Trends and Issues in Thailand’s Climate Ch ange

1. Trends and Issues in Thailand’s Climate Change • Nipon Tangtham • Professor in Watershed Management • Advisor: Forestry Research CenterFaculty of forestry, Kasetsart University Ppt prepared for Symposium I: Tropical Forests and Climate Change In FORTROP II international conference on “Tropical Forestry Change in a Changing World” The Convention Center, the KU Golden Jubilee Building, Kasetsart University, Bangkok, Thailand 17-21 November 2008 Organized by The Kasetsart University Faculty of Forestry (KUFF)and many other CO - ORGANIZERS 20 November 2008:10:30-10:50

2. Outline of Presentation • UNFCCC and the Kyoto Protocol :THAILAND’s INITIAL NATIONAL COMMUNICATION UNDER THE UNFCCC • Status of Thailand Greenhouse Gases Emission • Thailand’s Policy on Climate Change • Trends of surface air temperature and mean annual rainfall :Indochina Deforestation Effect on Regional Precipitation and East-Asian Summer Monsoon • Global Warming & Sea-levelRisingin the Gulf of Thailand • Recent studies related to climate change in Thailand • Issues on research results :the roles of forest management vs intensive agriculture on global warming mitigation

3. Policy Issues Thailand’s involvement with UNFCCC and the Kyoto protocol • Thailand ratified the UNFCCC in December,28, 1994 and the Convention became effective in the country three months later in March 1995 • Thailand signed its support for the Kyoto Protocol on 2 February 1999, ratified on 28 August 2002 • Thailand Greenhouse Gas Management Organization; TGO.-the newly established autonomous governmental organization with a specific purpose as an implementing agency on GHG (Cabinet approved on 15 May 2007) • National Strategy for Climate Change Mitigation (Cabinet approved on 22 January2008)

4. National Communication Adaptation Education, Training & Public Awareness Research & Observation System Mitigation Development & Technology Transfer Capacity Building Clean Development Mechanism Inventories, Registry & Monitoring system Thailand’s national and government policies Thailand’s Policy on Climate Change Office of Natural Resources and Environmental Policy and Planning CD4CDM 19 October 2005

5. THAILAND’s INITIAL NATIONAL COMMUNICATION UNDER THE UNFCCC Office of Environmental Policy and Planning. 2000.Thailand’s Initial National Communication under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.Ministry of Science, Technologand Environment. Bangkok,Thailand. 100 p. • CONTENTS • Introduction • National Circumstances • Inventory of Greenhouse Gas in 1994 • Greenhouse Gas Projections and Mitigation Option • Vulnerability and Adaptation • Policies and Measures • Financial Resources, Technology Transfer and Capacity Building 19 • Public Education and Awareness http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/natc/thainc1.pdf

6. Trends and Issues in Thailand’s Climate Change Greenhouse Gas Emission Trends in Thailand Inventory of Greenhouse Gases in 1994 THAILAND’s INITIAL NATIONAL COMMUNICATION UNDER THE UNFCCC http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/natc/thainc1.pdf

7. Trends and Issues in Thailand’s Climate Change Thailand’s Greenhouse Gas Projections and Mitigation Options THAILAND’s INITIAL NATIONAL COMMUNICATION UNDER THE UNFCCC http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/natc/thainc1.pdf

8. Thailand Greenhouse Gases Emission by Sector in 2002 Emission (1000 tonnes) Emission Source Quantity (tonnes) 69% 1. Energy Sector 144,475,000 2. Industrial Process 10,777,000 3. Agricultural &Livestock 3,188,000 24% 4. Landuse Change & Forestry 50,221,000 5% 2% 0.3% 5. Wastes 677,000 Total emission 297,611,000 Sources of emission by sector Source of information: National Clean Development Mechanism Study for the Kingdom of Thailand (2002) Office of Natural Resources and Environmental Policy and Planning CD4CDM 19 October 2005

9. Emission from the Energy Sector between 2000-2004 (1000 tonnes) Source: Thailand Energy Statistics 2004 Office of Natural Resources and Environmental Policy and Planning CD4CDM 19 October 2005

10. Empirical evidence for Thailand surface air temperature change : Possible causal attributions and impacts differences between annual averaged maximum and minimum annual averaged minimum temperature Trend of surface air temperature Dr. Atsamon Limsakul Environmental Research and Training Center Department of Environmental Quality Promotion August 2004 annual averaged maximum temperature . Linear trends (C per 50 yrs) for annual averaged maximum temperature (a), annual averaged minimum temperature (b), and the differences between annual averaged maximum and minimum (c) from 1951 to 2003 .

