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The ESPON Scientific Platform

Data, tools and scientific innovation. The ESPON Scientific Platform. Moritz Lennert - IGEAT - ULB. Overview. Expressionism or realism: Using regional data The vast treasures of the ESPON Database Limits to regional data: MAUP and disrupted time series

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The ESPON Scientific Platform

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  1. Data, tools and scientific innovation The ESPON Scientific Platform Moritz Lennert - IGEAT - ULB

  2. Overview Expressionism or realism: Using regional data The vast treasures of the ESPON Database Limits to regional data: MAUP and disrupted time series Possible solution for the future: Long-Term Database and cartographic techniques From data to messages: policy indicators Do It Yourself: ESPON tools for everyone ESPON DB and Data Navigator WebGIS HyperAtlas Experiments in vitro: Modelling techniques for territorial research Models to analyse the current situation Models to simulate and forecast the future A general model for territorial impact assessment Looking ahead: Prospective thinking Friendly discussions: Scientific peer review in ESPON ?

  3. Expressionism or realism: Using regional dataThe vast treasures of the ESPON Database • covers 29 countries 29 countries !!!

  4. Expressionism or realism: Using regional dataLimits to regional data: Disrupted time series and MAUP 1) Time series interrupted by change in data and region definitions 2) Modifiable Area Unit Problem: Results of spatial analyses depend on definition of studied units An illustration of MAUP: the variation of Urban-Rural Typology at different levels of territorial aggregation (NUTS 2 and NUTS 3) (Project 3.4.3 Proposals: • new hierarchies of territorial division for research and strategic policy making • development of interactive and dynamic cartographic methods • development of multiscalar methods of analysis

  5. Expressionism or realism: Using regional dataPossible solution for the future I: Long-Term Database Hierarchy of geographic entities, names Definitions of basic stock indicators (population, area, GDP) Definitions and formulas of complex indicators (pop. density, GDP/cap) The actual data Expert system for choice of estimation method Collection of estimation methods for missing data

  6. Expressionism or realism: Using regional dataPossible solution for the future II: Innovative cartography

  7. Expressionism or realism: Using regional dataFrom data to messages: policy indicators

  8. Do It Yourself: ESPON tools for everyoneESPON DB and Data Navigator

  9. Do It Yourself: ESPON tools for everyoneHyperAtlas and WebGIS • ESPON HyperAtlas: Innovative multiscalar cartography on your desktop • ESPON WebGis: Mapping the ESPON database online

  10. Experiments in vitro: Modelling techniques for territorial researchModels to analyse the state of the system • Used for the analysis of the situation of the modelled system in the present or past • Mostly pre-existing models, adapted to the specific needs of ESPON research • Most models concern transport theme: accessibility, flows, pollution, infrastructures, etc • Provide complex indicators • Examples: ICON index, various accessibility measures, logistic model of IT diffusal, etc.

  11. Experiments in vitro: Modelling techniques for territorial researchModels to simulate and forecast the future • deal with the future, based on different assumptions => forecast and impact assessment • Existing models used: SASI, CGEurope, STIMA, CAPRI, etc • Some ESPON babies: • MAcro-economic, Sectoral, Social and Territorial (MASST) model • Know Trans-European Networks (KTEN/K10) • Demographic Cohort-Survial model • RESSET (accessibility and economic development)

  12. Experiments in vitro: Modelling techniques for territorial researchA general model for territorial impact assessment Multicriteria Model with two main layers: 1) General assessment GA = Σc θc . PIMc c = criterion θc = weight PIM = general impact 2) Territorial assessment TIMr = Σc θc . Sr,c . (PIMc . PIr ). Par r = region Sr,c = sensitivity of region r to criterion c PI = policy intensity PA = policy applicability

  13. Looking ahead: Prospective thinking • Policy making = future-oriented => Applied scientific results have to respond to this need • Territorial development = very long-term • Much of what will happen is out of reach for « classical » (quantitative) scientific methods • ESPON provides prospective thinking in the form of the scenarios • Thinking beyond the verifiable and imagining the possible in scientifically informed creative prospective research • Permanent process depending on policy goals and general evolutions

  14. Friendly discussions: Scientific peer review in ESPON ? • If we want evidenced-based policy, we need solid evidence • Knowledge grows through controversial discussion • ESPON seminars always very polite:

  15. Friendly discussions: Scientific peer review in ESPON ? • We just had the first experience of « peer review » in ESPON • Can be a frustrating experience for all sides • Sometimes it feels like this:

  16. Friendly discussions: Scientific peer review in ESPON ? • But it advances everyone's knowledge • So, let's dare some more controversy: • Have a great seminar !

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