and quality controls satellite-based, near surface wind observations and proxy winds • AMSU 2-d 850 or 700 hPa winds (Bessho et al 2006) • Cloud Drift/Water Vapor/ IR winds (e.g., Nieman et al., 1997) • Scatterometery (QuikSCAT, A-SCAT) • GOES IR flight-level proxy (Mueller et al 2006 with a few modifications) • Creates a low-level wind field analysis (Variational approach, weighted) • Applies a simple surface reductions over ocean & land which are loosely based on Franklin et al (2003) & Boose et al (2001) 62nd Interdepartmental Hurricance Conference

  10. Input: Hurricane DEAN 200720 August06 UTC 62nd Interdepartmental Hurricance Conference

  11. Analysis: Hurricane Dean 200720 August06 UTC 62nd Interdepartmental Hurricance Conference

  12. Verification/Comparison vs. H*Wind 62nd Interdepartmental Hurricance Conference

  13. Verification/Comparison vs. NHC wind radii Wind Radii Errors Detection of Wind Radii *Climatology from Knaff et al. (2007) 107,66,42 nmi for R34,50 & 64 HKD = (Hit Rate) – (False Alarm Rate) 62nd Interdepartmental Hurricance Conference

  14. Planned Products • ATCF (JTWC & NHC) • Analysis Fix (PR; Vmax, RMW, R34, R50, R64, MSLP) • CIRA/RAMMB Tropical Cyclone Web Site • Analysis Plots • Dynamic MSLP estimation • Flight-level kinetic energy estimation matching Maclay et al. (2008) methodology. 62nd Interdepartmental Hurricance Conference

  15. Examples Dynamical MSLP estimation Kinetic Energy (0-200km) Flight-level KE Felix (2007) 62nd Interdepartmental Hurricance Conference

  16. Schedule for MTC-SWA • May 2008 – Project Starts • Summer 2008 – Run Experimental Product at CIRA & Establish data flow at NESDIS • Winter 2008 - Install Software at NESDIS, Verify output , modify algorithm as necessary • Spring 2009 - Begin running the product at NESDIS • Winter 2009 – Develop the NESDIS/SSD Web Page, dissemination to ATCF from NESDIS • Spring 2010 – Finish operational transition 62nd Interdepartmental Hurricance Conference

  17. QUESTIONS? 62nd Interdepartmental Hurricance Conference

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