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Is Scientific Publishing About To Be Disrupted?

Explore how large organizations vanish, industry-wide disruptions occur, and why top blogs surpass traditional media financially. Learn why such shifts affect scientific publishing early on.

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Is Scientific Publishing About To Be Disrupted?

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  1. Is Scientific Publishing About To Be Disrupted? Michael Nielsen @michael_nielsen http://michaelnielsen.org/blog STM Conference, October 2009

  2. Kongo Gumi

  3. 578 CE

  4. Prince Shotoku

  5. Shitenno-Ji Temple

  6. almost 1,500 years

  7. 2005: 100+ employees 70 million $ revenue

  8. Masakazu Kongo 40th generation

  9. 2006: Liquidation Purchased by Takamatsu

  10. As an independent entity, Kongo Gumi no longer exists

  11. How is it that large, powerful organizations, with access to vast sums of money, and many talented, hardworking people, can simply disappear?

  12. most interesting when an entire industry is disrupted

  13. Data General

  14. None of these companies exist

  15. Napster founded CD Sales

  16. First quarter 2009

  17. First part of talk Why these disruptions happen How we can recognize them Second part of talk Scientific publishing is in the (very) early days of such a disruption

  18. Common explanations of disruption 1. The people in charge are stupid. Why couldn’t the record companies see things coming…

  19. Napster

  20. iTunes

  21. Last.fm

  22. pre-empt them by doing something similar first

  23. 2. The people in charge are malevolent.

  24. stupidity and malevolence sometimes play a role… …it’s a mistake to base an explanation on these factors.

  25. SMART

  26. GOOD

  27. FAIL

  28. underlying structural reasons cause the failure

  29. If you look at the newspapers and record companies and see stupid and malevolent people…

  30. SMART

  31. Good

  32. But if disruption can destroy SMART Good then it can destroy anybody

  33. Why are the top blogs thriving financially, while the newspapers are dying?

  34. news parasites

  35. WRONG

  36. TechCrunch Top 100 blogs in the world

  37. Started in 2005

  38. arguably the best reporting in the technology industry

  39. TechCrunch is thriving

  40. The New York Times is wilting

  41. Operating income down 50% first quarter

  42. TechCrunch’s operating costs are far lower, per word

  43. depressing the price of advertising

  44. Increased supply of ad space Old supply of published material ad space decreased price

  45. there’s a limited amount the newspapers can do to make themselves cheaper to run

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