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Introduction to Project Management. Robert Barnes November 1998. Course Objectives. To give people an understanding of the STEPS and ISSUES of Project Management Appreciation of Project Reporting Participate in Projects Prepare for More Advanced Training. Course Outline.
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Introduction to Project Management Robert Barnes November 1998
Course Objectives • To give people an understanding of the STEPS and ISSUESof Project Management • Appreciation of Project Reporting • Participate in Projects • Prepare for More Advanced Training
Course Outline 1/ Introduction Project Management Processes 2/ Initiation 3/ Planning 4/ Communicating and Controlling 5/ Human Factors and the Problem of Estimates
Introduction What is a project? Temporary, Unique Has Start, Finish Expected Outcomes (Deliverables) Resources, Budget (time, $$) Example
The Project Life Cycle Intermediate Phase (s) Cost & Staff Level Final Phase Initial Phase Time
Getting the result that we want As proposed by the Project Sponsor As Specified in theProject Request As Designed by the Systems Analyst As produced by the Programmers As Installed at the User’s Site What the User Really Wanted!
Analyse Design Code Test Deliver The Waterfall SDLC User staff changes? Requirements Changed? New Insights? Must ignore
Prototyping Successive refinement - Creates excellent match between system and requirement Analyse Build What’s the Budget? When are you finished? Good for small projects
Conclusions - • No one answer is always right! • Vital to have feedback loops • Need to balance Planning and Doing
Project Processes Planning Initiating Controlling Executing Closing
Overlap of Process Groups What about multi-phase Projects? Executing Planning Closing Initiation Controlling
The Initiation Process Business Case Project Charter Project Manager Sponsor Champion Project Team
Project Initiation Source of Ideas? Objective - get approval to proceed [to next stage?] “Identify and Enrol Stakeholders” Top level commitment Peer-level support Authority over resources Organisational priorities Mission/vision Alignment Financial commitment What does it take?
Project Initiation Involves • Gathering Information • Define Scope - WHAT • Understand Rationale for Project - WHY • Identifying Business need(s) to be satisfied - Criteria for Success • Risk Assessment • High Level Budget - How Much (time, $$) • Formally qualify Project - Priority
MUST Include What? (deliverables) Why? (objectives) General, and Specific ($$) How much? ($$) Budget When? MAY include Background Alternatives Initial (high level) Project Plan The Business Case(Project Proposal) How do we justify a proposal? An example - Buscase Proforma.DOC JobNotes proposal
Basic Cost/Benefit Analysis • Improve efficiency of Business • Decrease Costs • Increase Revenue • Cost savings • Fewer Staff • Less material waste • Reduced inventory • Revenue Increases • More throughput with same resource
Common $ Measures of Benefit • Simple ROI • Discounted Rate of Return (IRR) • Net Present Value • Profitability Index • Payback Period Problems: Risk not included Non-financial critical factors simply ignored
Scorecard’s(Eg IE Scorecard) A formal way of rating intangible factors Headings not really important - key thing is the attempt to be systematic about benefits that are difficult to quantify.
Planning ProcessesCore Processes Activity Sequencing Scope Planning Schedule Development Activity Definition Activity Duration Estimation Scope Definition Cost Budgeting Resource Planning Cost Estimation Project Plan Development Actually, this is too idealised - in my experience, much more iteration needed!
Work Breakdown Structure(WBS) “Chunking” • Break task down into smaller tasks • How fine? • Too much detail • always planning, never doing • Not enough • Plans worthless S.M.A.R.T.
Gantt Charts • Probably the most important Project Planning/management Tool • Early stages - [graph] paper • Later - software (MS-Project?) • Shows Task schedule and relationships • Task relationships (although not the best diagram for this) • Task Start, Finish schedules • Resource assignments • Example MS-Project Printout - see “Model”
Task Relationships - Precedence and the Critical Path Exercise - “Plant Startup” Project task list, with durations and precedence given • 1/ Draw a Precedence Diagram • 2/ Identify the Critical Path • 3/ Calculate the shortest duration
Unnecessary Risk - Now Another Job is also on the Critical Path! • Safest - BUT • Loss of Focus (thinking about unimportant task) • Parkinsons Law will apply to AnotherJob (WkrB not busy) Early, Late Start. Slack. 5 -2 = 3 days slack Late Early 2 days Another Job Job 1 Job 2 5 days When should non-critical tasks start? Introduction to Project Management
Critical Path Critical Path - longest dependent path A -> B -> D Assumes flexible resource B A D C Available Manpower Introduction to Project Management
What determines which order is best? Critical Chain - a levelled CP Critical Chain - takes into account resource limits Either A -> B -> C-> D or A -> C -> B -> D B A D C Available Manpower
Discussion - what can go wrong? What are the sources of schedule risk? What are the sources of cost risk? What is a successfully-controlled project? The Risk Register External, Internal Risks Risks Introduction to Project Management
Controlling Processes Direct Work Initial Plan Review Plan Do work Report Progress Change Requests
Communication Regular (monthly?) Steering Committee Meetings 1/ What does she need to know to control the project? Regular (weekly?) and ad-hoc Project Meetings 2. What does the Steering Committee want to know?
