Northeast U.S. Broadcast Meteorologists' Use of Climate Services

1. Northeast U.S. Broadcast Meteorologists' Use of Climate Services Matt Noyes New England Cable News mnoyes@necn.com

2. Overview • Wide Range of Climate Services offered by National Weather Service • Most Readily Available Products from Climate Prediction Center via website • Northeast Broadcast Meteorologists Use Only a Fraction of Available Products • 6-10 Day Outlook has become trademark of CPC among N.E. U.S. Broadcast Meteorologists

3. Northeast Viewer Demographics • Boston/Manchester, NYC and Hartford markets cater mostly to city life • Springfield (MA), Burlington (VT), Maine and Upstate NY markets cater to more rural audience - Farming/Agricultural Interests • Surveyed broadcast meteorologists from Bangor, ME, to Syracuse, NY

4. Most Commonly Used Products • From Climate Prediction Center: Drought Monitor, ENSO Discussion, 6-10 Day Outlook, 30/60/90 Day Outlook (dependent on the meteorologist) • From Local Offices: Daily Climatic Summary, Hydrologic Observations (CO-OP Reports), Climatic Normals and Records for Cities

5. Things to Remember About Broadcasters... • Varying levels of education and meteorological training • Most useful products and most utilized services will be those that are most understood • Wide Range of Understanding - and therefore, utility - observed with Northeast Broadcast meteorologists

6. Why Does This Work So Well? • Drought Monitor: Easy to Understand and Easy to Read - Ease is the key! • Clearly Defined Classifications for Every Region in the Country • Antecedent Conditions Well Understood by Local Meteorologists - Therefore, Assessment Classification Clearly Understood

7. Why Does ENSO Diagnostic Discussion Work So Well? • ENSO Overview: Clearly stated observations and analysis of current factors and forecasted pattern • Thorough explanation of factors at work, considering ocean-atmosphere interaction • “El Nino” craze of last several years among public has shed much brighter spotlight on this phenomenon • Often, newsrooms receive this data before the meteorologists do - stories can therefore be run prematurely

8. 6-10/8-14 Day Outlook: Why Does This Work? Why Isn’t it as Widely Used? • 6-10/8-14 Day Outlooks: The Viewing Public is Interested in this time period - close enough that (outdoor) plans are being made • Skill is exhibited and forecast is usually reliable • Two Important Factors Limit Understanding (Usage) By Broadcasters: • 1) Quantitative Forecast (estimate of how much above or below normal) • 2) Detailed Synoptic Reasoning not available - result is lack of understanding by meteorologists

9. Understanding Breeds Usage • Broadcasting includes: 1) Short Range Forecasting, 2) Medium Range Forecasting, 3) Specialized Forecasts, 4) Graphics = Limited Time for Weather Analysis and Operational Forecasting • Result: Turn to source that provides clear, concise, but thorough analysis - PMDHMD used to provide this source • Current 6-10/8-14 day discussion focuses on model output and variability, but no longer on teleconnections and synoptic/planetary interactions

10. Seasonal Forecasts • Obvious Positive Points: • Significant Lead Time • Public & Industry Can Prepare Accordingly • Greatest Split Found With 30/60/90 Day Outlooks • Same Interaction of Understanding & Usage

11. Of Those Who Use It... • A Desire for Quantitative Forecast Products • A Relation of Anticipated Seasonal Pattern to Correlated Weather Hazards (Above/Below Normal Snowfall, Flooding, Etc.)

12. An Interesting Aside... • Hazard Assessment Has Tremendous Value on National Scale • Not Being Used by Local Broadcasters • Too Broad In Scale • Regional Graphics and Scale Desired

13. Accessibility • Significant # of Products Broadcasters SHOULD Be Referencing: • UV Forecast • Hydrological Conditions/Forecasts • Heat Index/Wind Chill Products • It All Comes Back to Ease • Redesigned (Simplified but Expanded) CPC Front Page of Website Would Encourage Far Greater Perusal & Use of Products

14. Local Climate Products: • Daily Climatic Summary: • Used everyday for Almanac Data • Stations Rely on Time of Release • Products Contain Exactly What’s Needed • Daily Hydrologic Observations (CO-OP Reports): • Exceptionally Useful - Fills Wide Data Gaps • National Website to House Data with Archives Would Be Exceptional

15. More Local Climate Products... • Climatic Normals and Records for Cities: • Often Referenced At Beginning of Months • Referenced Prior to Forecasted Heat Waves & Cold Snaps • Substantial City Databases Available • National Website to House Data Would Be Helpful Here Too • ASOS Quality Control • Biggest Help is Notification of Limiting Factors • KBOX (Taunton) Office Especially Good at This

16. IN CONCLUSION... • Unparalleled Array of Climate Products Available from CPC & Local Offices • Only a Fraction of These Products Utilized • Utility Determined By: • Ease: Ability to Read Products • Understanding: Ability to Understand the Forecast • Accessibility: Ability to Access the Products (Website)

17. IN CONCLUSION... • Private Industry is Enabling Meteorologists, Building Dependency • Detailed Explanations/Discussions of Driving Global Patterns • Easily Understood Graphics • Quantitative Forecasts • Correlation of Pattern to Sensible Weather Events

18. Contributions... • NECN, New England: Tim Kelley, Joe Joyce • WBZ, Boston, MA: Mish Michaels, Terry Eliasen • WCVB, Boston, MA: Harvey Leonard • WHDH, Boston, MA: Todd Gross, Pete Bouchard, Chikage Windler • WHIO, Dayton, OH: Steve Prinzivalli • WSTM, Syracuse, NY: Wayne Mahar • WWLP, Springfield, MA: Rick Sluben