11. Trend of Mean Annual Rainfall in Thailand ที่มา:แผนภูมิขอมูลภูมิอากาศ กรมอุตุนิยมวิทยา (2548)::Source:TMD(2005)

13. Trends and Issues in Thailand’s Climate Change Mitigation Measures: • Energy Sector: • Demand Demand–side management Program • Energy Conservation and Promotion Act • Switching Fuel • Transportation Improvement • Forestry Sector: • Protection of Forest • Reforestation • Afforestation : Prime Minister’ s Policy to increase green areas by using economic incentive tools http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/natc/thainc1.pdf

14. Trends and Issues in Thailand’s Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation • As a tropical country, Thailand is highly, vulnerable to climate change in five major areas • Agriculture • Forest • water resources • Coastal • Health • V&A is the most disadvantage area of work in climate change • Capacity building on research and and development is urgently needed • Lack of sufficient international support to conduct research on the issues • Need immediate attention regionally and globally. http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/natc/thainc1.pdf

15. Vegetation exists Deforested region IMPACT OF DEFORESTSTION ON REGIONAL PRECIPITATIONOVER THE INDOCHINA DENINSULA :Special Reference to the Northeastern ThailandbyS.Kanae,Y.Oki and K.Musiake Kanae et.al., (2001). Significant decrease in precipitation over Thailand were detected only in September. The magnitude of the mean decrease over the whole deforested area was relatively 7% change and the local maximum decrease was 29% relative change. It is explained that the monsoon westerlies which are normally predominant external force influencing this regional climate disappear in September when the maximum rainfall is typically occurred. Journal of Hydrometeorology Vol.2 No.1 February 2001

16. Decreasing trend of rainfall in Septemberin Phisanulok and Sakhon Nakhon in Northeast Thailand(Kanae et al., 2001) 300 300 200 200 1990 1950 1990 1950 Time series of precipitation at selected meteorological station indicate longer negative trend in September compare to that in other months

17. Is monsoon rainfall decreasing? -Impact of deforestation in Thailand on water cycle The rainfall in the whole of Thailand in the late monsoon season (September) shows a remarkable decreasing trend since1950’s. This decrease of rainfall may, at least partly, be attributed to the change of surface water balance induced by change of the surface vegetation condition, i.e., the deforestation over the whole of the country as shown in Fig.1. The recent model study (Kanae et al., 2001) has suggested that the decreasing trend of rainfall in September may be related at least partly to the recent deforestation in Thailand. That is, the deforestation over a wide region in the plain area of Thailand is likely to induce reduction of surface roughness and evaporation efficiency, and increase of albedo(reflected short wave radiation), which result in increase of sensible heating and decrease of evaporation. This change of surface heat balance in turn affect atmospheric stability to decrease cumulus convection and rainfall. However, this effect of deforestation to decrease rainfall is noticeable only in September, when the southwest monsoon current has become weak. In July and August, when the monsoon current is still strong, the change of land surface condition by deforestation tends to change distribution of rainfall, rather than to decrease the overall rainfall amount over the deforested area Role of large-scale vegetation and land use on water cycle and climate in monsoon Asia Prof Tetsuzo Yasunari Frontier Research System for Global Change (FRSGC) and Institute of Geoscience, University of Tsukuba

18. Indochina Deforestation Effect on East-Asian Summer Monsoon The results of the experiment on the impact of Indochina deforestation on the East-Asian summer monsoon by Sen et.al (2003) indicate that deforestation in the peninsula has not only local but also far-reaching effects on the East Asia summer monsoon. Locally, the effect could be described as increases in wind speed and Temperature, and decrease in water vapor mixing ratio from surface up to about 850 mb. Furthermore, the deforestation tends to enhance the rising motions, and hence, tends to reduce surface pressure and geopotential height up to about 850 mb over the deforested area. The local landscape changes tend to increase rainfall on the downwind side and decrease it on the upwind side.

