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Prof. Čedo Maksimović Nuno Simões, Li-Pen Wang, Susana Ochoa

Advances in Flood Risk Management Science - Improved short term rainfall and urban flood prediction. Prof. Čedo Maksimović Nuno Simões, Li-Pen Wang, Susana Ochoa The Royal Society, London, 5 th September 2011. Contents:. Urban flood modelling Dual-drainage models

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Prof. Čedo Maksimović Nuno Simões, Li-Pen Wang, Susana Ochoa

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  1. Advances in Flood Risk Management Science- Improved short term rainfall and urban flood prediction Prof. Čedo Maksimović Nuno Simões, Li-Pen Wang, Susana Ochoa The Royal Society, London, 5th September 2011

  2. Contents: • Urban flood modelling • Dual-drainage models • Radar-based integrated rainfall forecasting • Methodology and key techniques • UK case study: Cranbrook catchment, Redbridge • Rainbgauge-only-based spatial-temporal rainfall prediction • Methodology and key techniques • Portugal cast study: Coimbra • Remarks

  3. Focus on estimating fast and reliable flood distributions over the target urban areas Urban flood modelling

  4. 1D/2D, 1D/1D and Hybrid models 1D / 2D simulation Hybrid 1D/1D + 1D/2D simulation 1D Sewer Simulation 1D / 1D simulation

  5. Interaction between 1D Overland Network and 2D Overland Network

  6. 1D-1D Hybrid 1D-2D

  7. Simulation time

  8. Integrate state-of-the-art rainfall forecasting and modelling techniques to produce reliable rainfall forecasts as inputs for urban pluvial flood modelling/forecasting Radar-based integrated rainfall forecasting

  9. Radar-based integrated rainfall prediction

  10. Cranbrook catchment, London, UK The drainage area of the Cranbrook catchment is approximately 910 hectares; the main water course is about 5.75 km long, of which 5.69 km are piped or culverted.

  11. Uncertainties of using rainfall nowcasts over different spatial and temporal scales for event 2010/08/22-23.

  12. Uncertainties of applying downscaled rainfall inputs to hydraulic modelling for event 2010/08/22-23.

  13. Combine local point rainfall information with interpolation techniques to provide reliable rainfall forecasts as inputs for urban pluvial flood modelling/forecasting Raingauge-only-based spatial-temporal rainfall prediction

  14. Raingauge-only-based rainfall prediction= Time series prediction + interpolation techniques

  15. Example in Coimbra, Portugal

  16. Time series prediction (in 5 minutes): ability to generate extreme values

  17. SSA + SVM time series prediction plus IDW interpolation techniques 17h25m 17h30m 17h35m Prediction of water levels 30 minutes in advance

  18. Remarks • Radar-based integrated rainfall prediction can effectively reflect larger scale weather variation to local scales, but • Accuracy: Data combination techniques • Resolution: Super-resolution radar images / rainfall information • Raingauge-only spatial-temporal rainfall prediction exhibits promising predictability, but • Lead time: Improved time series prediction models • Spatial variability: Interpolation techniques • Hybrid dual-drainage modelling may be the solution to providing fast and reliable flood prediction, but • Flood prone areas: flood map generation • Calibration: Coupled with image processing techniques Remaining issues Prospective work to address remaining issues

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