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Within-country electoral context: candidates heterogeneity as determinant of voting behaviour

Within-country electoral context: candidates heterogeneity as determinant of voting behaviour. Mikolaj Czesnik Polish National Election Study. Research problem. Context as an important determinant of voting behaviour (e.g. the True European Voter project, done within the COST framework)

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Within-country electoral context: candidates heterogeneity as determinant of voting behaviour

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  1. Within-country electoral context:candidates heterogeneity as determinant of voting behaviour MikolajCzesnik Polish National Election Study

  2. Research problem • Context as an important determinant of voting behaviour (e.g. the True European Voter project, done within the COST framework) • The problem of within-country electoral context • Candidates constitute such a context • Female candidates and representation

  3. Research questions • What is the impact of the candidates on voting behaviour? • How their features and characteristics influence voting behaviour? • Does gender balance (on the list) influence voting behaviour?

  4. Theory • On the one hand, classical accounts suggest that who are the candidates, how many they are etc., matters (starting from Downs 1957) • On the other hand, knowledge about Polish elections, candidates and voters suggests that this element of electoral politics in Poland does not matter at all

  5. Hypotheses • H1: Candidates heterogeneity in the constituency increases voter turnout (the higher the heterogeneity, the higher the vt) • H2: Candidates heterogeneity on the party list increases support for this party list (the higher the heterogeneity, the higher the support)

  6. Hypotheses • H1: The more females on the lists (on constituency-level), the higher the voterturnout • H2: The more females on the list, the higher the support for this list

  7. Research design • Multi-level modelling; constituency level included in the analysis (on this level candidates’ hetero/homogeneity can be estimated)

  8. Research design • Aggregate-level analysis: • a) is turnout higher in constituencies with higher % of females? • b) does higher % of females on list increase support for this list?

  9. Research design • Individual-level analysis: • a) is probability of voting higher among voters from constituencies with higher % of females? • b) is probability of voting for particular party higher among voters from constituencies where list have higher % of females?

  10. Data • EAST PaC data combined with the PNES data (exit-poll data and 'normal’ post-election survey; also official data)

  11. Thanks!

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