19. Trend of Rainfall in Eastern Thailand: Results obtained from Observation and 10,15 and 20 year Time Series Regression Analysis • Working group on Eastern region Carrying Capacity study for development and environment prevention(2006) • Overall region annual rainfall has decreased, excepted in Trat Province which having an increasing trend • Rate of decreasing was maximumat Chantaburi (-19.4mm)followed by Rayong, (-10.3 mm.),Chachoengsao (-8.6mm.),Srakaew(-8.0mm.),Nakhon Nayok (-7.4mm.),Prachinburi (-4.8 mm.) and minimum atChonburiProvince (-4.6 mm.) • Trat Province has an increasing trend of9.12 mm/annum • It is noticeable that among the months of decreasing rainfall amount, the maximal decreasing was in “ September or October” which is the peak of rainy season, even in Trat Province

20. Deforestation and No. of Foggy Days Recent changes in number of foggy days in Thailand, especially in the North have been observed by Nomoto (1999) and Nomoto (2003). The number of foggy days has been decreasing at most stations, especially Chiang Rai (CR), Phrea (Ph) and Nan (N) provinces. Assuming that the trends in changes are linear, the rate of decrease reached 1.42 days/yr at CR, 2.01 days/yr at Ph and 1.97 days/yr at N respectively. The numbers at Mae Hong Son and Mae Sariang have not decreased continuously, but have fluctuated widely throughout the period (1951-1995).

21. Global Warming & Rising OceansJeffrey ChantonAn ActionBioscience.org original article • In addition to island nations, low-lying coastal countries are threatened by rising sea level. • A 1 meter rise in sea level would inundate half of Bangladesh’s rice land. Bangladeshis would be forced to migrate by the millions. • Other rice growing lowlands which would be flooded include those of Viet Nam, China, India and Thailand.Millions of climate refugees could be created by sea level rise in the Philippines, Indonesia and Egypt. http://www.actionbioscience.org/environment/chanton.html

22. Will sea-level really fall in the Gulf of Thailand?Vongvisessomjai, S.Songklanakarin J. Sci. Technol., 2006, 28(2) : 227-248 • Rate of sea-level changes due to climate changes vary according to latitudes: namely (i) in high and conditions occur with significant sea-level rises, and (ii) in low latitudes, successive humid and arid conditions occur with small sea-level rises or falls. • IPCC projection of future sea-level rise in the high and and high scenarios respectively is wrongly accepted to be applicable to the Gulf of Thailand, which is in the low latitudes, where air and seawater temperatures are already high, and therefore, an insignificant increase of temperatures is found in several large cities. • Analyses of 56 years data of tides recorded at Ko Lak, Prachuap Khirikhan province and Sattahip, Chonburi province revealed that sea levels are falling slowly, which is consistent with results of Gregory (1993) who reported sea-level falls in the low latitudes and the Gulf of Thailand of 0-50 milimeters using U.K. Meteorological Offices Coupled Ocean-atmosphere General Circulation Model. • In conclusion, the sea-level in the Gulf of Thailand is found preliminarily to be falling slightly or not changing, contradicting the belief that sea-level is rising in the Gulf of Thailand at the same rate as that in the high and middle latitudes. This should be investigated in more detail in the near future. http://www2.psu.ac.th/PresidentOffice/EduService/journal/28_2_pdf/01_sea_level_fall.pdf

23. Figure 21. Monthly mean water levels at Ko Lak and Sattahip from 1940-1996 (HD, 1998). http://www2.psu.ac.th/PresidentOffice/EduService/journal/28_2_pdf/01_sea_level_fall.pdf