Communication 1/ What does she need to know to control the project? • What’s done? • What’s in trouble? • What resources/options are needed? • What resources/options are available?
Communication S.M[.A.R.T] • What’s done? • Estimating progress of partly-completed tasks • What’s in trouble? • Do we need to worry about every task • Do we care how long a non-critical task takes? • What resources/options are needed? • Do estimates need revision? • Are there new tasks? • Has the critical path/chain changed? • What resources/options are available? • when do staff become free?
Communication • When are we going to get it? • What’s it going to cost? • What are the risks? 2. What does the Steering Committee want to know? May useEarned Value Analysis (EVA) - a formal way of measuring progress
Handling Project Tradeoffs The “Triple Constraint” Scope Cost. Time Cost What about Risk <- - - > Certainty?
Human Factors and the Problem of Estimates • A Specialist Project Company (eg Civil & Civic) has few staff, uses many contractors • Can add resources as needed • Doesn’t pay for idle time • Each task is contracted, the contractor has no other work (as far as C&C are concerned)
Functional Organisations • At R&SA, project staff may be drawn from different areas • Project staff may have many tasks at once • This creates some difficult project issues • Joes Story Claims Accounts Branch
Project Planning (Part 2) • Take the “Reasonable Estimate” and multiply by fudge factor • necessary in order to meet promised delivery • Work on several things at once • how else to keep busy? • Both of these are the COMMON PRACTICE • According to “Critical Chain” they’re BOTH WRONG Introduction to Project Management
The problem of estimates • “Task will take 5 days” • What does this mean? • Will take on average 5 days? • 50% probability that it will complete in 5 days? • Almost certainly (80%? 90%?) will complete in 5 days? Introduction to Project Management
Where are you going to put this line? Probability Curve • Almost certainly estimates contain substantial buffers • Most workers are unaware of this, and can’t tell you “How much buffer is allowed?” • Even if they could, they’d be too suspicious of your motives to tell you Introduction to Project Management
Parkinson’s Law Predicted effect? Worker must slow down or make work to look busy Worker is undercommitted Worker must keep busy Introduction to Project Management
Combining Estimates -Serial Tasks • Each job estimated as 5 days • How long will the project take? • If each task has safety margin, 20 must be a SAFE estimate!!!! Job 1(Wkr A) Job 2(Wkr B) Job 3(Wkr C) Job 4(Wkr B) Introduction to Project Management
Job 1(Wkr A) Job 2(Wkr B) Job 3(Wkr C) Job 4(Wkr B) • The “simple maths” answer (20) is invariably optimistic. • Experienced Project leaders add their own fudge factors • “5 + 5 = 13” • Yet we have already seen that each estimate has substantial safety • Why do we have to add more?
Non-critical Jobs Another Job(Wkr B) Another Job2(Wkr B) Job 1(Wkr A) Job 2(Wkr B) Job 3(Wkr C) Job 4(Wkr B) • If Job 1 finishes early, can Wkr B start on Job 2? • Perhaps - has he finished “Another Job”? • If not, does he know that “AJ” is not critical, and should be set aside? What if this makes AJ2 critical? • Result:- • Delays are passed on in full • Advances are usually wasted.
Where do we go wrong? Introduction to Project Management
Should complete somewhere within this The Solution (“Critical Chain”) • Replace this project plan, which we probably won’t meet • with one that is • ? Shorter • More likely to be met • easier to monitor through intelligent use of explicit buffers Project, with safety margins hidden Project, with NO margin Explicit Buffer Introduction to Project Management
Buffers and Schedule Pressure • Should project due-date be pushed to make room for buffers?YES!!!!! • BUFFERS ARE NOT OPTIONAL!!!!! • YOU HAVE ALREADY CHOPPED 25% OUT OF THE SCHEDULE - DON’T LET MANAGEMENT FORCE YOU TO HIDE YOUR BUFFERS, AS YOU USED TO! Introduction to Project Management
Exercise • Replan Plant Startup Gantt Chart with Explicit Buffers • Discuss • What effect has this had on project time? • What effect is it likely to have on the project reporting • Upwards • Downwards • IF • People understand about buffers • If they don’t Introduction to Project Management
Early, Late Start. Slack. Use (Latest - buffer) start Late Early 1 day buffer . . Job 1 Job 2 5 days When should non-critical tasks start? Introduction to Project Management
Closure Processes • Closes [stage of] project • Acceptance - did it meet spec (contract)? • How did we do? • Cost, schedule variance • What can we learn for next time • Should we update our standards?
Review 1/ Introduction Project Management Processes 2/ Initiation 3/ Planning 4/ Communicating and Controlling 5/ Human Factors and the Problem of Estimates