Living with climate change: Policy options for ensuring food security in South and Southeast Asia

1. Living with climate change: Policy options for ensuring food security in South and Southeast Asia Claudia Ringler, David Spielman, Mark Rosegrant International Food Policy Research Institute

2. Objectives • To review and synthesize the inter-linked impacts of climate change, technology policy and water resources for food security in South and Southeast Asia (SSEA). • To identify regional policy options, technologies, and future research on these topics to assist USAID in incorporating sustainable food security policies in SSEA into its operational strategy.

3. Climate change predictions: Temperature Changes in normal annual maximum temperature (°C), 2000 to 2050 Using the A1B scenario Source: IFPRI 2011

4. Climate change predictions: Rainfall Changes in mean annual precipitation in (mm), 2000 to 2050 Using the A1B scenario Source: IFPRI 2011

5. Climate change predictions: Yields Impact of climate change on irrigated rice yield, 2000 to 2050 Using the A1B scenario Source: IFPRI 2011

6. Climate change hotspots • Bangladesh: Dhaka and Rajshahi • India: Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Orissa, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, and West Bengal • Nepal: Western areas • Pakistan: Punjab • Cambodia: Central region • Vietnam: Red River and Mekong Delta • Philippines: Luzon

7. Mitigation strategies with potential • Mid-season drainage for rice • Dryland rice • Direct seeded rice • Alternative wetting and drying of rice • Organic inputs for rice, maize, wheat • Zero/minimum tillage of rice, maize, and wheat

8. Mitigation strategies with potential • Reductions in CO2 emissions by technology (m tons CO2/year) South Asia Southeast Asia Source: IFPRI 2011

9. Reduced emissions, higher yields • Yield increases x emission reductions for selected technologies • (% difference from baseline) Source: IFPRI 2011

10. Solutions: How do we get there? • Invest in science and technology • Invest in development and delivery • Improve private incentives • Improve market regulation • Cooperate, collaborate • Plan, time, and sequence strategically • Experiment and adapt • Involve communities and women • Involve vulnerable social groups • Marshall good leadership, good governance Source: Adapted from Spielman and Pandya-Lorch 2009

11. Science and technology Expenditure on agricultural research, Nepal, 1996-2009 Source: Agricultural Science and Technology Indicators (ASTI) 2011

12. Development and delivery Procedures and requirements for wheat variety development in Pakistan Source: Arshad et al./BARS, Fatehjang, Punjab, Pakistan 2011

13. Private incentives Maize, pearl millet, rice and wheat yields, India (by state), 1965-2008 Source: Kolady, Spielman, and Cavalieri 2010

14. Markets and market regulation The biosafety regulatory situation in South and Southeast Asia

15. More technologies with potential • Transgenic abiotic stress tolerance • Heat, drought tolerance in rice, wheat, maize • Transgenic nutrient use efficiency • Nitrogen-use efficient rice, wheat, maize • Conservation agriculture • Direct seeded rice, zero tillage wheat • New crop rotations, soil covers, residue management • Precision agriculture • Real time application of ICT to farm production

16. In conclusion: What will it take? • Eliminate regulatory uncertainties • Promote public-private partnerships • Encourage domestic and foreign investments • Provide sufficient protection of intellectual property • Encourage commercialization of public research • Develop business models that reach smallholders • Design sensible, targeted subsidy regimes • Focus water-based adaptation strategies on improved water use efficiency at the field, system and basin level, using direct seeding, alternative wetting and drying, and conservation agriculture practices, among others