24. Sea Level Trend in Gulf of Thailand Using Tide Gauge Dataสมมาตร เนียมนิล และ อิทธิ ตริสิริสัตยวงศSommart Niemnil and Itthi Trisirisatayawong ABSTRACT • Sea level change is an index of climate change especially the global warming. Global sea level is rising at 1.8 mm/yr (IPCC,2007), but few studies have been conducted regarding local sea level change and there is virtually no systematic study in the Gulf of Thailand. The objective of this research is to determine the rate of sea level change in the Gulf of Thailand using annual average sea-level data from 3 tide gauge stations of Hydrographic Department, Royal Thai Navy namely Sattahip station in Chonburi province, Ko Lak station in Prachuap Khiri Khan province and Ko Mattaphon station in Chumporn province and one station from Port Authority of Thailand namely KoSichang in Chonburi province. • The results shows no agreements among the rates determined from different stations. Analysis of data of Sattahip station, Ko Mattaphon and Ko Sichang yield the rising rate of 0.22, 0.51 and 0.81 mm/yr respectively whereas data from Ko Lak station, Prachuap Khiri Khan gives a falling rate of 0.52 mm/yr. • The conflicted results indicate the need of further investigation of local factors before actual rate of sea level change in the Gulf of Thailand could be determined. • KEYWORDS : Sea Level Change, Tide Gauge, Gulf of Thailand • sniemnil@gmail.com • ภาควิชาวิ ศวกรรมสํารวจ คณะวิศวกรรมศาสตร จุฬาลงกรณมหาวิทยาลัย กรุงเทพ ฯ 10400 • Department of Survey Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Chulalongkorn University, Bangkok http://elib.fisheries.go.th/nifi-lib/ver1.7/misc/viewintn.asp?Ifmfn=/LIBCAB/DRAWERS/ARTICLE/DATA0007/00007707.PDF

25. Figure 1. Long Term Sea Level Trend at Sattahip Station, Chonburi Province. Figure 2. Long Term Sea Level Trend at Ko Mattaphon Station, Chumporn Province. Figure 4. Long Term Sea Level Trend at Ko Lak Station, Prachuap Khiri Khan Province. Figure 3. Long Term Sea Level Trend at Ko Sichang Station, Chonburi Province . http://elib.fisheries.go.th/nifi-lib/ver1.7/misc/viewintn.asp?Ifmfn=/LIBCAB/DRAWERS/ARTICLE/DATA0007/00007707.PDF

26. Recent studiesrelated to climate change in Thailand

28. 1961-1990 2010-2039 2040-2069 2070-2099 Impacts of Climate Change on Forest Type Condition of the Upper Chao Phraya River Basin Change in Forest type Predicted Change in Forest Types determined basing on Environmental Factors caused by Climate Change/Global Warming according to HadCM2Model Techamahasaranond,J.2001

29. Impact of Climate Change on Water Resource of the Upper Chao Praya Basin: The Inflow of Bhumibol and Sirikit Reservoirs Ping basin Nanbasin Wangbasin The 25 main riverbasins of Thailand Sirikit Reservoir Yombasin Bhumipol Reservoir Bhumibol and Sirikit Reservoirs in Ping and Nan basin of the Upper Chao Praya Basin: http://conservation.forest.ku.ac.th/GAME/report/summary_report.pdf

30. The Potential Socio-Economic Effects of Climate Change : Impacts in Thailand Results from the models: • Thailand has approximately 2940km of coastline, much of which contains important economic activities such as shrimp farming and rice farming. The study considered the potential impact of a 0.5 m and 1 m rise of sea levels in the Suratthani Province in southern Thailand. • This region is characterised by a sand dune line which may mark an ancient shoreline and has a consistent elevation about 1m above present sea level. It was therefore used as an indicative boundary to the area potentially affected by a 1m sea-level rise. • The suggestion is that 7400 ha (37 percent) of the study area would be affected by inundation under a 1 m sea-level rise. About 4200 ha of productive agricultural land and large numbers of shrimp ponds would be lost. http://ciesin.columbia.edu/docs/004-149/004-149.html

31. When does Kog-Ma forest absorb CO2 gas? Atmosphere Forest • The hill evergreen forest may absorb CO2 gas in the dry season, while it may release CO2 gas in the rainy season. Annual carbon budget in KogMa canopy absorption tC/ha/yr20.9 soil respiration tC/ha/yr25.3 NEE tC/ha/yr 4.4 carbon release We want OBSERVATION DATA! Tentative Value!

32. Effects of crop managements on soil carbon sequestration Jaiarree,S.2008.Soil Carbon Dynamics in Agro-ecosystems in Thailand. Ph.D. Thesis progress report: JGSEE, KMUTT Table 12 CO2 (ton CO2 ha-1) and CH4 emissions (ton CH4 ha-1) and N2O emissions (ton N2O ha-1) from native forest and corn soil in each season in 2005 b CO2 equivalent: calculated from GWP of CO2, CH4 and N2O in 1, 21 and 310 , respectively. NF = 200 yrs.-Dry evergreen forest CI = Corn, inter cropping with baby corn ;10-15t/ha compost application CC = Super sweet corn;10-15 t/ha compost application

33. Trends and Issues in Thailand’s Climate Change • Scenarios derived from four GCM models were used in the analysis of impact on agriculture in Thailand. The four models were: • (1) CSIRO global coupled ocean-atmosphere-sea-icemodel (CSIRO coupled GCMs or CGCM), • (2) HadCM2 model, • (3) ECHAM4/OPYC3 model and • (4) CCCMA’s THAILAND’s INITIAL NATIONAL COMMUNICATION UNDER THE UNFCCC FUTURE RESEARCH ISSUES • Improvement of Climate modeling • Development of Impact Modeling • Vulnerability and Adaptation Studies • Energy • Biodiversity and timber and non-timber products • Tourism • Permanent crops and livestock • Coastal resources such as beach, coastal ecology, coral reef, and land use change • Direct and indirect health effects such as heat-related death and illness, physical and psychological trauma due to disasters, vectorborne and non-vector-bornediseases • Social and Economic Issues http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/natc/thainc1.pdf

34. Ongoing Research and Projects • CDM A/R Pilot Projects in Thailand “Advanced methods for measuring and monitoring CO2 Emission/Reduction in Afforestation and Reforestation Projects”Cooperative Project :Michigan State University (MSU)+ Mahasarakham Univ. +Suranaree Technology Univ. + Land Development Department + Royal Forest Department under NRCT(National Research Council of Thailand)started from 2007 • Investigation on the effects of climate change on natural resources and environment in Thailand:Mahidol Universitysupported by OEPP • DNPMaster Planforclimate change mitigation: KUFF supported by Department of National Park, Wildlife and Plant (DNP)

35. ThaiFlux Colloquium 2006 Gas and Energy Fluxes in Ecosystems, Thailand Network 31st October 2006 08.50-17.00 Princess Sirindhorn International Center for Research, Development and Tecnnology Transfer. Kasetsart University at Bangken, Bangkok

36. Hill evergreen forests at Kog-Ma Dry dipterocarp forest (2007) Teak plantation at Lampang Rice (rain-fed) at Sukothai Dry evergreen forests at Sakaerat Rice (irrigated) at Pitsanulok Mixed deciduous forests at Maeklong Casava Plantation at Nakorn Ratchasima Sugarcane plantation at Nakonpatom Rubber plantation at Chachengsao Dry dipterocarp forest (2007) Fig 1. Observation sites in ThaiFlux network

37. Issues A climate model suggests that chopping down the Earth's trees would help fight global warming Global warming :A new tree line Apr 12th 2007 From The Economist print edition ……… Dr Bala of the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, in California, and his colleagues has found, rather counter-intuitively(ความรู้สึกที่เกิดขึ้นอย่างตรงกันข้าม), that removing all of the world's trees might actually cool the planet down. Conversely, adding trees everywhere might warm it up. …… When Dr Bala ordered global clearcutting, the Integrated Climate and Carbon Model calculated that the atmosphere's carbon-dioxide levels would roughly double by 2100. This is a much greater increase than happens in a business-as-usual simulation, but it would, paradoxically, make for a colder planet. That is because brighter high latitudes would reflect more sunlight in winter, cooling the local environment by as much as 6°C. …………. http://www.economist.com/science/displaystory.cfm?story_id=8998216

38. Solar Radiation, R Reflected Radiation = fR Evapo-transpiration, Ef Sensible Heat Flux (Heating the air), C Soil Heat Flux, G Energy Balance at the ground surface with forest cover Snow Snow Storage at the ground surface, Vs+(C + G) = R - fR - Ef • Higher reflectivity = brighter, shinier surface (snow, ice) • Lower reflectivity = darker, rougher surface (soil, sand)  = albedo [PPT]Catchment Erosion and Evolution GEOG 2520 Mike Kirkby Lecture #4...

39. Issues “coastal erosion”and “global warming” • Normal coastal erosion becomes a critical problem due to several factors. Among them are global warming that leads to fluctuating climate and an alarmingly high sea level, construction of dams that lead to the disappearance of 75 percent of land accumulated from the sediments flowing to the river mouth, land subsidence due to industrial development areas around the Gulf of Thailand, as well as the deterioration of mangrove forest caused by shrimp farming and woodcutting. Assoc.Prof. Dr. Thanawat Jarupongsakul , leader of the research project on solution for coastal erosion problems at Chulalongkorn University, • Dr. Thanawat also stated that if the unsolved problems were allowed to continue, coastal erosion would become aggravated at the rate of 65 meters per year. Then, within a few decades, the community around Suvannabuhumi Airport would certainly be affected. go.worldbank.org/TANCXJOIZ0

40. Issues Thai temple fights off encroaching tide as world sea levels rise" • March 31, 2008KHUN SAMUT CHINI - The deserted Khun Samut temple, the only building left in a Thai village, has been eroded by waves as time goes by. The encroaching tide has sent all the villagers fleeing inland. • Over 30 years, the sea around Khun Samut Chin village has engulfed more than one kilometre (0.6 miles) of land, World Bank figures show, mostly because fishermen have cut down mangrove forests -- the Earths natural sea barrier. • Tourism development, sand mining and damming rivers upstream have also taken their toll in an area naturally prone to coastal erosion. • The community have realised their errors and are trying to replant the mangroves, but the situation may soon be out of their hands as global warming sends sea levels rising and powerful storms lashing the coast. • The process has been occurring over some time and accelerating with land use changes and local human activity, says Jitendra Shah, the World Banks environmental coordinator in Thailand. http://www.manager.co.th/Home/ViewNews.aspx?NewsID=9510000038286"

41. Issues Figure 11. Spot image taken in 1993 showing coastal erosion at Bang Khun Thian (JICA, 2001). http://www2.psu.ac.th/PresidentOffice/EduService/journal/28_2_pdf/01_sea_level_fall.pdf

42. Issues Figure 12b Figure 12a Figure 12a. A set of aerial photographs of shoreline changes from 1954 to 1976 (Fig.a) and from 1976 to 1995(Fig.b) from Petchaburi river mouth at Ban Laem to Laem Phukbia (ONREPP, 2003). http://www2.psu.ac.th/PresidentOffice/EduService/journal/28_2_pdf/01_sea_level_fall.pdf

43. Krairapanond, A.,2003 . Thailand’s Response to Climate Change. Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment, Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment ,Thailand. The 13th th Asia-Pacific Seminar on Climate Change , 2-5 September 2003,Miyazaki, Japan.

44. Thailand’s CDM Potential :Concluding Remarks Krairapanond, A.,2003 . Thailand’s Response to Climate Change. Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment, Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment ,Thailand. The 13th th Asia-Pacific Seminar on Climate Change , 2-5 September 2003,Miyazaki, Japan.

45. THE END